icon caret Arrow Down Arrow Left Arrow Right Arrow Up Line Camera icon set icon set Ellipsis icon set Facebook Favorite Globe Hamburger List Mail Map Marker Map Microphone Minus PDF Play Print RSS Search Share Trash Crisiswatch Alerts and Trends Box - 1080/761 Copy Twitter Video Camera  copyview Youtube
Opportunities and Challenges Await Kyrgyzstan’s Incoming President
Opportunities and Challenges Await Kyrgyzstan’s Incoming President
Report 233 / Europe & Central Asia

中亚地区的水资源危机

水资源的分配争端使得拔汗那山谷(Ferghana Valley)地区日趋紧张的形势愈发恶化。为解决这一问题,吉尔吉斯斯坦、塔吉克斯坦和乌兹别克斯坦三国应立刻改变它们将水资源和能源作为政治工具的做法,并在就这一严峻问题寻求综合解决方案之前,三方应将重点放在如何达成一系列更现实的双边协定之上。

执行摘要

在中亚地区,水资源一直是引发矛盾和冲突的重要原因。吉尔吉斯斯坦和塔吉克斯坦两国拥有丰富的水资源,而其余三国则称其未能从该地区的两条主要河流——锡尔河(Syr Darya)和阿姆河(Amu Darya)——中获得它们应有的份额。锡尔河和阿姆河起源于天山山脉、帕米尔高原和兴都库什山脉,流经中亚地区汇入残存的咸海。其中,吉尔吉斯斯坦、塔吉克斯坦和乌兹别克斯坦三国水资源短缺的情况尤其严重、且日趋恶化。自2000年来,中亚地区的人口增长了近1000万人,原本就有限的耕地资源由于过度开垦和落后的农业技术而遭到进一步的破坏。该地区广泛的腐败和破旧的基础设施亦使问题进一步地恶化,同时气候变化也可能对这一地区产生长期的负面影响。在经济疲软和政权脆弱的情形之下,民族主义、边界纠纷和地区紧张局势使各国更加难以就水资源分配而达成共识、研制解决方案。该地区急需找到一个解决水资源及相关问题的新方法,即,建立一系列相关且易实现的双边协定,而不是妄想通过单个综合性方案来一劳永逸地解决问题。

随着苏联1991年解体的还有其在中亚地区实施的资源分配系统,并由此致使了该地区的水资源危机。原苏联体系下,在夏季,吉尔吉斯斯坦和塔吉克斯坦向哈萨克斯坦、土库曼斯坦和乌兹别克斯坦供水;在冬季,两国则接受来自哈萨克斯坦、土库曼斯坦和乌兹别克斯坦的煤炭和电力。到1990年代末,这一体系便已瓦解,当时各方虽签署了一系列的双边、地区协定和决议,但也未能解决矛盾。而国际预防危机组织曾于2002年指出的诸多问题——基础设施落后、水资源管理效率低下、灌溉技术落后——至今仍未得到解决,而其安全环境更是趋于恶化。

各国领导人均未表现出为解决重要地区性问题而通力合作的诚意。吉尔吉斯斯坦、塔吉克斯坦和乌兹别克斯坦受水资源危机影响最深,但三国之间的嫌隙却日趋加深。塔吉克斯坦总统埃莫马利·拉赫蒙(Emomali Rahmon)和乌兹别克斯坦总统伊斯拉姆·卡里莫夫(Islam Karimov)多年以来关系一直十分冷淡,卡里莫夫和他的部长们更是不断发出挑衅言辞。国际社会——包括俄罗斯、欧盟和美国在内——称若中亚各国仍然固守对国家利益的狭隘理解,他们便难以从中斡旋。若要解决各国在上游水电项目上的利益分歧,这需要它们进行深入且高层次的决议。尽管某些旨在改善供水的地区性努力已初见成效(多数为捐助项目),腐败却使得具有长远目标的行动计划付诸东流。吉尔吉斯斯坦、塔吉克斯坦和乌兹别克斯坦三国政府未能更新其对水依赖性强的产业(例如能源产业和农业),而这则增加了他们互相的依赖。

尽管水资源问题极为复杂,但却并非全然无望解决。某瑞士水资源专家指出,“水资源或会成为诱发冲突的导火索,但其也可能成为促进和平的驱动器。”作为一个客观性问题,水资源的公平分配和与之伴生的能源交换将有望为所有国家带来实际利益。若能把水资源问题从更为复杂的边界和飞地问题分离开、并进行单独探讨,那中亚各国则有望化解冲突、甚至最终消解冲突。更加完善的水资源基础设施和管理项目将有助于打造和平与政治稳定,同时促进发展和经济增长。

然而,由于各国之间缺乏信任,它们企图一揽子解决地区问题的努力均以失败告终。吉尔吉斯斯坦、塔吉克斯坦和乌兹别克斯坦(及其背后的国际盟友)应在三国交界的拔汗那山谷地区,为停止年复一年的水资源纠纷和冲突而有所行动。通过将水资源问题分解为更易处理的部分,三国及其国际盟友可从沿着概念和地理,线性地寻求循序渐进、阶段性的解决方案,而非企图通过一个方案来一劳永逸地解决所有资源问题。如果乌兹别克斯坦不愿参与,吉尔斯斯斯坦和塔吉克斯坦则应展开双边合作。与此同时,它们应寻求高层调停,并解决乌兹别克斯坦反对上游水电项目的问题。

这一设想未必一定奏效,但它至少能为上述三国提供——实现基础设施现代化、改进水资源管理能力、培养新一代技术专家——的机会。该系列协定的设想还将为其他急需合作解决的问题树立榜样、有望缓解地区矛盾冲突、并且同时改进该地区广大居民的生活条件。

比什凯克/布鲁塞尔,2014年9月11日

Presidential candidate Sooronbai Jeenbekov casts his ballot at a polling station during the presidential election in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan October 15, 2017. REUTERS/Vladimir Pirogov

Opportunities and Challenges Await Kyrgyzstan’s Incoming President

The inauguration of Kyrgyzstan’s new president on 24 November is a tribute to the country’s parliamentary democracy. But to overcome continued vulnerability, Sooronbai Jeenbekov must manage powerful southern elites, define the role of religion in society and spearhead reconciliation with Central Asian neighbours Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan.

Sooronbai Jeenbekov will be inaugurated as Kyrgyzstan’s fifth president on 24 November, the victor of a tight, unpredictable, contested but ultimately legitimate election. The new leader, a loyal member of the ruling Social Democratic Party of Kyrgyzstan (SDPK), won 54 per cent of the vote and gained a majority in every province but Chui and Talas – the home territory of the defeated main opposition candidate Omurbek Babanov.

As president, Jeenbekov will face a number of challenges and opportunities, both at home and in Central Asia. The state Committee for National Security (GKNB) on 4 November opened an investigation against Babanov for inciting ethnic hatred based on a speech he made on 28 September in an ethnic-Uzbek area of Osh, a city in southern Kyrgyzstan’s Ferghana Valley. Babanov called on Uzbeks to defend their rights and for any Kyrgyz police officers who harassed Uzbeks to be dismissed. Some observers see the GKNB case as politically motivated.

While tensions remain high in Osh, the epicentre of violent ethnic clashes that left 400 mostly Uzbeks dead in June 2010, unrest could also occur elsewhere. Babanov travelled abroad after the campaign, but if he returns he could be arrested at the airport, raising the possibility of protests in his stronghold of Talas, a city 300km west of Bishkek. His arrest and trial would undermine Kyrgyzstan’s international credibility, lay bare the politicisation of the security services and the judiciary, and show unwillingness to tackle deep-seated inter-ethnic issues in the south.

While tensions remain high in Osh, the epicentre of violent ethnic clashes that left 400 mostly Uzbeks dead in June 2010, unrest could also occur elsewhere.

Former President Almazbek Atambayev, also from the SDPK, was sometimes unpredictable but managed to balance competing regional and business interests inside Kyrgyzstan, key factors in the ousting of Presidents Kurmanbek Bakiev in 2010 and Askar Akayev in 2005. Jeenbekov will have to replicate this balancing act and make a strategic decision whether or not to reestablish central government control in Osh, which operates like a fiefdom. The latter risks upsetting heavy-weight figures in the south with vested interests, but in the long term, a failure to do so will perpetuate internal political tensions.

The new president will also have the opportunity to shape the debate about the role of religion in society. For too long – and much like other Central Asian states – Kyrgyzstan has overly securitised its response to those practicing non-traditional forms of Islam, creating tensions and resentments, while politicians leading a secular state make public displays of piety integral to their political personas. Kyrgyzstan is widely perceived as an easy target for terrorist activity, as the August 2016 attack on the Chinese embassy demonstrated. It will be essential to find a balance between assessing what are real risks and what are questions of religious freedoms and civil rights.

As soon as he takes office, Jeenbekov should make every effort to repair Kyrgyzstan’s relationship with Kazakhstan, which deteriorated spectacularly after President Atambayev accused Astana of meddling in the Kyrgyz presidential election to bolster Babanov. Astana responded by introducing strict customs controls on the Kyrgyz-Kazakh border citing concerns about Chinese goods being smuggled through Kyrgyzstan. The disruption on the border is negatively affecting Kyrgyzstan’s economy and Kyrgyzstan has complained to the World Trade Organization and to the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union, a trade bloc of which Kazakhstan is a founding member. Russia has so far failed to make any meaningful comment on the standoff.

The degree to which Kazakhstan is motivated by anger at Atambayev or genuine concerns about cross-border smuggling is unclear. Still, it will fall to Jeenbekov to spearhead a reconciliation. How open-minded Kazakhstan will be to resolving the spat will also depend on whether or not they see Jeenbekov as a strong, independent leader or merely Atambayev’s puppet.

There is now scope to improve relations with Uzbekistan in a way that was unimaginable before President Shavkat Mirziyoyev took office in December 2016. Much of the initiative is coming from the Uzbek side but the amount of progress made between the two states is remarkable. Regional cooperation, in the long term, will foster stability in Central Asia and Kyrgyzstan can play a leading role in both practicing and promoting the type of cooperation that defuses tensions in border areas and over shared resources such as water and energy. By doing so Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan can provide a model of collaboration and peacebuilding in the region.

Having been the first country in Central Asia to see a president voluntarily leave his post at the end of his constitutionally mandated term, Kyrgyzstan is in many respects light years ahead of its neighbours.

Kyrgyzstan is still a young parliamentary democracy in a difficult neighbourhood. If Jeenbekov is to continue Atambayev’s program of fighting corruption, efforts need to extend beyond targeting the SDPK’s political opponents. Kyrgyzstan and its partners should begin to address how corruption in politics can be tackled. Beyond the technical success of casting votes electronically, there are many opportunities for illegal practices. Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) election observers said the presidential elections were legitimate, but local concerns focus on arrests of opposition figures, vote buying and the misuse of administrative resources.

Having been the first country in Central Asia to see a president voluntarily leave his post at the end of his constitutionally mandated term, Kyrgyzstan is in many respects light years ahead of its neighbours. Tajikistan could be facing a potentially destabilising transition in 2020, and Kazakhstan’s President Nursultan Nazarbayev, 77, cannot hold power forever. Any regional stress will be quickly felt in Bishkek, another reason that Jeenbekov should focus on bolstering Kyrgyzstan’s long-term stability while the situation is calm.