In December 2023, President Félix Tshisekedi won a second term, while his Union Sacrée coalition swept up the most seats in parliament. With all candidates allowed to stand, the presidential election avoided some of the controversies of 2018. But despite Tshisekedi’s wide margin of victory, the polls were marked by chaos and reports of rigging. The political landscape remains deeply divided, and in the east, both Ituri and North Kivu provinces are rocked by instability. In the former, the Allied Democratic Forces continues its murderous campaign against civilians, attacking targets in Uganda, too, despite a Ugandan military campaign in Ituri since late 2021. In North Kivu, the 23 March Movement, widely seen as backed by Rwanda, continues to fight the Congolese army, which is backed by informal auxiliaries as well as allies from the Southern African Development Community. Hundreds of thousands of civilians have fled their homes as fighting spreads. Crisis Group aims to provide detailed recommendations on how to calm national tensions and de-escalate the situation in the east.
This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Richard Moncrieff, Crisis Group’s Great Lakes director, to discuss M23 rebels’ advances in eastern DR Congo, Rwanda’s involvement and whether diplomacy and a southern African force can curb violence.
Ongoing clashes spread northward in North Kivu as ruling party head accused former President Kabila of supporting insurgents; Angola continued DRC-Rwanda diplomatic efforts.
Clashes between govt-allied forces and M23 rebels in North Kivu continued. As front froze west of provincial capital Goma despite sporadic mortar exchanges, M23 6 March expanded assault northward; rebels posed increasing threat to Lubero town and seized control of several others including Nyanzale 6 March, despite resistance from pro-govt Wazalendo militia groups. Fighting triggered further displacement with UN official 13 March saying violence had displaced 250,000 in one month. Strategic town Sake (25km north west of Goma) remained under Wazalendo and army control, although largely deserted; military blamed Rwandan troops for 16 March mortar shell that wounded eight UN peacekeepers in Sake town. Meanwhile, after 28 March meeting in Rutshuru in which several people linked to political movement of former President Kabila appeared alongside Corneille Nangaa, head of pro-M23 politico-military group Congo River Alliance, ruling party chief Augustin Kabaya accused Kabila of supporting insurgents, claiming former president had fled country.
Angola attempted to induce DRC-Rwanda de-escalation of crisis. Angolan President Joao Lourenço 11 March hosted Rwandan President Paul Kagame in Angola’s capital Luanda to discuss crisis, mirroring Congolese counterpart President Tshisekedi’s Feb trip to Angola; later, FMs from all three countries 21 March convened in Luanda, reportedly attempting to organise future summit between Kagame and Tshisekedi.
Other armed groups continued to take heavy toll on civilians in Ituri and North Kivu. In Ituri, clashes between CODECO militia, which claims to defend interests of Lendu ethnic group, and ZAIRE militia from rival Hema people 5 March claimed seven lives in Djugu territory. In North Kivu, according to military authorities Islamic State-affiliated Allied Democratic Forces militants 23-24 March killed at least thirteen civilians in twin attacks on Sayo district of Beni city, setting houses ablaze.
In other important developments. Constitutional Court 12 March passed verdicts on electoral disputes from Dec parliamentary election, invalidating over 40 results, and predominantly benefiting pro-Tshisekedi ruling coalition. Govt 13 March announced resumption of executions citing need to combat perceived treachery and treason amid M23 conflict, spurring international condemnation.
If the regional escalation [in the DRC] continues, we could find ourselves in a scenario like during the other Congo wars … More bombing means more displacement.
The credibility of the elections [in the DRC] has been severely damaged and the opposition may contest not only the outcome but the entire process.
The Congolese state is still riven with corruption and [president Felix Tshisekedi] hasn’t done anything visible or immediately obvious to tackle it.
If we can't negotiate a humanitarian corridor for the city [of Goma in eastern DR Congo], it will be a catastrophe.
Armed groups [in the Central African Republic] have been disbanded, but [they] still extort and harass the local population.
L’est de la République démocratique du Congo est devenu un champ de bataille impliquant plusieurs armées régionales et de nombreux groupes armés. Onesphore Sematumba, expert de Crisis Group sur la région des Grands Lacs, explique dans cet entretien les tenants et les aboutissants de ce conflit meurtrier.
Après avoir remporté un second mandat lors des élections chaotiques de décembre, le président congolais Félix Tshisekedi devra réunifier le pays et s’attaquer à la violence qui fait rage dans l’est. La tâche est ardue, mais une approche plus conciliante envers les leaders de l’opposition et les partenaires diplomatiques pourrait aider.
Dans cet épisode d’Afrique 360°, Enrica Picco reçoit Fred Bauma, directeur exécutif de l’institut de recherche Ebuteli, et Onesphore Sematumba, analyste pour la RDC et le Burundi à Crisis Group, pour parler des nombreux défis liés aux élections imminentes en République Démocratique du Congo et aux risques d’un nouvel échec démocratique.
Les risques qui pèsent sur le prochain cycle électoral en République démocratique du Congo sont nombreux. Pour les éviter, le gouvernement devrait veiller à ce que tous les partis puissent faire campagne et les puissances africaines et occidentales devraient inciter les parties à trouver des compromis et se préparer à jouer un éventuel rôle de médiation.
Le 30 août, des troupes d’élite ont massacré plus de 50 civils qui se préparaient à protester contre ce qu’ils percevaient comme de l’ingérence étrangère dans l’est de la République démocratique du Congo, trois mois avant les élections. Le gouvernement a demandé à l’ONU un retrait « accéléré ». Les experts de Crisis Group, Richard Moncrieff et Onesphore Sematumba, expliquent les enjeux.
This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood speaks with Richard Moncrieff, Crisis Group’s interim Great Lakes project director, about an incident in which Rwanda's army shot at a Congolese fighter jet, raising fears that tensions between Kinshasa and Kigali could boil over.
Les tensions déjà très vives entre Kigali et Kinshasa ont été exacerbées par le tir des forces de défense rwandaises sur un avion de guerre congolais qu’elles accusent d’avoir violé l’espace aérien rwandais. Dans ce Q&A, Crisis Group examine pourquoi la situation s’est détériorée et esquisse des pistes pour une désescalade.
This week on The Horn, Alan Boswell is joined by Crisis Group consultant Richard Moncrieff to discuss recent developments in the conflict in the eastern DR Congo, tensions between Kinshasa and Kigali as well as regional and international efforts to address the crisis.
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