Since the 2022 Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Georgian authorities, who have maintained ties with Moscow, have faced the country’s biggest street protests in a decade and deteriorating relations with Western partners. Georgia officially still seeks to join the EU but has a poor record on the domestic reforms required. Meanwhile, although the situation is overall comparatively stable, occasional incidents continue in and along the lines of separation with Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Many of these incidents involve Russian troops, which maintain a presence in these two breakaway regions that Moscow recognised as independent in the wake of its war against Georgia in 2008. Crisis Group closely monitors developments in the Georgian conflict zones and provides recommendations for sustaining diplomacy, keeping the existing negotiation format functioning, shaping long-term policies to support reconciliation and increasing stability.
This video gathers testimonies from people living along the South Ossetia-Georgia line of separation, where Russian militarisation of the boundary has left communities divided.
Georgia descended further into crisis over ‘foreign influence’ legislation as protests expanded and opponents faced violence and intimidation; foreign partners condemned law.
Legislature approved ‘foreign influence’ bill. Parliament 14 May approved controversial law on ‘Transparency of Foreign Influence’, which requires NGOs and media outlets that receive over one fifth of their funding from abroad to register as organisations representing foreign interests. President Zourabichvili 18 May vetoed law, which parliament 28 May voted to override, paving way for speaker to sign bill into law.
Unrest in streets deepened as activists faced violence. Mass protests, led primarily by young people, continued in capital Tbilisi and spread to other cities amid fears legislation will lead to crackdown on media freedom and civil liberties – vital issues ahead of Oct parliamentary election. Police responded harshly to demonstrators, while activists, opposition politicians and journalists faced beatings and intimidation from unidentified assailants, including physical assaults and threatening phone calls; activists claimed authorities orchestrated actions.
Efforts to reverse legislation extended beyond streets. On domestic front, President Zourabichvili 26 May proposed roadmap out of crisis, dubbed “Georgian Charter”, inviting fractious opposition parties to unite under one bloc to take on Georgian Dream in Oct elections; if successful at polls, provisional govt made up of opposition representatives would be established, tasked with enacting pro-EU reforms and scheduling early elections in 2025. Group of NGOs 30 May announced intention to contest legislation at Constitutional Court. On international front, U.S. Sec-State Antony Blinken 23 May announced visa restrictions on number of govt officials, while EU High Representative Josep Borrell 28 May warned law “will negatively impact Georgia’s EU path”.
Kobakhidze met Turkish leader in Ankara. PM Kobakhidze 16 May met with Türkiye’s President Erdoğan in Turkish capital Ankara, during which pair signed Memorandum of Understanding on energy cooperation.
This week on War & Peace, Olga Oliker and Elissa Jobson talk with Tbilisi-based journalist Joshua Kucera and Crisis Group’s Senior Analyst for the South Caucasus Olesya Vartanyan about the March protests in Georgia and what they might spell for the political future of the country.
Russia’s war on Ukraine has all but stopped Moscow’s efforts to fence off the line that separates breakaway South Ossetia from Georgia proper. Conflict parties should use this lull to ease the suffering this decade-long process has inflicted on people living on both sides.
Georgia, a former Soviet republic that suffered its own Russian invasion in 2008 and Moscow’s destabilising support for its breakaway regions, is treading carefully on the war in Ukraine, fearing that if it upsets the Kremlin, it may be left to face the consequences alone.
As elections draw near, increased tension at the line of separation with South Ossetia has helped put the future of normalisation with Russia in doubt. But whoever wins at the polls should not abandon dialogue, but rather build on it to frankly discuss these problems.
In this testimony before the U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Foreign Affairs, Crisis Group expert Olesya Vartanyan analyses the conflict dynamics in Abkhazia and South Ossetia, the breakaway territories from Georgia recognised as independent by Russia, and explains how Washington can promote stability there.
This summer’s protests in Georgia led to changes to the country’s electoral system. But the country’s new Prime Minister, Giorgi Gakharia, is a man protesters wanted ousted from the last government, in which he led the Interior Ministry. In this interview with World Politics Review, Europe & Central Asia Program Director Olga Oliker and Analyst for EU Eastern Neighbourhood Olesya Vartanyan consider what Gakharia’s tenure will bring, and how the parliamentary elections next year might play out in this atmosphere.
Informal trade is increasing between Georgia and the breakaway territories of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, and between Abkhazia and countries outside the region. Trade alone cannot transform the parties’ core political differences. But talks among them on mutually beneficial commerce could open lines of communication long cemented shut.
Renewed fighting in eastern Ukraine is quickly turning into a litmus test of Russia’s intentions in backing Ukrainian separatist rebels, and the real willingness of the West, in particular the United States, to support Kyiv. Fears over Washington’s wavering may also cause positions to harden in the protracted conflicts in Europe’s East, most immediately in Georgia.
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