Moscow sees itself as having embarked upon a broad confrontation with Western powers aimed at reshaping the global order. Its continuing war in Ukraine is thus meant both to subjugate that country and assert and cement Russia’s place in Europe and the world. Russia’s global diplomacy, meanwhile, also aims to increase Moscow’s influence and underline its great power status. Crisis Group reports on developments in the war in Ukraine, domestic processes in Russia, and Russia’s relations with its neighbours and countries around the world. In its advocacy, Crisis Group encourages policies that can lead to more sustainable peace in Ukraine, Europe, and all of the conflicts in which Russia is engaged.
ISIS has claimed the lethal assault on a music venue outside the Russian capital. In this Q&A, Crisis Group expert Jerome Drevon explores the various implications of this attack.
Russia launched spring military conscription, Ukrainian strikes on energy infrastructure and industrial facilities continued, and West imposed more sanctions.
Russia launched spring conscription. Russia 1 April launched spring conscription after President Putin late March signed off on biannual order; decree sets target for 150,000 military inductees by 15 July, marking largest conscription push since 2016. Meanwhile, Ministry of Defence 3 April reported spike in recruitment following 22 March terrorist attack in capital Moscow, with about 16,000 citizens signing military service contracts in ten days. Russian officials continued to claim Ukrainian involvement in terror attack, though Kyiv has denied any role.
Ukrainian strikes persisted. Kyiv continued targeting energy infrastructure and industrial facilities, striking deep into Russian territory. Notably, 2, 17 April launched drone strikes at industrial facilities in Tatarstan region — some 1,300km from border — in attempt to damage Russia’s third-largest oil refinery and drone factory. Military 19-20 April reported shooting down 50 Ukrainian drones in eight regions; attack killed two in Belgorod region and hit energy infrastructure in Bryansk and Kaluga regions. Over 60 drones 27 April attacked Krasnodar region, including military airfield and oil refinery. Meanwhile, news agency Reuters 15 April reported that Russia and Ukraine nearly reached deal in March to ensure free and safe navigation of merchant vessels in Black Sea, but Ukraine unexpectedly withdrew at last minute.
Western countries imposed additional punitive measures. U.S. House of Representatives 20 April approved bill allowing confiscation of frozen Russian assets in U.S. banks worth $4-5bn to be used for Ukraine’s defence and recovery; Russian officials 28 April threatened “severe” response if assets are confiscated. Meanwhile, joint UK and U.S. action 12 April widened ban on metal imports, clamping down on Russia’s second largest export commodity after energy.
In other important developments. U.S. officials 12 April reported that China is exporting equipment, technology and shared space imagery to Russia for use in war against Ukraine; U.S. Sec State Antony Blinken 19 April condemned actions. Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu 26 April met his Iranian counterpart on sidelines of regional forum Shanghai Cooperation Organization in Kazakhstan, expressed readiness to expand military and technical cooperation.
Russian weapons and facilities are under solid control and there’s no evidence that Wagner or anyone else is looking to capture them.
If Russian soldiers feel their commanders are not in control, their trenches will be much easier to take for advancing Ukrainian troops.
I think they [the Kremlin] will use this [Biden's Kyiv trip] to repeat the line that this is a conflict between Russia and the West, not between Russia and Ukraine.
Russian engagement in the Sahel is very low-cost [financially]. It is distracting the West and diminishing the West’s symbolic power.
Moscow also has leverage over Türkiye in other conflict zones such as Syria and the South Caucasus, as well as a vested interest in driving a wedge between Turkey and its...
We have seen nuclear deterrence work, on the part of both Russia and Western countries.
This week on Hold Your Fire, Richard is joined by Crisis Group experts Jerome Drevon, Ibraheem Bahiss and Olga Oliker to discuss the ISIS-claimed attack on a music venue in a Moscow suburb, the global threat ISIS and its affiliates pose and what the strike might mean for Russia and the war in Ukraine.
This week on War & Peace, Olga Oliker and Elissa Jobson talk to Hanna Notte, Director for Eurasia at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, about Russia’s response to the war in Gaza, its engagement with Middle Eastern countries and prospects for regional arms control.
Crisis Group's Europe and Central Asia Program Director Olga Oliker and Senior Russia analyst Oleg Ignatov discuss the aftermath of the mutiny in Russia and what the future holds for the group.
On 24 June, President Vladimir Putin faced his biggest challenge in over two decades at Russia’s helm: a mutiny by a mercenary group fighting alongside Russian forces in Ukraine. In this Q&A, Crisis Group experts explore the implications for Putin’s rule and Russian foreign policy.
This week, Richard speaks with Crisis Group experts Olga Oliker, Jean-Hervé Jezequel and Richard Gowan about Wagner’s mutiny in Russia, what it means for the Ukraine war and for places in Africa where Wagner operates – particularly Mali, where the government’s ties to Wagner have informed its recent demand that UN peacekeepers leave.
In this online event, Crisis Group experts discuss the implications of the Wagner rebellion for Putin’s rule, the war in Ukraine, Russian foreign politics and the country’s power projections abroad.
In this Twitter Space, Crisis Group experts explore about the need for and purpose of a tribunal on the crime of aggression.
This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood talks with Olga Oliker, Crisis Group’s Europe and Central Asia director, about the latest escalation in Ukraine, as Russian airstrikes batter multiple Ukrainian cities.
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