A decade of diplomacy, sanctions and nuclear brinkmanship involving Iran and the UN Security Council’s five permanent members (plus Germany) led to the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). This accord enshrined a core compromise that Crisis Group had advocated since 2003: acceptance of a limited, tightly monitored uranium enrichment program in Iran in return for that country’s reintegration into the global economy. Despite the JCPOA’s successful first years, the U.S. withdrew from the deal in 2018, putting it at risk of collapse while raising the danger of conflict between Tehran, Washington and their respective allies. Through field research and high-level advocacy, Crisis Group focuses on salvaging the JCPOA and preventing regional tensions from boiling over.
Read this month’s CrisisWatch Conflict in Focus entry on Iran here.
A helicopter crash on 19 May killed Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, who many had thought was the likely successor to the Islamic Republic’s Supreme Leader. In this Q&A, Crisis Group experts Ali Vaez and Naysan Rafati look at the implications of Raisi’s sudden demise.
Years-long shadow war between Iran and Israel escalated into overt and direct hostilities, with Tehran launching unprecedented retaliatory attack on Israeli territory with massive barrage of drones and missiles.
Israeli strike on Iran’s Syrian consulate triggered unprecedented confrontation. Airstrike on Iranian consular facility in Syrian capital Damascus, widely attributed to Israel, 1 April killed two senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commanders and five officers, marking most significant in string of Israeli operations against Iranian military personnel since late 2023. After Iran’s leadership loudly vowed revenge, IRGC 13 April seized MSC Aries, container ship linked to Israeli ownership, in Gulf of Oman. In first ever direct attack, Iran later same day unleased massive barrage of 300 drones, cruise missiles and ballistic missiles at Israel, which according to Israeli and U.S. officials were intercepted with near-total success with exception of minor damage at Israeli airbase and reported wounded civilian. Tehran signalled action was limited and concluded, warning any Israeli response would be met by more substantial counter-response; hinting of weaponising nuclear program, senior IRGC official 18 April warned that “reconsidering nuclear doctrine and policies of [Iran] is probable and imaginable” were Israel to target nuclear facilities. Israel 18-19 April conducted drone/missile attack in Isfahan city, impact of which Tehran largely dismissed. Both sides late April refrained from further hostilities, but risk of direct confrontation remains as pair seek to establish new red lines (see Conflict in Focus). Meanwhile, U.S. 25 April sanctioned more than two dozen additional persons and entities linked to development or transfer of Iranian UAVs.
Separatist militants in south east launched deadly attacks. In Sistan and Baluchestan province (south east), separatist Baluch militant group Jaish al-Adl 3 April launched coordinated assault on military and police targets in Rask and Chabahar cities, which IRGC next day said killed ten security forces personnel and eighteen militants. Jaish al-Adl ambush 9 April reportedly killed six policemen.
Authorities renewed imposition of cultural conservative mandates. Govt 13 April launched renewed campaign to enforce mandatory hijab wearing on women, which could reignite social and political discontent that led to widespread anti-regime protests following death of Mahsa Amini in 2022.
The Islamic Republic has really focused on ideological conformity at the top rather than legitimacy from below.
Iran is more aggressive in the region, more repressive at home, and closer to the verge of nuclear weapons than ever before.
Iran’s government appears to have concluded that the Damascus strike [by Israel] was a strategic inflection point, where failure to retaliate would carry more downsides t...
I don't think Iran wants to sacrifice Hezbollah or bring it into the fray [with Israel]. It is the top of its spear, and Iran wants to preserve it.
This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group’s experts Ali Vaez, Mairav Zonszein and Stephen Pomper about the Iranian president’s sudden death and the International Criminal Court prosecutor’s arrest warrants requests for Israeli and Hamas leaders.
Tehran has concluded that a regional reordering is underway. The death of the president and foreign minister won’t change that.
While continuity in foreign policy is likely, tension between state and societycould be further exacerbated by competition within the conservative camp.
This week on Hold Your Fire! Richard is joined by Crisis Group experts Ali Vaez, Mairav Zonszein, Michael Hanna, Lahib Higel and Robert Blecher to talk about the exchange of strikes between Iran and Israel and the implications for Gaza.
Israel and its allies fended off almost all the armed drones and missiles fired by Iran on 13 April. This outcome affords both sides a face-saving way out of what could otherwise be a ruinous broader confrontation.
Iran and Israel May Not Be Finished.
An isolated leader who faced widespread criticism a week ago now has the backing of the West and has deflected global attention from Gaza.
Iran and Israel are trading threats and counter-threats following the 1 April strike, attributed to Israel, on the Iranian consulate in Damascus. It is imperative that both sides avoid further escalation – or an all-out Middle East conflagration could result.
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