Since a July 2013 military coup, Egypt has sought to reassert state authority undermined by the 2011 uprising at the expense of political inclusion, especially of the Muslim Brotherhood. The resulting polarisation has encouraged mounting political violence from the Islamic State (ISIS) and other violent groups, particularly in the Sinai Peninsula where a low-level insurgency has raged. In the Nile Valley, in 2017, ISIS has targeted the Coptic Christian minority, while al-Qaeda affiliates and other groups tied to the Brotherhood have targeted security forces. Crisis Group is urging the government to be more inclusive and address widespread violations of human and political rights, especially ahead of presidential elections scheduled for May 2018, to better address security and economic challenges.
The Egyptian economy is under increasing strain, with the Gaza war’s effects adding to the pressure. In this excerpt from the Watch List 2024, Crisis Group identifies ways the EU can support Egypt in coping with its economic woes.
Officials continued advocating for ceasefire in Gaza while economic pressures forced govt to implement rolling blackouts and asset sales.
Govt continued calls for Gaza ceasefire, amid worries of Palestinian refugee influx. President Sisi 8 April penned joint op-ed in Washington Post newspaper with French President Emmanuel Macron and Jordanian King Abdullah II calling for immediate ceasefire in Gaza and negotiations toward two-state solution; Sisi same day met with Palestinian PM Mohamed Mustafa in capital Cairo to again reject scenario of mass displacement of Palestinians. Amid fears of influx of refugees from war, FM Shoukry 12 April called U.S. Sec State Antony Blinken to reiterate Cairo’s opposition to possible Israeli military operation in southern Gazan city of Rafah, while Al-Araby Al-Jadeed news site 18 April reported Cairo reinforced troops near Gaza border in case ground invasion leads to refugee crisis. Egypt and Turkey 20 April affirmed alignment on Gaza situation and humanitarian aid.
Govt resorted to rolling blackouts and sale of state-owned assets. Amid economic downturn, electricity ministry 14 April announced resumption of daily rolling power outages, previously suspended during holy month of Ramadan, to save $1bn annually. International media outlets 22 April reported govt plans to buy natural gas internationally to meet rising domestic demand amid declining production from existing fields. Meanwhile, Planning Minister 21 April said authorities aim to raise $1bn in 2024 and $1.5bn in 2025 through sale of state-owned assets to private investors.
In other important developments. Sisi 2 April sworn in for third consecutive term following Dec elections and promised to implement recommendations of national dialogue initiative issued Aug 2023 which included electoral reform and protection of human rights. Police 4 April arrested fourteen pro-Palestinian activists on charges of forming terrorist group and circulating fake news; detainees released 7 April amid uncertainty over status of cases.
[Egypt] cannot live with the permanent displacement of Palestinians into the Sinai Peninsula, the Gaza war’s crippling economic effects and risks of regional war.
Things have been very tense [on Gaza's border with Egypt], but there are limits to how far these tensions can go on a strategic level.
If the war goes the way it’s been going, the border between Egypt and Gaza will come under immense pressure. Reality might have a say then.
This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group’s experts Riccardo Fabiani, Michael Hanna and Dareen Khalifa about the Gaza war’s economic and political fallout for Egypt.
This week on The Horn, Alan talks with Michael Wahid Hanna, Crisis Group’s U.S. Program director, about the role of Egypt in Sudan’s war and how it might shape future relations between the two neighbouring countries and Cairo’s regional diplomacy.
Egypt faces an economic crisis that risks fuelling unrest. The International Monetary Fund demands reforms in return for loans, while the authorities seek to broaden their base through a much-criticised national dialogue. Foreign partners should cautiously support this balancing act to enhance the country’s stability.
The conflict in Egypt’s Sinai offers insights into U.S. foreign policy priorities. As part of our series The Legacy of 9/11 and the “War on Terror”, Michael Wahid Hanna argues Cairo has used the jihadist spectre to scare off critics and keep U.S. military aid flowing.
This week on The Horn, Alan and William Davison, Crisis Group's Senior Analyst for Ethiopia, discuss Ethiopia's plans to start filling the massive dam it is building, including the complex dynamics at play, negotiations, and the parties' various concerns.
With rains swelling the Blue Nile, Ethiopia is just weeks away from beginning to fill the massive dam it is building. Egypt and Sudan demand that it not do so without an agreement. All three countries urgently need to make concessions for a deal.
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