Renversé le 5 septembre, le président Condé, par son entêtement à conserver le pouvoir, avait préparé le terrain à la prise de contrôle militaire. Dans ce Q&A, les experts de Crisis Group, Vincent Foucher et Rinaldo Depagne, alertent sur une tendance inquiétante en Afrique de l’Ouest qu’illustre ce nouveau coup d’Etat.
Junta announced formation of new govt amid questions over regime stability and future of transition.
New administration composed of technocratic and junta-friendly ministers. Junta 13 March announced 29-member cabinet following Feb dissolution of govt amid internal power struggles. Junta-allied Defence, Security and Foreign Ministers among fourteen who kept posts from previous administration; both former PM Goumou and former Justice Minister Charles Wright, whose tensions with one another may have contributed to Feb dissolvement of govt, lost posts. Meanwhile, PM Bah 25 March said elections “cannot effectively be held” in 2024; civil society remained concerned transitional govt would continue past proposed Dec 2024 end date due to lengthy process of finalising Constitution and organising elections; first draft of new Constitution, promised for March, yet to be circulated.
Popular pushback continued against lack of services and repression. Electricity blackouts led to demonstrations and unrest, with police allegedly killing two youths during protests related to power cuts in Kindia city 12 March and another in capital Conakry 14 March; in response to lack of supply, President Doumbouya 16 March sacked several senior electricity officials. Meanwhile, in apparent attempt to pursue conciliatory tone, Bah 6 March met with journalists and subsequently said he would consult with Doumbouya about lifting media constraints, with govt having removed internet restrictions in Feb.
La Guinée approche de sa deuxième élection présidentielle libre dans des conditions difficiles. A moins que le gouvernement ne se résolve à un dialogue sérieux avec l’opposition, il prend le risque de violences électorales ainsi que d’une aggravation des tensions ethniques.
Vincent Foucher, analyste principal pour l'Afrique de l'ouest, analyse la fragilité du processus électoral en Guinée ces dernières années, marqué par le manque d'un dispositif institutionnel fiable, l'échec du dialogue entre le government et l'opposition et la forte dimension ethnique du vote.
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