China brokered talks between regime and ethnic armed groups in northern Shan state aimed at resuming border trade, while regime lost more territory to Arakan Army in west and Kachin Independence Army in far north. 

In north, regime and Three Brotherhood Alliance engaged in talks. As 11 Jan ceasefire held in Shan state (north), regime negotiators early March met Three Brotherhood Alliance in Kunming city, China, for further negotiations on reopening China-Myanmar border trade worth billions annually, which mostly ceased after alliance’s Oct offensive; sticking points include sharing of revenue between sides. In southern Shan state, after Pao National Liberation Army aligned with resistance in Jan, regime 3 March launched destructive offensive to recapture Hsihseng town from group.

In Rakhine state (west), Arakan Army continued to capture regime positions. Arakan Army 4 March captured Ponnagyun town, barely 30km from state capital Sittwe, and 7 March claimed Ramree town – its first in central Rakhine state – located close to major Chinese infrastructure projects in neighbouring Kyaukpyu township, including oil terminal, twin gas and oil pipelines, and proposed deep-sea port and Special Economic Zone. Arakan Army also continued attacks in northern Rakhine, including in Rathedaung, Buthidaung and Maungdaw townships, and 17 March seized Rathedaung. Group 12 March seized Aung Thapyay Border Guard Police post in far northern Maungdaw, prompting 179 regime personnel to flee into Bangladesh. Regime shelling 9 March killed five Rohingya residents in Aung Mingalar ward.

In Kachin state (north), Kachin Independence Army stepped up offensive. After embarking on wave of attacks late Feb against regime positions that for over decade have encircled its Laiza headquarters, Kachin Independence Army-led forces 7-9 March seized total twenty camps in Momauk and Waingmaw townships, and assassinated head of regime-aligned Lisu People’s Militia Force. KIA offensive could impact already-strained communal relations between Jinghpaw majority, which leads KIA, and minority groups in Kachin state, including Shanni and Lisu. 

Regime’s conscription drive sparked tensions and recruitment race. Regime’s decision in Feb to enforce dormant military service law reportedly triggered killings of at least dozen local officials tasked with overseeing process, and sparked conscription race with ethnic armed groups, as latter reported increase in recruits. 

Arakan Army won string of victories against regime in Rakhine state, while ceasefire in Shan state permitted regime to reclaim territory in centre as it activated conscription law amid battlefield losses. 

In Rakhine state, Arakan Army maintained battlefield momentum. Following its capture of towns and military camps in Jan, Arakan Army evicted military from several key strongholds and gained control over four more towns, as well as seizing huge quantities of arms and ammunition. Notably, Arakan Army 8 Feb captured Mrauk-U town – marking highly symbolic victory given town’s status as capital of Rakhine kingdom until 18th century. Group now enjoys firm grip on much of northern and central Rakhine state, with state capital Sittwe possibly within reach. Hostilities in Rakhine raised prospect of spillover into Bangladesh, including thousands of Rohingya fleeing from Myanmar (see Bangladesh). Likewise, India’s foreign ministry 1 Feb voiced “concern over deteriorating situation in Myanmar”, with hundreds of regime soldiers having fled into India to escape Arakan Army. 

Limited ceasefire held in Shan state, as military turned focus to central Myanmar. Military, Ta’ang National Liberation Army and Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army all largely observed 11 Jan ceasefire during Feb, while Kachin Independence Army continued attacks in region. Military launched offensives in country’s centre to recapture several towns lost to resistance forces since early Nov. Notably, regime 10 Feb recaptured Kawlin town – largest to come under resistance control – after week of heavy fighting. 

Regime activated old conscription law. Regime 10 Feb announced it had put into effect People’s Military Service Law more than decade after it was enacted, enabling men aged 18-35 and women aged 18-27 to be conscripted for five years; measure raises questions about military’s troop levels given heavy losses it has endured in recent months and difficulties it has faced recruiting since coup. Activation of law caused panic, with thousands of young men trying to flee country, despite regime claims that it would only conscript 5,000 per month out of 10mn people potentially eligible for service. 

In another important development. UN Security Council 5 Feb held closed-door meeting with ASEAN Special Envoy following his Jan visit to Myanmar.

Regime remained on backfoot as ethnic armed groups in north expanded control before agreeing to another tenuous ceasefire, while Arakan Army made major gains in west; regime extended state of emergency for six months. 

Three Brotherhood Alliance seized territory in Shan State before partial ceasefire. After collapse of China-brokered peace talks on 23 Dec, heavy clashes continued between Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) – member of Three Brotherhood Alliance – and regime in Kokang Self-Administered Zone in northern Shan State, where MNDAA seized full control of Laukkai town as 2,400 soldiers 3 Jan surrendered. Brotherhood Alliance 6 Jan attacked Hopang and Pan Lone towns in regime-controlled part of Wa Self-Administered Division. Concurrently, Brotherhood member Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) clashed heavily with regime forces in bid to solidify its control in northern Shan State, capturing Kutkai town on 7 Jan; TNLA consolidated its position around Lashio, Kyaukme and Hsipaw towns. Following third round of China-brokered talks, regime and Brotherhood Alliance 11 Jan agreed to ceasefire in northern Shan State; TNLA, however, 13 Jan accused regime of launching airstrikes in Kyaukme and Mogoke townships. 

Arakan Army (AA) broadened its offensive in Rakhine. With 11 Jan ceasefire not applying to Rakhine theatre, AA (member of alliance) 15 Jan captured all of Paletwa township and detained regime brigadier-general before expanding operations further south, forcing battalion of regime soldiers to surrender in Minbya on 17 Jan, and seizing Pauktaw town, close to state capital Sittwe, on 24 Jan. 

Hostilities persisted in Kachin and Kayah states. After Kachin Independence Army (KIA) mid Dec captured two outposts in Kachin State from military and allied militia forces, KIA 3 Jan shot down regime Mi-17 transport helicopter near Laiza, killing six crew members. In Kayah, Karenni Nationalities Defence Force and other allied groups claimed to control more than 80% of state capital Loikaw. 

Regime extended state of emergency. Despite devastating battlefield losses and unprecedented nationalist criticism of regime leader Min Aung Hlaing, regime showed little sign of panic: Min Aung Hlaing 4 Jan announced plans to hold national census to improve voter list for general election. On eve of third anniversary of coup, regime 31 Jan extended state of emergency for six months.

China brokered limited truce between military and ethnic armed group in Shan State before talks faltered, while fierce fighting persisted in several areas between regime and other ethnic armed groups.

Armed groups expanded control over northern Shan State. Following launch of “Operation 1027”, Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) – member of Three Brotherhood Alliance – early Dec continued to expand control over northern Shan State by capturing several major bases and outposts, including around Laukkaing town where group established stranglehold; MNDAA 29 Nov said 184 regime soldiers surrendered in area. Elsewhere in Shan State, Three Brotherhood member Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) continued to press regime along much of Mandalay-Muse highway; clashes 1 Dec took place near Kyaukme town and group 6 Dec seized regime outpost in Monglon town. TNLA 15 Dec captured Namhsan town despite intensive regime airstrikes. Offering respite after six weeks of hostilities, China 11 Dec brokered limited ceasefire between regime and MNDAA in meeting in China, as sides reportedly agreed to halt fighting until end of Dec and create safe corridor for civilians and officials to leave Laukkaing; however, limited fighting continued and then escalated after further talks on 23 Dec broke down.

In Rakhine State, Arakan Army (AA) struggled against well-prepared regime. AA clashed with regime forces in several parts of Rakhine State during Dec, as regime maintained blockade on major roads and waterways that led to skyrocketing food, fuel and medicine prices. In Chin State, AA early Dec captured two large bases on Kaladan River in Paletwa Township, after weeks of heavy fighting.

Hostilities persisted in Kayah and Kayin states and Bago Region. In Kayah State, regime and resistance forces remained locked in month-long battle for state capital Loikaw; Karenni Nationalities Defence Force claimed control of more than half of town, but regime airstrikes destroyed hundreds of homes. Regime artillery fire 9 Dec scorched town’s main market. In Kayin State, Karen National Liberation Army (KNLA) struggled to capture Kawkareik town on Yangon-Myawaddy highway. In Bago region, KNLA and allied PDF forces 2 Dec captured most of Mone town before subsequently retreating under heavy regime airstrikes.

Military faced largest battlefield challenges since Feb 2021 coup as ethnic armed groups conducted attacks on multiple fronts; regime may step up brutal response, including indiscriminate bombings, in coming weeks.

Ethnic armed groups and resistance forces made major gains in north. After Three Brotherhood Alliance – comprising the three ethnic armed groups active in northern Shan State: Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) and Arakan Army (AA) – and allied resistance groups 27 Oct launched “Operation 1027”, in Nov their forces seized over 130 outposts from regime, inflicted casualties (including Brigadier-General) and major materiel losses on military, captured string of towns in China border area, and destroyed or secured important bridges and blocked major highways, constituting significant strategic, economic and psychological blows to military. Military responded with airstrikes and artillery, which failed to counter operation but caused civilian casualties and displaced some 82,000 in Shan state and 335,000 nationwide (bringing total number of civilians displaced since coup to over 2m). In sign of possibly greater inter-ethnic tensions to come, Shan State Progress Party 7 Nov clashed with TNLA in Muse Township, killing several.

Other groups took advantage on several fronts, threatening to overstretch military. In early Nov, one of largest ethnic armed groups – Kachin Independence Organisation (KIO) – led assault together with people’s defence forces on north-western Kawlin town in Sagaing Region, which fell after several days of fighting. Additionally, resistance forces in Kayah State 11 Nov commenced “Operation 1111”, assaulting state capital Loikaw; they claimed to have shot down air force jet. Even more significantly, AA 13 Nov started series of attacks in Rakhine State, ending period of calm that followed informal ceasefire in Nov 2022. In western Myanmar, Chin forces 13 Nov attacked Rikhawdar town on India-Myanmar border, ultimately seizing it. For first time in decades, military will have to fight numerous, determined and well-armed opponents simultaneously in multiple theatres; it may double down on brutal efforts to reverse tide on battlefield, including scorched-earth tactics and indiscriminate bombing in coming weeks.

Ethnic armed group in Shan state launched one of largest offensives in years, which may provoke further clashes with regime in coming weeks; explosion near internally displaced camp in Kachin state killed dozens.

Ethnic armed group launched large-scale offensive in north. In Shan state (north), Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) – ethnic Kokang armed group – and allies 27 Oct launched seemingly one of its most significant offensives in several years: forces made series of pre-dawn raids on twelve towns across north of state, including Chin Shwe Haw town on Chinese border, in bid to take over Kokang Self-Administered Zone, which it controlled until 2009 when military offensive ousted it and installed rival Kokang faction. Military responded with airstrikes across northern Shan State, with hostilities likely to escalate in coming weeks.

Blast at IDP camp killed dozens amid hostilities in several areas. Huge explosion close to Munglai Hkyet IDP camp in Kachin state (north) 9 Oct killed 29 people and left more than 50 injured; Kachin Independence Army blamed “high-tech” drone strike, but military denied responsibility. Rights group Amnesty International 13 Oct said damage “is consistent with the largest aerial-delivered bombs” possessed by military, while International Institute for Strategic Studies 23 Oct said blast likely caused by regime artillery strike on stored ammonium nitrate or munitions. In central Myanmar, fighting continued between military and People’s Defence Forces and other resistance forces; among heaviest clashes were hostilities in Kantbalu Township in northern Sagaing region, forcing as many as 10,000 people to flee. In Kayah state (south east), 60-vehicle military convoy deployed to recapture territory in Mese township reached its destination in nearby Bawlake after weeks of heavy fighting.

Regime celebrated 2015 nationwide ceasefire. Regime 15 Oct held ceremony marking eighth anniversary of Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement, but only seven of ten signatories attended as three groups have since aligned with anti-coup resistance forces.

Parallel govt addressed allegations of abuses. Amid growing reports of abuses and infighting among resistance forces, National Unity Govt 3 Oct said “they must be conducted fairly and transparently”; days later, video footage emerged purportedly showing resistance forces in Sagaing region carrying out extrajudicial killings late Sept.

Regime and resistance forces battled in several regions as tensions rose with Arakan Army in Rakhine state; junta confirmed election delay and regional bloc ASEAN condemned regime’s inaction.

Regime and resistance forces continued hostilities across multiple parts of country. In Kachin state (north), clashes continued between Kachin Independence Army (KIA) and military: fierce fighting 6 Sept erupted south of Namsan Yang village and KIA 9-12 Sept assaulted military convoy seeking to reinforce positions by road from state capital, forcing convoy’s retreat. In northern Shan State (east), hostilities intensified between Ta’ang National Liberation Army and military, notably around Sei Lant village on border with China and between Kuktai town and Namhpatkar village on Mandalay-Muse highway. In Rakhine state (west), tensions rose between Arakan Army and military as both sides staged tit-for-tat arrests of other’s members. In Kayah state (centre-east), regime forces made slow progress towards rebel-held southern areas amid fierce opposition after resistance forces in June seized large parts of Mese township on Thai border. In Kayin state (centre-east), Karen National Liberation Army (KNLA) and allied forces waged attacks on isolated regime outposts: notably, KNLA 1 Sept seized post in Kyaukkyi township, sparking fierce fighting, and allied forces 3 Sept launched drone strike on administrative office in Myawaddy border town, killing five.

Regime signalled election delays and signed confidential agreement with minor groups. Regime leader Min Aung Hlaing 1 Sept reiterated that election will be held only after Oct 2024 national census; data of census is unlikely to be finalised before mid-2025 and conducting count is likely to trigger violence. Meanwhile, regime delegation and five signatories of 2015 Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement 31 Aug signed “final comprehensive peace agreement”, although terms were not revealed; groups are relatively minor players in country’s conflicts.

ASEAN adopted new response mechanism. ASEAN leaders 5 Sept revealed formation of “troika” comprising former, current and upcoming bloc chairs to manage response to crisis; in group’s strongest condemnation to date, leaders said they “were gravely concerned by the lack of substantial progress”; bloc decided Myanmar will not take up rotating chair in 2026.

Regime battled resistance forces, notably in Shan State in north, while regime expelled Timor-Leste’s top diplomat to protest engagement with parallel National Unity Government (NUG).

Clashes continued between military and ethnic armed groups and resistance forces. Fighting escalated in northern and central Shan State (north) between regime forces and ethnic armed groups after military and Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) clashed in late July for first time since Dec 2022. Notably, hostilities 29 July-3 Aug continued in pocket of territory in Muse Township; TNLA claimed up to 25 regime soldiers and militia members were killed and released photos of large amount of seized weaponry. Fighting was also reported between two sides further south in Lashio Township. Meanwhile, clashes continued between military and Kachin Independence Army (KIA). Military 2 Aug drove KIA and aligned People’s Defence Forces out of strategic Nabar junction in northern Sagaing Region (north) and 4 Aug carried out airstrikes at Mali Yang village in Waingmaw, damaging transmission lines that carry electricity from Kachin Independence Organisation-run hydropower station to state capital Myitkyina. Clashes 7 Aug erupted in jade mining township of Hpakant. Karen National Union 10 Aug declared Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement had been rendered null and void because regime had “destroyed” principles of deal; seven of ten initial groups continue to engage regime in process.

Regime expelled Timor-Leste’s top diplomat. Regime 27 Aug announced that it had ordered charge d’affaires of Timor-Leste’s embassy in Yangon to leave country by 1 Sept following series of engagements between Timor-Leste and rival NUG, including between Timor-Leste’s president and NUG earlier in Aug.

UN’s top humanitarian official visited capital as security council condemned violence. UN Under-Secretary General and Emergency Relief Coordinator Martin Griffiths 15-17 Aug visited Naypyitaw, meeting with regime leader Min Aung Hlaing to push for greater humanitarian access; Griffiths called on donors to increase their funding. UN Security Council, except China and Russia, 23 Aug backed statement condemning “unrelenting violence” and lack of progress on Council resolution passed in Dec calling for end to violence and release of all political prisoners.

Regime troops battled resistance forces, junta extended state of emergency and delayed election, and Thai FM visited deposed leader Aung San Suu Kyi in first contact since her 2021 detention.

Clashes continued in several parts of country between military and ethnic armed groups and post-coup resistance forces. In south east, Karen National Liberation Army (KNLA) and its allies continued to target roads and bridges. Following late June attack on bridge between Mon State’s Thaton township and Bago region’s Kyaukkyi township that killed four regime officials, KNLA and People’s Defence Forces 6 July blew up 20m bridge from Kyaikto town to Kyaiktiyo Pagoda. In Kachin state (north), following mounting tensions amid growing military deployments in area, fighting early July erupted in area close to Kachin Independence Organisation (KIO) headquarters, displacing around 500; military helicopter 8 July attacked KIO position as sides clashed for several days along main road from state capital Myitkyina to Chinese border. In Shan state (north), KIO launched offensive on Kutkai township, clashing with regime for first time in five months. In Yangon, regime security forces 7 July shot two men arrested on suspicion of involvement in killing of pro-junta singer; activists alleged soldiers executed them.

Regime hinted elections delay until 2025 before extending state of emergency. Junta immigration and population minister Myint Kyaing 2 July said 2024 census and national ID cards are required for voter lists, suggesting national election will only take place after Oct 2024 census sometime in 2025; junta 31 July extended state of emergency by six months.

Regime granted first meeting with Aung San Suu Kyi, and discussed border unrest with India. Thailand’s FM Don Pramudwinai 11 July announced he met deposed leader Aung San Suu Kyi in Naypyitaw prison two days earlier. Statement by regional bloc ASEAN ahead of 14 July meeting said some members considered Don’s efforts “positive development”, implying others do not. Senior Indian officials 30 June-1 July met regime counterparts in Naypyitaw to discuss crime and unrest along shared border amid allegations that Kukis in India’s Manipur state have received support from Chin brethren in Myanmar (see India).

Deadly hostilities between military and resistance forces continued countrywide, regime curtailed relief operations following cyclone and Thailand sought high-level engagement with regime.

Countrywide clashes continued between military and ethnic armed groups. In Sagaing region (north west), military 4 June raided People’s Defence Forces (PDF) camp in Budalin township and allegedly executed three detained fighters. Regime forces 5 June used 18 people from nine villages in Kawlin township as human shields, leaving at least nine dead. Around 80 soldiers 7 June raided PDF camp in Monywa township. Three resistance groups 9 June raided police station in Salingyi township, claiming to have killed eleven officers. After fighting escalated between regime and Karen National Liberation Army (KNLA) in May, KNLA and resistance forces 1 June staged attack on bridge in Thaton township linking Mon and Kayin states, reportedly inflicting heavy casualties. In Bago region (south east), KNLA and allies 6 June destroyed major bridge in Kyaukkyi township. Assailants 7 June shot dead army major and village administrator in Kyauktaga township. Meanwhile, conflict intensified in Chin state (north west) as regime forces sought to clear resistance groups from strategic locations.

Regime pursued peace talks with select armed groups. Regime peace negotiators 1-2 June met representatives of three ethnic armed groups (Arakan Army, Ta’ang National Liberation Army and Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army - MNDAA, which collectively make up Three Brothers Alliance) for first time since coup, with Chinese facilitation; no concrete progress was made and fighting erupted in Laukkaing townships with MNDAA during talks.

Junta closely controlled relief following Cyclone. Amid aftermath of 14 May cyclone that was strongest ever to make landfall on Myanmar coast, regime 8 June rejected UN aid distribution plan and rescinded existing travel authorisations; acting UN resident coordinator 12 June described restrictions as “devastating setback”. Consequently, only small amount of aid reached 1.6m affected people.

Thailand sought to boost engagement with junta. Thai FM 19 June hosted meeting of Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) FMs with ultimate aim to “fully re-engage Myanmar at the leaders’ level”, to which only Myanmar and Laos sent respective FMs; ASEAN chair Indonesia criticised Thai initiative, reflecting lack of consensus within regional bloc.