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CrisisWatch Ukraine

Unchanged Situation

Despite hopes for progress over resolution Donbas conflict during 9 Dec Normandy summit, month saw increase in military and civilian casualties in Donbas conflict zone. Although Kyiv and Moscow agreed to withdraw troops at three additional locations by March 2020, conflict parties have yet to formally agree on any locations after two meetings of Trilateral Contact Group (TCG) in Minsk. Kyiv insists on resuming control of border with Russia in uncontrolled territories of Donetsk and Luhansk regions before holding elections there; Kyiv envoy and ex-president Kuchma 16 Jan asked for new TCG subgroup devoted to border issues, which would also address necessary border access for OSCE monitors; Moscow and de facto leaders have not responded; Kyiv’s TCG envoy for political affairs Reznikov 23 Jan said “Minsk agreements need to be re-examined” in reference to border handover. Russian President Putin 11 Jan reiterated calls for Ukraine to amend its constitution, in accordance with Minsk agreements, to recognise special status of areas currently under separatist control. Associate of Putin’s aide Vladislav Surkov, who oversees Russian support and control of separatist-held Donbas, said 25 Jan that Surkov had resigned due to shift in Moscow’s Ukraine policy; Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov denied any such shift. Dmitry Kozak, newly-appointed head of Russia’s presidential administration, is expected to take on his responsibilities. Use of heavy weaponry increased mid-Jan, with fighting concentrated east of Zolote disengagement area, near Shyrokyne, Avdiivka, and Svitlodarsk. Per official and independent sources, govt forces 1-29 Jan lost eleven servicemen at contact line, thirty-three injured; Russian-backed fighters lost from three to at least nine; at least three civilians injured due to mines and explosive devices, one person injured by shelling.

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Reports & Briefings

In The News

24 Sep 2019
Ukraine is really dependent on [U.S.] aid and support, and that makes it an easy country to influence, because of that, at least on paper. Vice

Olga Oliker

Program Director, Europe and Central Asia
16 Aug 2016
Russia is intensely frustrated by the lack of movement on the February 2015 Minsk agreement, and has sought to put the onus for the lack of progress on Ukraine. Reuters

Paul Quinn-Judge

Former Senior Adviser, Ukraine and Russia

Latest Updates

Rebels without a Cause: Russia’s Proxies in Eastern Ukraine

Russia and the separatists it backs in Ukraine’s east are no longer quite on the same page, especially since the Kremlin abandoned ideas of annexing the breakaway republics or recognising their independence. The rift gives the new Ukrainian president an opportunity for outreach to the east’s embattled population, including by relaxing the trade embargo.

Is Russia Changing Its Calculus in Eastern Ukraine?

Amid expectations that Russia will test Ukraine’s new president with escalatory actions, it appears that its calculus is to wait for Kyiv’s administration to make the first move – while quietly helping the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics entrench themselves economically.

Getting Aid to Separatist-held Ukraine

The front lines in eastern Ukraine are slowly freezing in place, as is civilian deprivation in the conflict zone. An embargo, bureaucracy and distrust conspire to keep humanitarian aid out. Russia and Ukraine should find politically neutral ways to unblock the flow of assistance.

A Shadow over Ukraine’s Presidential Election

With Ukraine’s establishment forecasting doom after the presidential runoff, the far right’s influence on politics is impossible to ignore. Its resurgence is both a symptom and a cause of the country’s ills: there is less daylight between it and the political mainstream than either admits.

Reducing the Human Cost of Ukraine’s War

A confrontation in the Azov Sea in November 2018 exacerbated hostilities between Russia and Ukraine and dashed hopes for an early resolution to the six-year war. In this excerpt from our Watch List 2019 for European policymakers, Crisis Group urges the EU to continue its support for a negotiated settlement and pressure Kyiv to protect civilians.

Our People

Katharine Quinn-Judge

Senior Analyst, Ukraine

Bogdan Voron

Giustra Fellow, Ukraine