The war in Yemen, which escalated in March 2015 when a Saudi-led coalition intervened on behalf of the internationally recognised government against Huthi rebels aligned with former President Ali Abdullah Saleh, has turned a poor country into a humanitarian catastrophe: hunger and fighting could provoke mass famine and waves of refugees; the conflict could destabilise Saudi Arabia; and both sides appear locked in a cycle of escalating violence, derailing UN peace talks. Crisis Group’s focus is on the negotiations: introducing ourselves at key points, shaping the debate, proposing solutions and encouraging stakeholders to modify positions based on our analysis. Concerted effort is required to convince the parties to accept the UN’s roadmap as the basis for a compromise that would end foreign intervention and allow Yemenis to make peace.
In response to repeated attacks by the Houthis on commercial shipping in the Red Sea, the U.S. and UK launched airstrikes overnight 11-12 January against Houthi positions in Yemen. In this Q&A, Crisis Group looks at the implications.
Red Sea crisis continued amid ongoing Houthi attacks and U.S.-UK airstrikes, clashes erupted between Houthis and govt-aligned forces in south, and new Houthi currency widened economic fault lines.
Houthis targeted international shipping in adjacent waters. Houthis continued attacks on international shipping in Red Sea and Gulf of Aden: notably, Houthis 7 April claimed targeting two Israeli ships, UK ship and number of U.S. frigates over 72-hour period; 10 April claimed targeting four vessels, including U.S. warship; 24 April said it targeted U.S. and Israeli ships; 29 April fired three missiles at vessel in Red Sea. Group 26 April launched drone attack targeting vessel some 600km off coast in Arabian Sea/Indian Ocean, in first confirmed assault at such range. In response, U.S. 1 April destroyed unmanned surface vessel, throughout April shot down Houthi armed drones, while U.S. and UK airstrikes 1 April targeted Houthi locations in Hodeida province and capital Sanaa; Houthis 8 April reported that U.S. airstrike injured civilian in Hodeida governorate. U.S. and UK 15 April reportedly conducted airstrikes in Taiz governorate. Israel’s repeated threats to launch ground invasion in Gaza’s Rafah city could prompt Houthis to escalate maritime attacks (see Israel-Palestine).
In south, hostilities broke out between Houthis and rival forces. Clashes between Houthis and separatist Southern Transitional Council, part of internationally-recognised Presidential Leadership Council (PLC), late March erupted along Karsh front in Lahj governorate, reflecting increasing tensions on western coast where Houthis are attempting to consolidate positions near Mocha city and Bab al-Mandeb Strait to forestall possible ground operations against them. Houthis 3 April reportedly attacked forces of PLC, allegedly killing eleven fighters. Houthi drone 12 April reportedly killed at least three. Houthis 20 April announced clashes with govt forces killed four Houthi officers. Shelling 26 April killed three women and two girls in Taiz’s Maqbna district; govt and Houthis exchanged accusations over incident.
Houthis launched new currency, escalating economic war with govt. Houthi-controlled Central Bank in capital Sanaa late March issued new metal 100 riyal coin in Houthi-governed areas in north to replace damaged banknotes; move is expected to exacerbate financial divide with PLC-controlled Aden Central Bank and lead to further devaluation of riyal.
[The] Houthis wanted to send a message: We are the group that is most committed to Gaza, not just in words but in action.
What's happening in the Red Sea will have a huge impact on the current political process between the Saudis and Houthis.
The visit of both the Saudis and the Omanis aims to discuss the final details of the [Yemen] truce extension agreement, which is expected to be announced very soon.
The temporary cessation of hostilities in Yemen, the longest since the start of the war, has given Yemeni civilians much-needed breathing room after eight years of war.
For over eighteen months, Saudi Arabia and Yemen’s Houthi rebels have been deep in discussions about a formal long-term ceasefire in their eight-year war. In this Q&A, Crisis Group expert Ahmed Nagi takes the temperature of the slow-moving talks.
Why Local Grievances Cannot Be Overlooked in Any Peace Process
The eight-member body heading Yemen’s internationally recognised government lacks a common vision for the country’s future. With Saudi Arabia looking to exit the Yemeni war, and negotiations with the Huthi rebels on the horizon, now is the time for the council to fix its problems.
After nearly eight years of war in Yemen, talks are under way between the Huthi rebels and Saudi Arabia. Yet, by themselves, these discussions cannot bring hostilities to a close. The UN should begin laying the groundwork for negotiations that include all the conflict parties.
Washington Can Help Broker a Lasting Peace
Yemen’s six-month truce is up for renewal on 2 October. The UN and external powers should redouble their efforts to forge agreement on an expanded deal. If those look set to fall short, however, they should propose interim arrangements that avert a return to major combat.
A floating oil storage facility in Yemeni waters is on the verge of breaking or blowing up. Time is running out to raise the remaining $20 million needed for a salvage operation to prevent ecological and economic damage of historic proportions.
Taiz, a city in central Yemen, is besieged by Huthi rebels and practically cut off from the rest of the country. Restored road access would save lives and build trust that could help bring peace to Yemen, but time is short.
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