Hold Your Fire! (Season 4)

Episode 8: Iran: Gaza, “Axis of Resistance” and Nuclear Calculations

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Iran Project Director Ali Vaez to talk about Iran’s position on the war in Gaza and its advantages and drawbacks for Tehran. They look at Iran’s links with what it calls the “Axis of Resistance” – Hizbollah in Lebanon, militias in Iraq and Syria, and the Houthis in Yemen, as well as Palestinian militants including Hamas – and its strategy of using such groups to extend its influence in the region and as deterrence against attacks on Iran by its rivals. They also assess how the war has affected Iran’s nuclear ambitions, with its nuclear program ever more advanced and a potential nuclear crisis looming. They talk about Iran’s relations with Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states and the prospects that diplomacy in the region can reduce risks of a wider war, either related to Gaza or Iran’s nuclear program.  

Click here to listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. 

For more analysis on the risks of U.S.-Iran escalation, check out our Q&A Understanding the Risks of U.S.-Iran Escalation amid the Gaza Conflict, as well as our Iran and Israel/Palestine pages.

Episode 7: What Threat Does the Rebel Offensive in Myanmar Pose to the Junta?

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Myanmar expert Richard Horsey to talk about the offensive launched by the Three Brotherhood Alliance, comprising three ethnic armed groups, that has made rapid advances against Myanmar’s military in northern Shan State. They talk about the offensive and what the various ethnic armed groups hope to gain. They look at the illicit economy along the northern border areas, China’s border management approach, Beijing’s policy and its worries about online scam centres in Myanmar’s east. They also talk about the resistance forces across Myanmar that emerged when the junta cracked down on post-coup protests, relations between those forces and the ethnic armed groups, and how they view the latest surge in fighting. They discuss Myanmar’s growing humanitarian needs and massive displacement over the past few years.

Click here to listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. 

For more analysis on the recent fighting in Myanmar, check out our Q&A A New Escalation of Armed Conflict in Myanmar and our Myanmar page.

Episode 6: Will There Be A Day After For Gaza?

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard talks to Crisis Group experts Tahani Mustafa and Heiko Wimmen, as well as to Daniel Levy, president of the U.S./Middle East Project, about the surge in settler attacks in the West Bank, the escalating tensions at the Israel-Lebanon border and hopes for a ceasefire in Gaza. Richard first talks to Tahani about the spike in violence in the West Bank, including Israeli settler attacks, how the Palestinian Authority has responded and what role it might play in Gaza. He then talks with Heiko about the intensifying clashes at the Israel-Lebanon border and risks of further escalation. In a longer conversation, Richard and Daniel assess the odds of an Israel-Hamas hostage deal, the U.S.’s role in halting the fighting in Gaza, what a day after in Gaza might look like and prospects for restarting political talks between Israelis and Palestinians. 

Click here to listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. 

For more analysis on the war in Gaza, check out our Israel/Palestine page.

Episode 5: Sudan’s Collapse and the Demise of Peacemaking

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group experts Alan Boswell and Shewit Woldemichael to talk about the latest developments in Sudan’s civil war, where fighting between the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) has been raging for almost seven months. They talk about the recent advances by the RSF in Darfur, where the Sudanese army has been largely routed, and what the recent gains mean for the war’s trajectory. They talk about the RSF’s motives in fighting and what its leader Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, or Hemedti, hopes to gain from the war. They discuss the army’s weakness and increasing reliance on Islamist forces formerly associated with long-serving ruler Omar al-Bashir. They also examine the dearth of serious diplomacy aimed at ending the war. 

Click here to listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. 

For more analysis on the war in Sudan, check out our Sudan page.

Episode 4: What Hope for a Ceasefire in Gaza

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group experts Mairav Zonszein, Robert Blecher and Azmi Keshawi to discuss Israel’s assault on Gaza, the mood in Israel nearly a month after Hamas’s 7 October attacks and whether Israeli concerns about Hamas can be addressed without such devastation and civilian harm in Gaza. Richard first talks to Mairav and Robert about Israel’s operations thus far, whether its goals in Gaza are evolving and the nature of U.S. support. They discuss prospects for a ceasefire or at least a pause in fighting, perhaps in exchange for Hamas releasing ome hostages, and whether that could buy some space for diplomacy. Richard then talks to Azmi about life in Gaza under Israeli bombardment and short of basic necessities. 

Click here to listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. 

For more analysis on the war in Gaza, check out our Israel/Palestine page.

Episode 3: Gaza, Ukraine and An Inflection Point in World Politics?

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Europe & Central Asia Director Olga Oliker and U.S. Director Michael Hanna to discuss the war in Gaza, its implications for Ukraine and U.S. President Joe Biden’s efforts to navigate the crisis in the Middle East while supporting Ukraine’s defence against Russia. They first look at Ukraine’s fears that a prolonged conflict in the Middle East could divert Western resources away from its fight against Russia’s invasion. They talk about U.S. attempts to get aid to both Israel and Ukraine despite a divided Congress. They look at how Russia views what is happening in the Middle East, whether a wider regional war may be in Moscow’s interest and how much sway it has in the region. They also talk about the impact of the Gaza war on the regional diplomacy underway before Hamas’s attacks, notably between Saudi Arabia and Iran, and efforts by the U.S. to encourage Saudi Arabia to normalise relations with Israel. 

Click here to listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. 

For more analysis of the conflict in Israel-Palestine, you can check out our latest statement A Ceasefire in Gaza and our Israel/Palestine page.

Episode 2: War in Gaza: To What End and At What Cost?

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group experts Mairav Zonszein, Robert Blecher, Tahani Mustafa and Heiko Wimmen to discuss what has happened over the past week in Gaza and where the war might be headed. Richard first talks to Mairav and Robert about Biden’s visit to Israel this week, Israel’s looming ground invasion of Gaza and whether the devastating blast at the al-Ahli Arab Hospital in Gaza, for which responsibility remains unclear, might change calculations in Israel or Washington. He then talks with Tahani about escalating violence in the West Bank and risks of further worsening bloodshed. He and Heiko discuss the continuing exchange of fire between the Israeli army and Lebanese militant group Hizbollah at the Israel-Lebanon border and what might trigger a further escalation there and further afield. 

Click here to listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. 

For more analysis of the conflict in Israel-Palestine, you can check out our latest statement A Ceasefire in Gaza and our Israel/Palestine page.

Episode 1: No Going Back? Hamas’s Atrocities and Another Catastrophe in Gaza

For the first episode of a new season of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group experts Joost Hiltermann, Mairav Zonszein and Azmi Keshawi to discuss Hamas’s shock attack on Israel over the weekend and its potential consequences. The attack saw Palestinian gunmen rampage through southern Israel killing some 1,200 Israelis, many of whom were civilians, including women, children, the elderly and entire families. In response, Israel has bombed and blockaded Gaza, and is gearing up for a ground offensive. Richard first talks to Azmi in Gaza about life for Gazans under the Israeli bombardment and their views of Hamas. He then talks with Mairav about Israelis’ shock at the horrific attacks, the intelligence failures that Hamas exploited and the mood among Israelis. He and Joost discuss what Hamas hoped to gain, outside actors’ involvement, how the war affects Arab politics and Israeli-Saudi normalisation talks, and the dangers of escalation, particularly involving the Lebanese militant group Hizbollah. At the end of the episode, Richard speaks to Azmi again after his displacement from Gaza City.

Click here to listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. 

For more analysis of the conflict in Israel-Palestine, you can check out our latest commentary A Second October War in Israel-Palestine and our Israel/Palestine page.