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This week on Hold Your Fire! Richard is joined by Crisis Group experts Ali Vaez, Mairav Zonszein, Michael Hanna, Lahib Higel and Robert Blecher to talk about the exchange of strikes between Iran and Israel and the implications for Gaza. 

Israel and its allies fended off almost all the armed drones and missiles fired by Iran on 13 April. This outcome affords both sides a face-saving way out of what could otherwise be a ruinous broader confrontation. 

Iran and Israel May Not Be Finished.

An isolated leader who faced widespread criticism a week ago now has the backing of the West and has deflected global attention from Gaza.

Iran and Israel are trading threats and counter-threats following the 1 April strike, attributed to Israel, on the Iranian consulate in Damascus. It is imperative that both sides avoid further escalation – or an all-out Middle East conflagration could result.

Turnout in Iran’s national polls was historically low, marking the third vote in a row in which most people stayed away. In parallel, conservatives tightened their hold on the Islamic Republic’s institutions. The two trends together highlight the growing gap between state and society. 

The Conflict Has Empowered Tehran—but Also Fueled Its Sense of Vulnerability

This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Iran Project Director Ali Vaez, to discuss how Iran sees the Gaza war, the danger of a region-wide confrontation and Tehran’s nuclear calculations.

Terrible as the Gaza war’s toll has already been, it would get worse if sustained fighting were to erupt between the U.S. and Iran or its Middle East allies. Crisis Group experts Brian Finucane, Lahib Higel, Naysan Rafati and Ali Vaez lay out the dangers.

Washington and Tehran have reached an accord bringing U.S. hostages home from Iran and unfreezing Iranian assets. The agreement has much to recommend it, despite what critics say.