CrisisWatch

Tracking Conflict Worldwide

CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.

Global Overview

Outlook for This Month March 2023

Conflict Risk Alerts

Resolution Opportunities

Trends for Last Month February 2023

Improved Situations

Conflict in Focus

CrisisWatch warns of one conflict risk alert in March. 

  • Deadly clashes erupted between Somaliland forces and local militias in Las Anod, the administrative capital of the contested Sool region. Violence could escalate further if fighting spreads beyond Las Anod or draws in other actors.

Our monthly conflict tracker highlighted eight deteriorations in February.

  • Back-to-back jihadist attacks in Burkina Faso left scores of military personnel dead; similar large-scale attacks in the past contributed to the ouster of former Presidents Kaboré and Damiba.
     
  • Al-Qaeda-affiliated jihadists launched their deadliest attack in Togo to date, killing dozens of civilians and indicating that the group has durably implanted itself in the country’s north.
  • In Israel-Palestine, violence soared in the West Bank as Israeli forces conducted their deadliest raid in years, Israeli settlers rampaged the town of Hawara and Palestinians staged attacks, leaving dozens of Palestinians and seven Israelis dead.
  • Tunisian President Saïed’s comments drawing links between migrants and criminality unleashed a wave of violence against sub-Saharan Africans, while authorities carried out the farthest-reaching arrest campaign in decades targeting opposition figures.
     
  • Tensions spiked in Sri Lanka after the government claimed a funding shortfall, forcing the election commission to indefinitely postpone local polls scheduled for March. Police cracked down on pro-election protests, killing an opposition politician.
     
  • Relations between Moldova and Russia sharply deteriorated amid allegations of Russian plans to topple the pro-European government in Chișinău, Russia’s accusations of provocation in the breakaway region Transnistria and its violation of Moldova’s airspace. 

Aside from the conflict situations we usually cover, we tracked notable developments in Benin and Indonesia.

CrisisWatch Digests

Our CrisisWatch Digests offer a monthly one-page snapshot of conflict-related country trends in a clear, accessible format, using a map of the region to pinpoint developments.

For our most recent CrisisWatch Digests, please follow these links for EthiopiaLebanon and Somalia.

Colombia

Petro administration’s “total peace” policy moved forward as fresh talks with ELN took place, but high levels of violence continued.

Authorities advanced peace efforts with two armed groups. Govt and National Liberation Army (ELN) 13 Feb began second round of peace talks in Mexico City, focusing on ceasefire and humanitarian access to conflict-afflicted areas. Justice Minister Néstor Osuna 22 Feb joined negotiations to address ELN concerns about conditions of imprisoned members. Delegations 25 Feb said they are working on agenda to advance process. Talks between govt and FARC-EP, dissident faction of former Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), also progressed. Sides 8 Feb signed ceasefire protocols, which crucially provide for multiparty monitoring system including govt, military, FARC-EP, Catholic Church, Organization of American State’s mission in Colombia and local activists, though mechanism is not yet active. Top peace official Danilo Rueda 21 Feb said govt expects “dialogue phase” with FARC-EP to begin in “coming weeks”. Yet in apparent breach of ceasefire, front belonging to FARC-EP same day killed one soldier in Cauca department.

Govt proposed new legislation to facilitate talks with criminal groups. Following legal crisis in Jan over ceasefires and talks with criminal outfits, govt 15 Feb presented draft law to Congress intended to address dispute over legality of ceasefire and proposal to lift arrest warrants for criminal group negotiators. Law sets out possible conditions for large-scale criminal demobilisation, such as reduced prison terms and option for individuals to retain up to 6% of ill-gotten gains.

Civilians bore brunt of continued armed and criminal group violence. Confrontations among armed and criminal groups continued unabated along Pacific coast throughout Feb, hurting civilians. Notably, UN 3 Feb said over 2,100 people in Chocó department were forcibly confined amid armed group incursion in Alto Baudó municipality; 17 Feb reported multiple mass displacements 8-13 Feb along coast of Nariño department, where two rival FARC dissident fronts are battling for control. In Guaviare department, roughly 2,000 people continued to face movement restrictions amid recent arrival of FARC dissident faction Segunda Marquetalia in area under FARC-EP control.

Venezuela