President Alpha Condé’s unwillingness to give up power set the stage for a military takeover on 5 September. In this Q&A, Crisis Group experts Vincent Foucher and Rinaldo Depagne show how this latest coup d’état is part of a worrying trend in West Africa.
Govt defended stalled transition, while crackdown on protests continued.
As opposition continued calling for elections, PM Bah justified transition delays. Bah 10 May responded to demands from opposition urging regime to respect timetable for restoration of civilian govt, claiming transition’s objective was not just to organise vote but to lay foundations for “institutionalisation to stabilise country and consolidate unity”; PM declared “things are progressing”. Opposition calls to progress transition, however, grew louder; coalition National Alliance for Alternation and Democracy (ANAD) 18 May urged govt to restore constitutional order before 31 Dec 2024, and said it “vigorously denounces junta’s renunciation” of its “commitments”; ANAD threatened to organise protests if timetable not respected. Meanwhile, opposition grouping National Front for the Defence of the Constitution (FNDC) 21 May announced it will oppose any extension of transition timetable, and also threatened to resume demonstrations.
Popular protests continued amid crackdown and media repression. Police 3 May arrested 126 people after demonstrations took place over ten days in late April in Lero town (Kankan region) protesting against employment practices of local gold mining company and lack of public services including water and electricity. Also, authorities 14 May arrested spokesperson for victims of Dec gas depot explosion in Conakry that killed at least 23 and 17 May gave him three months suspended sentence for defaming govt; hundreds on same day demonstrated in capital in support of spokesperson. In continued repression of media, authorities 22 May withdrew six radio and television stations licences, with govt 24 May blaming outlets’ “regular abuses”; Union of Guinean Press Professionals 27 May said they were preparing calls for a general strike.
In another important development. Small fires reported throughout month in capital Conakry including at headquarters of Culture Ministry and public energy company; official state media 7 May attributed cause of fires to “acts of sabotage”, but much remained unclear about incidents.
Guinea approaches the second free presidential election in its history under difficult circumstances. Unless the government convenes a serious dialogue with the opposition, it risks electoral violence and exacerbating ethnic divisions.
Vincent Foucher, Crisis Group’s West Africa Senior Analyst, draws attention to the complex and problematic electoral process in Guinea, now faced with the additional threat of the Ebola epidemic, causing tensions between the government and the opposition party in agreeing a date for upcoming elections.
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