Algeria faces interlocking political and socio-economic challenges three years after a long-awaited presidential transition. A largely peaceful protest movement called the Hirak – prompted by the ex-president's attempt to prolong his tenure but driven by deeper grievances – filled the streets on Fridays for much of the period 2019-2021. The Hirak has faded, but its goals are unrealised, and renewed unrest is an ever present possibility. Tensions with Morocco, including over Western Sahara, also loom, threatening to roil North Africa. Through fieldwork and engagement with senior officials, Crisis Group works to enhance Algeria’s contribution to stability and conflict resolution in a troubled neighbourhood.
Le chef de l’Etat algérien, Abdelmadjid Tebboune, a convoqué des élections législatives anticipées qui se tiendront le 12 juin. Dans ce Q&A, l’expert de Crisis Group Michael Ayari explique pourquoi ce scrutin pourrait marquer l’entrée dans une nouvelle phase d’instabilité.
Political jostling continued ahead of Sept presidential elections; relations with United Arab Emirates (UAE) remained tense.
Parties continued positioning for 7 Sept vote. Anticipation for presidential polls grew as several politicians announced candidacies. Belkacem Sahli, president of nationalist party National Republican Alliance, 5 May reiterated intention to run on behalf of coalition of several small parties, while Louisa Hanoune, Sec Gen of Workers’ Party and three-time previous candidate, 18 May announced she would be on ballot. Meanwhile, amid persistent reports of internal splits within security forces over who to support in vote, President Tebboune 8 May gave pro-military speech at army headquarters.
Tebboune boycotted Arab League summit due to tensions with Emiratis. Tebboune 16 May avoided Arab League summit in Bahrain’s capital Manama reportedly due to strains with UAE. Tensions may be linked to Emirati support for military authorities in Mali whose ties with Algeria have become strained, with reports govt rejected several Gulf countries’ mediation initiatives. Reuters media 6 May reported Algeria may cancel gas delivery to Spanish company Naturgy if firm’s shares are bought by Emirati firm TAQA.
New regional grouping held first external meeting. Interior ministers of Algeria, Libya and Tunisia 2 May met Italian counterpart Matteo Piantedosi in Italian capital Rome as part of new three-party grouping, amid ongoing Algiers-Rabat tensions and persistent rumours of creation of new bloc of central North African states as alternative to pre-existing body Arab Maghreb Union that includes Mauritania and Morocco.
In other important developments. Worker’s Party head Hanoune early May demanded govt reverse ban on demonstrations in support of Palestinian cause; govt 28 May shared draft UN Security Council resolution demanding immediate ceasefire in Gaza. Military 2 May announced it had killed jihadist in Tinzaouatine commune on Malian border; operation followed late April killing of another jihadist in Bordj-Badji-Mokhtar sector also on border.
Morocco cannot follow Algeria in terms of military spending, so a military alliance with Israel is a way to balance the power with Algeria.
We're seeing a diplomatic war [over Western Sahara], where both sides [Algeria and Morocco] are resorting to anything short of open conflict.
Le 1er novembre 2020, le référendum constitutionnel sur lequel comptait le pouvoir algérien pour avancer vers des réformes a été éclipsé par l’hospitalisation du président Tebboune. Dans ce Q&A, notre analyste principal pour l’Algérie et la Tunisie, Michael Ayari, anticipe les risques de cette situation.
تواجه الجزائر الآن المزيد من التحديات بسبب التداعيات الاجتماعية والاقتصادية لأزمة كوفيد-19 وإجراءات الحجر الصحي الرسمية التي اتخذتها البلاد. ينبغي على السلطات أن تستجيب للاحتجاجات الشعبية باتباع مقاربة أخف وطأة وأن تجلس مع مكونات "الحراك" لمناقشة الوضع الاقتصادي في البلاد.
A new wave of popular protests has jolted an already deeply unsettled Arab world. Nine years ago, uprisings across the region signalled a rejection of corrupt autocratic rule that failed to deliver jobs, basic services and reliable infrastructure. Yet regime repression and the protests’ lack of organisation, leadership and unified vision thwarted hopes of a new order. As suddenly as the uprisings erupted, as quickly they descended into violence. What followed was either brutal civil war or regime retrenchment. Tunisia stands as the sole, still fragile, exception.
لقد أنهت موجة كاسحة من الاحتجاجات الشعبية حكم وتفليقة الذي دام عشرين عاماً ووضعت الجزائر على مفترق طرق. ينبغي على النظام الشروع في إجراء إصلاحات جوهرية والدخول في حوار مع قادة الاحتجاجات من أجل منع حلقة الاحتجاجات الشعبية والإجراءات القمعية المضادة لها من الخروج عن نطاق السيطرة.
Protests against Algerian President Abdelaziz Bouteflika have seized the country since he announced his candidacy for a fifth term ahead of the April election. In this Q&A, our analyst Michaël Ayari looks at the causes of an unprecedented uprising and examines future scenarios.
لقد أعاق الشلل السياسي في الجزائر، التي تعتمد على النفط، إجراء إصلاحات اقتصادية تحتاجها البلاد بشكل كبير. لتفادي حلول حقبة جديدة من عدم الاستقرار، ينبغي على الحكومة زيادة الشفافية والمساءلة في مؤسسات الدولة والقطاع الخاص، إضافة إلى تحسين الفرص أمام الأعداد المتزايدة من الشباب في البلاد.
Refugee camps in Tindouf, Algeria, have long been run by the Polisario movement, which seeks an independent state in Western Sahara, also claimed by Morocco. But a new generation of Sahrawi refugees is growing fractious as aid dwindles and diplomatic efforts fail to deliver a settlement.
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