Violent clashes erupted between hardline Sunni group and law-enforcement agencies in Punjab; deadly militant attacks and military operations persisted. Calling for release of detained party chief and expulsion of French ambassador, Tehreek-e-Labaik Pakistan (TLP) 21 Oct vowed to march from Punjab’s Lahore city to capital Islamabad. In violent clashes, TLP activists killed seven police officers, including two in Lahore 22 Oct, and four 27-28 Oct some 50km away, while injuring more than 600 members of security forces in Punjab province. Holding negotiations with TLP leaders, interior ministry 24 Oct said it accepted TLP demands, including release of chief and detained activists. Protests for expelling French ambassador and deadly clashes with police however persisted, prompting paramilitary Rangers 27 Oct to deploy in Punjab. Information ministry 27 Oct said govt decided no further negotiations with “militant group” would take place until protests end; yet interior ministry same day said talks with TLP leadership ongoing. Meanwhile, militant attacks and security operations continued at high intensity. In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, Pakistani Taliban attack 2 Oct killed five soldiers in North Waziristan district. Militants 4, 16, 20 Oct killed two soldiers, police officer and local politician in North Waziristan, Hangu, Bajaur and Lower Dir districts. Bomb blast 7 Oct killed three people in North Waziristan district. Roadside bomb 20 Oct killed two soldiers and two police officers in Bajaur district. Militant attacks 22 Oct killed two soldiers in North Waziristan district; four police officers 26 Oct in Mianwali district, two soldiers 26-27 Oct night in Kurram district, and two soldiers 27 Oct in North Waziristan district. In Balochistan, roadside bomb 18 Oct killed police officer in Quetta district; militant attack 20 Oct killed soldier in Kech district. PM Khan 1 Oct disclosed govt was negotiating with some factions of Pakistani Taliban, Pakistani Taliban group in North Waziristan same day confirmed information. Interior minister 4 Oct however said no talks “have taken place yet”, and negotiations “will be carried out only with those who lay down arms” and abide by constitution.

Political tensions persisted amid plans for new govt-controlled central media authority; authorities continued to debate ways to engage with new Afghan govt. Relations between ruling Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party and Election Commission deteriorated after commission 7 Sept raised 37 objections to PTI’s proposal to introduce electronic voting machines in next general election, stressed mechanism’s inability to counter all types of fraud; in response, Federal Minister for Information Fawad Chaudhry 10 Sept called commission’s logic “strange”, Federal Railways Minister Azam Swati same day accused body of taking bribes to rig election, called for such institutions to be “set on fire”. Journalist unions 11 Sept rejected govt’s proposed Pakistan Media Development Authority, which would be authorised to regulate all media, said it was “unconstitutional”, a step to “muzzle” freedoms. Members of media, lawyers’ groups and human rights activists 13 Sept held protests outside parliament as President Alvi addressed both houses; opposition and independent members boycotted Alvi’s address, vowed to vote against proposed bill; human rights minister next day said law had yet to be given “final shape”, suggesting govt could postpone placing bill before parliament. Regionally, govt had yet to decide if it will recognise newly announced acting Taliban govt (see Afghanistan); FM Qureshi 21 Sept said if Taliban want recognition “they have to be more sensitive and more receptive to international opinion and norms”. PM Imran Khan in 24 Sept virtual UN General Assembly address called on international community to “incentivize”, “strengthen and support” current (Taliban) govt and warned unstable Afghanistan “will again become a safe haven for international terrorists”. Earlier, Qureshi 15 Sept said govt would consider giving amnesty to Pakistan’s Taliban members who renounced violence; opposition leader and Pakistan Peoples’ Party chair Bhutto Zardari 17 Sept said that would be “an insult” to victims. Meanwhile, Pakistani Taliban attacks in regions near Afghan border continued; in South Waziristan’s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, Pakistani Taliban attack 15 Sept killed seven Pakistani soldiers. Militant attack 26 Sept killed one paramilitary soldier and injured two others in Mach town, Balochistan province. U.S. Sec State Antony Blinken 14 Sept said U.S. would reassess its relationship with Pakistan in coming weeks.

Taliban’s victory in Afghanistan heightened concerns regarding associated security risks for Pakistan, while deadly militant violence persisted. Following Taliban takeover of Afghan capital Kabul in mid-Aug, President Alvi 17 Aug said that Islamabad wants assurances “that Afghan territory will never be used against any other country”; govt same day said they would make decision on recognising Taliban govt “after consulting with regional and international powers”. Military 27 Aug told journalists “cordial” relations were expected with incoming Afghan govt, which would take “effective measures” against Pakistan Taliban. Cross-border gunfire from Afghanistan 30 Aug killed two Pakistani soldiers; military retaliated, claiming it killed two or three attackers. Meanwhile, militant attacks and security operations persisted. In Balochistan province, Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) militants 8 Aug killed two police officers in provincial capital Quetta; security forces 10-11 Aug claimed to have killed five BLA militants in Quetta; attack on Frontier Corps vehicle 14 Aug killed one soldier in Loralai district; BLA militants 20 Aug in suicide attack in Gwadar district killed two children and injured Chinese national; bomb blast 21 Aug killed one officer and two soldiers in Gichik area; BLA militants 26 Aug killed four security personnel in Ziarat and Panjgur districts. In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, militant attacks 1, 6 Aug killed three soldiers in North Waziristan and Khyber districts; 2 Aug killed police officer providing security to polio vaccination team in Dera Ismail Khan district. In South Waziristan, counter-insurgency operations 13, 18 Aug left two soldiers killed. Elsewhere, other violent attacks took place. Notably, in Sindh province’s capital Karachi, grenade attack 15 Aug killed 13 relatives of Awami National Party leader and of Islamist Jamaat-e-Islami local leader; clash between two Sunni factions 18 Aug left one dead. In Punjab province’s Bahawalgar city, grenade attack targeting Shia Muharram procession 19 Aug killed at least two and injured more than 50; counter-terrorism police 18 Aug arrested two alleged al-Qaeda members in Lahore city. Also in Punjab, Muslim mob 4 Aug vandalised Hindu temple in Bhong city after release of eight-year-old Hindu boy accused of blasphemy 24 July; 7 Aug 50 people suspected of participating in attack arrested.

Top officials expressed concerns over possible spillover effects of intensifying conflict in Afghanistan, while militant attacks and counter-insurgency operations continued. Senior military and political leaders expressed concern about impact on security of Afghanistan’s conflict and tensions heightened with Kabul (see Afghanistan). Army chief Qamar Javed Bajwa and intelligence chief Faiz Hameed 1 July warned victory by Afghan Taliban would rejuvenate Pakistani Taliban and voiced concerns about potential additional influx of up to 700,000 Afghan refugees. Interior Minister Sheikh Rashid Ahmed 6 July said Pakistan would not allow Afghan refugees to enter but would establish refugee camps along border if situation required. Govt same day announced closure of Torkham – key border crossing in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province – citing COVID-19 concerns. Authorities 14 July closed border crossing in Balochistan’s Chaman district after Afghan Taliban captured bordering district, but 26 July reopened it for trade after reportedly consulting Taliban officials. FM Qureshi and National Security Advisor Moeed Yusuf 9 July warned that Pakistani Taliban fighters could enter Pakistan disguised as Afghan refugees; Army spokesperson Major General Babar Iftikhar 11 July emphasised ‘‘Pakistan is only a facilitator of the Afghan peace process – not a guarantor’’. Yusuf 30 July met U.S. counterpart Jake Sullivan in Washington; Sullivan said pair discussed “urgent need” for negotiated political settlement in Afghanistan. Meanwhile, militant attacks and security operations continued. Notably, in Balochistan province, counter-terrorism police 6 July killed five suspected Baloch militants on outskirts of Quetta district; militant attack 15 July killed two soldiers in coastal Pasni town in Gwadar district. In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, police operation 3 July reportedly killed two Pakistani Taliban militants in Dera Ismail Khan district. Militant attack 5 July killed three soldiers in North Waziristan district. Security operation 13 July killed three militants and two soldiers in Kurram district. In South Waziristan district, security operation against militants 18 July killed one soldier. In major attack on Chinese workers, suspected car bomb 14 July killed nine Chinese engineers as well as two civilians and two soldiers in Upper Kohistan district capital in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province; unidentified gunmen 28 July shot and wounded Chinese national in Karachi city.

Political tensions heightened following controversial electoral reforms, while militant attacks and counter-insurgency operations continued. Despite opposition and Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) concerns, ruling Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party 10 June introduced new electoral bill, which National Assembly same day endorsed. ECP 16 June issued objections to at least 45 amendments (out of 72) to electoral law, as it deemed some unconstitutional, and others could undermine free and fair elections. Opposition Pakistan Muslim League (PML-N) leader 9 June questioned Supreme Court’s failure to protect judiciary during appeal of High Court judge who was removed from his post in 2018 after publicly accusing inter-services intelligence chief of interfering in corruption cases against former PM Nawaz Sharif; bar associations and councils 18 June called for independent high-level commission to look into allegations. Financial Action Task Force 25 June retained Pakistan on grey list for strategic deficiencies in counter-terrorism financing and anti-money laundering regimes. Meanwhile, militant attacks and counter-insurgency operations continued. Pakistani Taliban 3 June claimed killing two police officers in capital Islamabad. In Balochistan, counter-insurgency operation left soldier and two militants dead in Kharan district 11 June; bomb attack 14 June killed four soldiers guarding mine on Marget-Quetta road. Militant attacks 17 June killed soldier in Turbat district, five soldiers in Sibi district 25 June and one soldier in Kech district 28 June. In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, bomb attack 2 June killed soldier in South Waziristan district; security operations left two soldiers and four alleged Pakistani Taliban militants dead in North Waziristan 19-20 June; and militants 9 June killed two police officers in Mardan district. In Lahore city, car bomb explosion 23 June killed at least three and injured 21, including children. In Karachi city, gunman 16 June killed Jamaat-e-Islami leader; armed assailants next day injured PTI leader Isa Khan and killed his wife. Internationally, PM Imran Khan 4 June warned “Taliban feel they have won the war” ever since U.S. announced date for troop withdrawal from Afghanistan. FM Qureshi 14 June urged Afghan leaders to ensure peace process succeed, emphasised Pakistan’s stake in process and denied Pakistani support to any Taliban faction.

Political tensions continued to run high, and militants killed more than a dozen security forces in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Opposition remained divided over results of last month’s by-election in Karachi city, where Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) rejected victory of Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) despite 8 May vote recount. PML-N and PPP however same day jointly opposed presidential ordinance authorising Election Commission to procure electronic voting machines and enable overseas Pakistanis to vote in 2023 parliamentary elections. Tensions between ruling party and opposition increased when govt 8 May refused to allow opposition PML-N leader Shahbaz Sharif to leave for UK for medical treatment, despite previous day’s decision by Lahore High Court to allow for one-time visit. Following Tehreek-e-Labaik Pakistan’s violent April anti-govt protests, Punjab counter-terrorism authorities 8 May registered four cases against senior TLP leaders for instigating new protests to oust French ambassador. In response to European Parliament’s resolution condemning blasphemy laws in late April, govt 3 May agreed to introduce new legislation to address rights issues in line with EU agreements. Militant attacks in May left more than a dozen security forces dead. In Balochistan province, road bomb blast 3 May killed two police officers in Arawan district; Pakistani Taliban 5 May killed four soldiers in cross-border attack in Zhob district; 8 May killed three soldiers in Quetta and Turbat districts; drive-by shooting 10 May killed two police in Mastung district. Seven killed in 21 May bomb explosion at Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam’s Palestine solidarity rally in Chaman town. In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, Pakistani Taliban attack 4 May left two soldiers dead in Bajaur district. Operation against Pakistani Taliban in North Wazirstan district 5 May killed four soldiers and two militants, while one soldier killed in cross-border militant attack 22 May; militants 9 May also killed police in Lakki Marwat district. Afghan President Ghani 11 May accused Pakistan of “operating an organised system of support” for Taliban and said “question of peace or hostility is now in Pakistani hands”; Pakistan 14 May summoned Afghan ambassador reportedly to protest comments.

Deadly unrest erupted after political-religious group launched nationwide protests against ruling party; militant attacks continued at high intensity. Ruling Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) govt faced its most serious security crisis during its two-and-a-half years in power amid violent protests throughout country. Tehreek-e-Labaik (TLP) chief Saad Hussain Rizvi 11 April announced countrywide protests planned for 20 April in protest at govt’s failure to abide by Nov 2020 agreement to deport French ambassador over cartoons deemed blasphemous; authorities next day arrested Rizvi in Lahore city. Arrest triggered violent protests, killing four police officers and injuring at least 100; TLP claimed three supporters killed. Govt 15 April banned TLP under anti-terrorismlaw. Protests ended after govt 20 April accepted most TLP demands, including discussing French ambassador’s expulsion in Parliament, and releasing detained leaders and activists. PTI parliamentarian 20 April introduced resolution in Parliament. Yet, opposition parties’ rejection of the proposal to form special parliamentary committee to discuss issue risks renewed TLP protests. Unity among Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM), 11-party opposition alliance including Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) and Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP), further fragmented after five PDM parties 3 April opted to form separate opposition block in senate. PTI candidate 11 April lost by large margin to PML-N’s candidate for seat in Punjab’s Sialkot district. Militant attacks and security operations continued. Notably, Pakistani Taliban suicide car attack on hotel in Balochistan’s capital Quetta 21 April killed five and wounded scores; attack possibly targeted visiting Chinese ambassador staying in hotel. Bomb blast 28 April killed police officer in Balochistan’s Qilla Abdullah district; earlier, bomb blast at football tournament 13 April injured at least 14 civilians in Hub district. Security forces 3 and 4 April claimed to have killed two Pakistani Taliban militants in North Waziristan, and Pakistani Taliban militant 13 April in South Waziristan district. Police 11 April claimed killing previous night high-profile Pakistani Taliban militant in Rawalpindi city, Punjab province. Internationally, Russian FM Sergei Lavrov 7-8 April met with PM Khan, Army Chief Javed Bajwa and FM Mahmood Qureshi; agreed on deepening defence and counter-terrorism cooperation. 

Tensions continued between ruling Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) and opposition amid elections, while deadly militant violence persisted. Following the victory of the 11-party opposition alliance that includes Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) and Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) in almost all Feb by-elections to the national and provincial legislatures, political tensions remained high with PM Khan’s PTI govt. In line with Feb decision from Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP), Supreme Court 1 March ruled Senate elections must be held under secret ballot, nullifying govt’s request to hold elections through open ballot. PML-N leadership 11 March accused govt of using state institutions, specifically security agencies, to help their candidate in election for Senate chair; PTI candidate Muhammad Sadiq Sanjrani next day won election. Amid ongoing tensions between the top electoral body, and the PTI govt, PTI ministers 15 March called for the resignations of the entire ECP leadership. PPP next day opposed PML-N demand to resign from federal and provincial parliaments, straining opposition’s unity; tensions heightened between them after appointment 26 March of PPP nominee as Senate opposition leader. In Balochistan province, bomb 5 March killed five in Sibi city Baloch militants next day left two Pakistan Navy officers dead in Gwadar district; Pakistani Taliban bomb attack outside paramilitary prison in Chaman city 23 March killed four. Meanwhile, security forces 8 March killed five Baloch militants in operation in Mastung district. In North Waziristan district, security forces 7 March claimed to have killed at least eight militants, including three commanders of Pakistani Taliban, in Deta Khel town; security operation 17 March killed one militant and two civilians in Swat district; bomb blast 25 March injured Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam leader in Bajaur district. In Punjab province, successive militant attacks 7 March killed one police officer in Rawalpindi and one in Islamabad. In Karachi city, Balochistan Liberation Army-claimed explosion 15 March killed one soldier and injured ten others in Orangi Town. Pakistani Taliban 12 March threatened organisers of International Women’s Day march; Islamist groups same day held protests demanding govt prosecute march organisers for blasphemy, which carries death sentence; Peshawar court 25 March ordered registration of case.

Violent clashes erupted during local elections, and militant attacks continued at high intensity. Political tensions continued between PM Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) govt and Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM), 11-party opposition alliance that includes Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) and Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP). President Alvi 6 Feb signed Elections Amendment Ordinance 2021 to allow upcoming Senate elections to be held with “open and identifiable ballot” rather than secret ballots; PDM same day rejected ordinance, said it violated constitution while Pakistan Bar Council 8 Feb said it is based on “malicious intent”. Local by-elections held throughout Feb sparked low-level violence; notably, clashes between PTI and PML-N party workers 19 Feb killed two in one Punjab province by-election; Election Commission 25 Feb subsequently ordered re-election there on 18 March, said local polls had not been fair or transparent. Meanwhile, in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) province, Pakistani Taliban 3 Feb killed two in North Waziristan district; militants 12 and 18 Feb killed nine soldiers in South Waziristan and 12 Feb killed Ahmadi doctor in Peshawar city; Pakistan Taliban commander 22 Feb shot dead four female aid workers in North Waziristan; security forces next day killed militant commander, and 26 Feb killed another Pakistan Taliban commander in South Waziristan. Sindh police 26 Feb killed two alleged Pakistani Taliban militants in Sukkur city. Afghan Taliban commander 28 Feb shot dead in Peshawar city (KPK). In Balochistan province, explosions targeting Kashmir solidarity rallies 5 Feb killed two and injured at least 24 in Quetta and Sibi cities. Local security forces claimed militants shot dead three Punjabi labourers 8 Feb in Kalat district; militants 14 Feb killed soldier in Kech district, and 18 Feb killed five soldiers in Quetta and Kohlu districts. Inter-governmental body Financial Action Task Force met 25 Feb, said it would keep Pakistan on “grey list” until June plenary. Internationally, Army chief Qamar Javed Bajwa 19 Feb met visiting U.S. Central Command head General Kenneth McKenzie, and along with FM Qureshi same day met Russia’s Special Envoy to Afghanistan Zamir Kabulov to discuss Afghan peace process; FM Qureshi 26 Feb also met visiting Afghan president’s special envoy.

Tensions between ruling Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) and opposition persisted while Islamic State (ISIS) claimed major attack on Hazara community. Political tensions ran high between PTI govt and Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM), 11-party opposition alliance including Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) and Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP), as opposition held anti-govt rallies throughout month. Demonstrators 3 Jan gathered in Punjab province’s Bahawalpur district, calling for PM Khan’s resignation; 19 Jan held rally in capital Islamabad calling for an early ruling by Election Commission of Pakistan on 2014 case alleging PTI received funding from illegal foreign sources. Meanwhile, violence and militant attacks continued. In Balochistan province (south west), ISIS 3 Jan claimed responsibility for killing 11 miners from Hazara Shia community in Machh, small mining town. Protests by Shia political parties and other groups condemning killings were held countywide, including in Karachi city which has large Shia population. Khan 9 Jan met with Hazara delegate members in Balochistan’s capital Quetta and reiterated claims that India was backing ISIS to ferment sectarian strife (see Kashmir). Also in Balochistan, militant attack on Frontier Corps checkpost 9 Jan injured four in Turbat city. In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province (north west), cross-border attack by militants on checkpost 6 Jan killed one soldier in Mohmand district; attack on polio vaccination team 12 Jan killed police officer in Karak district; militant attack 15 Jan killed soldier in North Waziristan district. Across border, bomb attack in Afghanistan’s Nangarhar province 28 Jan reportedly killed chief of Pakistani militant group Laskhar-e-Islami. Supreme Court same day acquitted Omar Saeed Sheikh, principal accused in 2002 beheading of American journalist Daniel Pearl; in response, U.S. Sec of State Antony Blinken said U.S. was ready to prosecute Sheikh. Pakistani govt continued engagement in Afghan peace process; Pakistan FM 21 Jan urged incoming U.S. administration to “persevere” with peace process. Earlier, U.S. Afghanistan peace envoy Zalmay Khalilzad 4 Jan met with army chief Javed Bajwa and Inter-Services Intelligence director general Lt. General Hamid, day before intra-Afghan talks resumed in Qatar’s capital Doha.  In confirmation hearing, new U.S. Sec Def General Lloyd Austin 12 Jan called Pakistan “essential partner in any peace process in Afghanistan”.