After his election as Kyrgyzstan’s president in October 2017, Sooronbai Jeenbekov inherited an economically uncertain state, which has failed to address more than twenty years of misrule despite emerging from two episodes of upheaval. Central Asia’s only nominal parliamentary democracy, Kyrgyzstan is divided along ethnic and regional lines, deeply corrupt and facing religious radicalisation in absence of a strong state. Crisis Group monitors ethnic and political tensions as well as wider regional relations.
This week on War & Peace, post-Soviet security expert Dr Erica Marat joins Olga Oliker and Hugh Pope to discuss the drivers of anti-establishment protests and the policing thereof across Central Asia and globally.
Mob attack in capital prompted hundreds of foreign students to leave Kyrgyzstan, concerns about free speech continued, and incident occurred at Kyrgyz-Tajik border.
Mob attack in capital Bishkek triggered exodus of foreign students. Hundreds of Kyrgyz youths 17 May stormed hostel in Bishkek and attacked foreign students, including Pakistanis and Indians, following 12-13 May brawl in student dormitory between Kyrgyz youths and Pakistani nationals. Violence injured dozens, prompted hundreds of Pakistani students to leave Kyrgyzstan and triggered diplomatic tensions with Pakistan and India. Bishkek 22 May announced arrest of six Kyrgyz and four foreign citizens for suspected involvement in 12 May incident.
Watchdog condemned media censorship. Media watchdog Reporters Without Borders 3 May published its annual World Press Freedom Index, warning that media censorship has intensified “in a spectacular mimicry of Russian repressive method” in Kyrgyzstan, among other countries in Eastern Europe and Central Asia. Meanwhile, Alamu district court 14 May sentenced journalist and govt critic Oljobai Shakir to five years in prison for inciting “mass unrest”.
Incident occurred at border with Tajikistan. State Committee for National Security 7 May said security forces fired warning shots at Tajik shepherds, who had crossed border into Batken region to graze their livestock and reportedly thrown stones at military; Kyrgyz and Tajik border services next day issued statement saying sides had organised meeting in Batken to discuss ways to prevent further such incidents.
Four Central Asian states – Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan – have argued over their water resources since the collapse of the Soviet Union. At times these disputes have seemed to threaten war. The forthcoming presidential summit in Astana can help banish that spectre.
The inauguration of Kyrgyzstan’s new president on 24 November is a tribute to the country’s parliamentary democracy. But to overcome continued vulnerability, Sooronbai Jeenbekov must manage powerful southern elites, define the role of religion in society and spearhead reconciliation with Central Asian neighbours Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan.
While Kyrgyzstan’s 15 October elections are a rare milestone for Central Asian democracy, the campaign is exposing dangerous fault lines. In the largest city of Osh, the new president will have to face down robust local power brokers, defuse Uzbek-Kyrgyz tensions and re-introduce the rule of law.
Recent political protests in Kyrgyzstan signal the possibility of deeper trouble ahead of presidential elections in November. For the first time in the country’s pro-independence history, there is real competition for leadership in Central Asia’s only semi-functioning democracy.
Crisis Group’s Publications Officer Julie David de Lossy, formerly a freelance photographer of Central Asia, travels to Kyrgyzstan to take a look through her camera lens at the context of our conflict-prevention work.
The rapid rise of alternative interpretations of Islam, often at odds with the state’s concept of traditional identity, are being fueled in part by endemic corruption and perceptions of incompetency. The government must end economic marginalisation and improve inadequate institutions, or risk not just threats to internal security but also the resurfacing of ethnic tensions.
Kyrgyzstan’s relative stability belies the country’s brittle Central Asian neighbourhood, simmering ethnic tensions, religious extremism and political frustration. Russia, the West and China share interests here, creating a unique opportunity to work together for Kyrgyzstan’s democratic development during and after the upcoming 4 October parliamentary elections.
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