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Favourites of 2017: International Crisis Group on Myanmar
Favourites of 2017: International Crisis Group on Myanmar
Myanmar Foreign Minister and State Counselor Aung San Suu Kyi attended the opening ceremony of the Union Peace Conference at Naypyidaw, Myanmar’s capital city, on 12 January 2016. AFP/Ye Aung Thu
Briefing 149 / Asia

缅甸和平进程:实现政治对话

在历经了近70年的武装冲突之后,缅甸正面临着一个少有但逐渐消逝的机遇,即最终达成一个可容纳各方的联邦解决方案。政府须以更灵活的方式来打消反对派的疑虑,武装团体则不应在预备会谈中原地踏步,并参与到实质性的讨论中。

概述

在当前政府任期内通过政治谈判达成协议是解决缅甸近70年武装冲突的最佳机会。该冲突不仅使少数民族的生活苦不堪言,还阻碍了整个缅甸的发展。昂山素季及其政府已将和平进程视为其首要任务。尽管前任政府也做出过类似尝试,但昂山素季无疑具备了众多优势,例如她在国内的政治名望、广泛的选民支持和强有力的国际支持,包括中国给予的条件性支持。在这些因素的推动下,几乎所有武装团体都参加了8月31日开始的彬龙-21和平会谈,而前任政府则没能做到这一点。但若要取得真正的进展,政府和武装团体还需调整其采取的方法,并尽快开始进行实质性政治对话。

彬龙-21会议的重要意义不在于其内容,而在于其广泛接纳了各武装团体。但其面临的挑战仍不容低估。对许多武装团体而言,与会并不意味着支持进程,而是因为他们别无选择。他们之间,有多方认为其受到不公对待,而且会议组织混乱无序。最大的反对派武装组织佤邦联合党(UWSP)更是仅仅派遣了一个低级别的代表团,并于次日退出了会议。而近数月来,战斗不断升级,缅甸军方还动用了空中武力和远程轰炸,这则进一步破坏了各方之间的信任。

这些问题虽并非出人意料;而关键在于和平进程是否具备应变的韧性。彬龙-21会议虽已宣布,其将每六个月定期举行(下次会议定于2017年2月),但这一生硬拘泥的时间表无法为克服障碍提供必要的灵活性。同时,另一挑战则是,政府的和平秘书处,即民族和解与和平中心(NRPC)缺乏足够的权能。说服多数武装团体签署《全国停火协议》(NCA)将需要艰难的谈判。而政府和军方均已明确表明,NCA是其参与未来政治对话进程——此后的彬龙-21会议及相关讨论——的必要条件。但如果军方继续在地面采取强硬姿态,那这一过程将会更加困难。

先已有八个武装团体于2015年10月签署了《全国停火协议》,但至少仍有十支武装力量保持怀疑。包括佤邦联合党在内的一些组织已经有了更好的实质性自治制度,并担心签署停火协议会削弱他们的地位。其他力量则担心,一旦他们签署协议,新政府会采取更单边的和平进程措施,并将强制推行政治解决方案,而非通过谈判寻求和解。另还有三支未签署双边停火协议的武装团体则至政府要求于不顾,即拒绝发表在原则上停止武装斗争的声明。

政府应考虑在和平会议上采用更灵活的时间表,并在整个和平进程中克制单边强势的态度,从而给予各武装团体信心;其还应确保民间社会、女性和青年能更多地参与和平进程;并采取措施确保民族和解与和平中心在能力上得到必要的支持。

各武装团体则需要认识到,虽然他们对这一进程有正当的疑虑,但他们不太可能再有更好的、通过谈判达到政治解决的机遇。昂山素季已表示坚决支持联邦和民主的解决方案,而且她具备实现和平所需的、前所未有的政治名望,特别来自多数缅甸选民的支持。开始讨论方案轮廓的时候已经到了,各方不应继续在预备步骤上徘徊。

其它选择则差强人意,且时间并不站在武装份子一边。除非双方抓住当前的机遇,不令通过谈判达成和解的可能性失之交臂,否则接下来将多半是旷日持久的乱局,如此一来,少数民族的苦衷将难以得到解决,他们提出的联邦制度、平等待遇等要求更是无法实现。这不仅将破坏缅甸边境地区的和平稳定,更会阻扰缅甸成为一个繁荣、宽容、民主的国家。

仰光/布鲁塞尔,2016年10月19日

Impact Note / Asia

Favourites of 2017: International Crisis Group on Myanmar

Originally published in Lowy Institute

Looking back at 2017, Australia's Lowy Institute and contributors to its Lowy Interpreter website offer a selection of their favourite articles, books, films and TV programs of the year. This post, written by independent researcher Elliot Brennan, is part of the Favourites of 2017 debate thread and praises the role of Crisis Group's research in and analytical reports about Myanmar.

In a year of such mud and murk in Myanmar, far too little commentary has been well informed, balanced or timely.

Myanmar’s ballooning Facebook effect, which in 2015 emboldened many to vote in Aung San Suu Kyi’s landslide election victory, had a more sinister influence in the proliferation of hate speech in 2017. This ultimately led to conditions for what appears to have become the most deadly few months in modern Myanmar’s history.

There were few sources of consistently accurate and balanced information in the immensely emotional environment in which Myanmar exists for among news media, rights activists and too many casual analysts. That is an indictment on the state of commentary and the susceptibility to hyperbolic and emotive social media. Moreover, it has been wholly destructive in finding the solutions that such thorny problems need.

International Crisis Group has consistently cut through this echo chamber. Their nuanced and balanced reports on Myanmar have been a bedrock in a sea of false, misleading or downright dangerous reporting and advocacy from all sides. To their credit, the timely papers by ICG on the situation in Rakhine state, the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army, as well as Myanmar’s politics more generally, have proved distressingly prophetic. The reports are essential reading for anyone wanting to comment on Myanmar’s politics or the devastating events that have unfolded this year.

In 2018, we will no doubt need to find more oracles of balance and considered wisdom, lest Facebook and other more intentionally malign actors gobble up more of the hard-fought successes in the region and beyond.