In April 2023, war broke out in the capital Khartoum between the Sudanese army led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces headed by Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo “Hemedti”. Fighting quickly spread to other parts of Sudan, particularly Darfur to the west and Kordofan to the south. Instability in Sudan, a strategic country that connects the Sahel, North Africa, the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea, will have ramifications well beyond its borders. The war has already sucked in outside actors. Meanwhile, long-running rebellions in several of the country’s peripheral regions persist. Through research and advocacy, Crisis Group aims to contribute to mitigating and resolving the conflicts in Sudan.
In this episode of The Horn, Alan Boswell talks with Tom Perriello, U.S. Special Envoy for Sudan, about obstacles to peace in Sudan and U.S. efforts to mediate an end to the conflict after a year of fighting.
Fears of all-out intercommunal conflict in North Darfur escalated as paramilitary forces (RSF) and Darfuri armed groups prepared for war and Sudanese army (SAF) intensified bombings of Arab areas.
RSF and Darfuri armed groups prepared for war, raising fears of ethnic conflict. Tensions in North Darfur escalated after three members of a coalition of non-Arab armed groups, Joint Force of Armed Struggle Movements, 12 April aligned with SAF against RSF. RSF-aligned Arab militias, meanwhile, torched villages around North Darfur’s state capital El Fasher in response to growing role of non-Arab populations in conflict, notably Sudanese Zaghawa of North Darfur, heightening fears of all-out ethnic warfare. U.S. 24 April warned of imminent RSF offensive on El Fasher, which hosts hundreds of thousands of displaced people; UN 26 April said RSF were reportedly encircling city and that attack “would have devastating consequences” for civilians. Meanwhile, SAF carried out airstrikes on RSF positions, reportedly killing scores.
SAF-RSF fighting persisted in Bahri, Gezira and South Kordofan. Fighting continued in Omdurman and Bahri cities, with SAF making modest gains. SAF offensive to retake Wad Madani state capital in Gezira made no significant progress. In South Kordofan state, RSF-affiliated militias 5-6 April reportedly attacked villages in Qurdud Nyama region, killing scores.
International conference pushed for aid and greater mediation coordination. In international humanitarian summit for Sudan and neighbouring countries held in French capital Paris, various states 15 April pledged $2.1bn aid and reaffirmed commitment to peace initiatives; regional and international actors also convened ministerial meeting, calling for unhindered humanitarian access, cessation of hostilities and support for consolidated mediation and peace process. Saudi and U.S. committed to restart Jeddah process within three weeks. U.S. 29 April called for all countries to halt weapons’ exports to Sudan, warning El Fasher is “on the precipice of a large-scale massacre”.
Civilian actors held meetings to discuss future political process. On Paris conference sidelines, EU brought together Sudanese civilian political actors to discuss ending conflict and prospects for political future. Promediation organisation, supported by Swiss govt, 20 April hosted meeting of Sudanese political actors to discuss ceasefire negotiations and political process; talks excluded representatives from former President Bashir’s National Congress Party.
A big part of the problem has been the Sudanese army side of the war essentially blocking food relief into areas they don't control.
Regaining an ally in Sudan, especially along the Red Sea, would be a major win for Iran but will spook other regional and Western powers.
The [Sudanese] army has never had to fight a war like this before and has shown itself not fit for purpose.
There hasn't been a major ceasefire push since the first few weeks of the war in Sudan … It's been a giant mess.
The east [of Sudan] is a powder keg. We just haven’t seen it blow up yet.
The concern now is if these Jeddah talks collapse, it confirms more or less that Sudan is basically in freefall into a full civil war.
On 15 April, Sudan will mark a year since a power struggle between two branches of its armed forces exploded into full-scale conflict. In this video, Crisis Group's President and CEO Comfort Ero reflects on the effects of these twelve months of hostilities.
This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group experts Shewit Woldemichael and Alan Boswell to discuss the latest from Sudan after nearly a year of war.
All-out fighting between rival branches of the armed forces has devastated Sudan. With millions facing famine, diplomats should push the two main belligerents much harder to accept a ceasefire – before the fragmentation in the two sides’ ranks dooms efforts to stop the carnage.
This week on The Horn, Alan speaks with Alsanosi Adam, an active member of Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms, about the humanitarian catastrophe unfolding in Sudan as famine looms and the challenges grassroots networks face in getting vital aid to civilians across the country.
Zeinab Badawi speaks about the failure of international diplomacy to respond effectively to the war in Sudan.
Sudan’s war is entering an even more dangerous phase as fighting spreads to the heavily contested east, spelling more atrocities and mass displacement. Diplomats should seize a new opportunity to halt the spiral into state failure and stimulate direct talks between the belligerents.
This week on The Horn, we are bringing you a panel discussion on Sudan hosted by Crisis Group’s President and CEO Comfort Ero at the 2023 Doha Forum with Ambassador Mike Hammer, Ambassador Hanna Tetteh, Kholood Khair and Crisis Group’s Africa director Murithi Mutiga.
This week on The Horn, Alan hosts a roundtable discussion with Kholood Khair, Abdul Mohammed, and Alexander Rondos to discuss the multiple crises engulfing the Horn of Africa and why diplomacy has been on the back foot.
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