As peace talks between Armenia and Azerbaijan continue, Baku has opened a checkpoint on the Lachin corridor, the sole road connecting Armenia to the Nagorno-Karabakh enclave, raising fears of a new surge in fighting. In this Q&A, Crisis Group experts discuss the risks.
Peace talks with Azerbaijan continued, protests against border delimitation deal spread to capital, and relations with Russia remained strained.
Armenia-Azerbaijan peace process saw more positive momentum. Armenia-Azerbaijan peace process gained momentum following border agreement in April, in which Yerevan agreed to return four villages to Baku, with leaders from both sides expressing optimism about signing peace deal by Nov climate conference (COP29) in Azerbaijan. Notably, PM Pashinyan 14 May said “the time has come” to sign deal; earlier, Azerbaijani President Aliyev 23 April said “it is absolutely realistic to reach an agreement… before COP29”. Country’s FMs 10-11 May held talks in Kazakh city Almaty. Countries’ border delimitation commissions 15 May held their ninth meeting, signed protocol confirming demarcation of section of their northernmost border as per April agreement; Baku 24 May assumed control of four villages, with troops from both sides responsible for protecting their respective sections of newly demarcated border segment.
Protests against border deal led by Archbishop Galstanyan continued. Protests that erupted in Tavush region in response to border deal continued. Archbishop Galstanyan of Tavush Diocese emerged as prominent leader of movement, 4 May instigating march from Tavush to capital Yerevan. Church backed demonstrations, with Supreme Spiritual Council 7 May urging govt to heed protesters’ demands. Upon reaching Yerevan, tens of thousands 9 May converged at Republic Square, where Galstanyan called for govt’s resignation; protests continued in following days, leading to hundreds of arrests amid confrontations with police. Following brief lull, thousands 26 May attended demonstration in Yerevan where Galstanyan reiterated his intention to challenge Pashinyan and declared readiness to lead new interim government. Parliament speaker Alen Simonian 21 May condemned Church for meddling in politics, suggesting govt may take steps to limit its involvement.
Relations with Russia cooled further. Pashinyan and Russian President Putin 8 May agreed on withdrawal of Russian border guards from several regions in Armenia and Zvartnots International Airport; Foreign Ministry 7 May announced Armenia will cease financial contributions to Russia-led military alliance, Collective Security Treaty Organization; and Kremlin 24 May recalled its ambassador to Armenia for consultations, but gave no reason for move.
Armenia is having problems integrating over 100,000 refugees who fled Nagorno-Karabakh when Azerbaijan took control of the enclave in September 2023. Yerevan has tried to be generous, but it lacks funds and a long-term plan, leaving the displaced people exposed and facing an uncertain future.
This week on War & Peace, Olga Oliker and Elissa Jobson speak with Olesya Vartanyan and Zaur Shiriyev, Crisis Group’s South Caucasus experts, about where things stand between Armenia and Azerbaijan, the deadly border clashes in September and whether a peace agreement might be within reach.
A fragile truce concluded on 14 September halted fighting between Azerbaijan and Armenia that left hundreds of soldiers dead. In this Q&A, Crisis Group explains what occurred and what needs to happen now to restart the peace process between the two foes.
This week on Hold Your Fire! Richard Atwood talks to Crisis Group’s UN Director Richard Gowan about the state of the UN as world leaders meet for General Assembly week, and also catches up with Europe and Central Asia Program Director Olga Oliker about the latest from Ukraine and violence on the Armenia-Azerbaijan border.
Six months of contacts between Türkiye and Armenia have brought an agreement to move toward opening their shared border and launching direct trade. But Ankara and Yerevan are far apart on many issues. The road ahead will be long.
Turkish and Armenian special envoys will meet in Moscow on 14 January to discuss normalising relations between these long-estranged neighbours. Crisis Group experts Olesya Vartanyan, Nigar Göksel and Zaur Shiriyev unpack how the end of the Nagorno-Karabakh war in 2020 opened the way for talks.
This week on War & Peace, Olga Oliker and Hugh Pope talk to Crisis Group’s South Caucasus expert Olesya Vartanyan about the conflict in and over Nagorno-Karabakh, a year on from a Russian-brokered ceasefire that put an end to renewed large-scale fighting between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
The 2020 war over Nagorno-Karabakh left many issues unresolved and the front lines volatile. The parties should establish a formal communication channel to address urgent post-war problems, Russian peacekeepers need a clearer mandate and aid agencies must be granted access to the conflict zone.
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