President Evariste Ndayishimiye enjoys good relations with the Democratic Republic of Congo next door. But following accusations that Rwanda is harbouring anti-Burundi insurgents and coup plotters, relations with that neighbour deteriorated severely over the course of 2023. At home, oppressive policies aimed at obstructing opposition continue while the ruling party’s supporters, especially its Imbonerakure youth wing, enjoy near impunity for their abuses. Crisis Group keeps an eye on Burundi’s role in the region’s fraught diplomacy and monitors its internal situation through the monthly conflict tracker CrisisWatch.
Les combats s'intensifient dans l'est de la République démocratique du Congo, où des forces ougandaises et burundaises pourchassent des rebelles pendant qu’une insurrection congolaise renaît. Kinshasa, soutenue par ses alliés, devrait redoubler d’efforts diplomatiques pour éviter que le pays ne devienne à nouveau un champ de bataille régional.
Main opposition party faced disarray amid contention over leadership and govt-instigated fragmentation; reports emerged of ruling party youth wing receiving further military training.
Govt-sponsored efforts ousted leader of main opposition party. Opposition fell into disarray as faction of National Congress for Freedom (CNL) removed party head Agathon Rwasa, with govt recognising parallel leadership. Interior Minister Martin Niteretse denied Rwasa permission for 2 March extraordinary congress, instead allowing ten govt-backed CNL dissidents to convene one in Ngozi province 10 March while Rwasa was not in country. Delegates chose Nestor Girukwishaka, senior executive allegedly close to ruling party, as new CNL head, while Niteretse 18 March officially recognised him as party’s President. Police, intelligence services and ruling-party youth wing Imbonerakure barred pro-Rwasa MPs from attending meeting, with human rights group Ligue Iteka reporting 42 CNL members arrested during day. CNL described congress as “masquerade” while Rwasa said govt had worked with “political mercenaries” from party as ploy to sideline him ahead of 2025 legislative elections; govt interference left CNL adrift with two separate leaderships under Girukwishaka and Rwasa.
Imbonerakure continued to bolster force with alleged paramilitary training. Locals 6 March reported Imbonerakure members, predominantly from western provinces, undertook military-style training in Cibitoke province, with reports of gunshots and armed parades. Defence ministry said exercises were military training for soldiers but local sources suggested events were paramilitary drills for ruling party youth wing.
In another important development. Police 17 March discovered decapitated body in Bukinanyana commune in Cibitoke province and arrested four Imbonerakure members as suspects.
This week on Hold Your Fire! Richard Atwood talks to Great Lakes expert Nelleke van de Walle about the escalation of violence in the eastern DR Congo, as Uganda and Burundi deploy troops to fight rebels in the area and Rwanda threatens to do the same.
Every year Crisis Group publishes two additional Watch List updates that complement its annual Watch List for the EU, most recently published in January 2021. These publications identify major crises and conflict situations where the European Union and its member states can generate stronger prospects for peace. The Autumn Update of the Watch List 2021 includes entries on Afghanistan, Burundi, Iran, Nagorno-Karabakh and Nicaragua.
Les réformes promises par le Président burundais Evariste Ndayishimiye ont apaisé les relations avec l’UE. Dans cet extrait de notre Watch List 2021 – Edition d’automne, Crisis Group exhorte l’UE et ses Etats membres à énoncer des critères précis en matière de respect des droits humains au Burundi et à veiller au respect des accords conclus entre l’UE et le Burundi.
Au cours de sa première année au poste de président du Burundi, Evariste Ndayishimiye a affiché une volonté de réforme et de reprise du dialogue avec les partenaires internationaux. Dans ce Q&A, les experts de Crisis Group cherchent à déterminer si les tenants de la ligne dure du parti au pouvoir empêcheront le pays de prendre un tournant décisif.
Le 20 mai, dans le contexte de l’épidémie de Covid-19, les Burundais éliront un nouveau président ainsi que leurs futurs députés et conseillers municipaux. Dans ce Q&A, Crisis Group analyse les différents scénarios pour ces élections et les difficultés auxquelles le nouveau président sera confronté.
Au Burundi, le parti au pouvoir déclare avoir mis un terme aux contributions initialement imposées en vue de financer les élections prévues au mois de mai. Néanmoins, ces pratiques confiscatoires se poursuivent. La suppression définitive de ces contributions serait un premier pas vers des réformes de gouvernance plus globales dans le pays.
President Tshisekedi’s plans for joint operations with DR Congo’s belligerent eastern neighbours against its rebels risks regional proxy warfare. In this excerpt from our Watch List 2020 for European policymakers, Crisis Group urges the EU to encourage diplomatic efforts in the region and Tshisekedi to shelve his plan for the joint operations.
Trois Etats de la région des Grands Lacs – Burundi, Rwanda et Ouganda – s’accusent mutuellement de subversion, chacun reprochant à l’autre de soutenir des rebelles en République démocratique du Congo, leur voisin commun. Les puissances extérieures devraient aider le président congolais à dénouer ces tensions pour éviter une mêlée meurtrière.
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