Efforts to advance peace deal with Azerbaijan continued amid tense debates about border villages; Yerevan sought closer ties with West as relations with Russia cooled.

Tensions over settlements erupted after border commission meeting. Amid stepped-up peace efforts in recent weeks, Azerbaijan and Armenia 7 March conducted seventh meeting of sides’ border delimitation commissions; parties agreed to finalise draft regulation for commissions’ activities and delimitation procedures “as soon as possible”. After meeting, Azerbaijani Deputy PM Shahin Mustafayev 9 March said Yerevan should return four non-enclave Azerbaijani villages it has held since early 1990s before sides start delimiting and demarcating border; villages are strategically positioned along highway leading to Georgia and near pipeline supplying Russian gas to Armenia. PM Pashinyan 18 March acknowledged govt had “decided to adjust the border”, warning of another war if sides refuse to compromise; issue set to fuel domestic discontent. Meanwhile, U.S. Senior Adviser for Caucasus Louis Bono and NATO Sec Gen Jens Stoltenberg visited Armenia and Azerbaijan separately during month to discuss peace agreement.

Armenia pivoted further away from Russia and towards West. Armenia-Russia relations continued to cool as former sought to reduce dependence on Russian security assistance. Notably, Security Council Secretary Armen Grigoryan 6 March said Armenian border guards should replace Russian guards at Yerevan’s Zvartnots International Airport; and Pashinyan 12 March floated leaving Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization. Meanwhile, Grigoryan 21 March announced Pashinyan will meet with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and U.S. Sec State Antony Blinken in Brussels on 5 April. Meeting to focus on trilateral cooperation aimed at strengthening Armenia’s “economic resilience” and steps that lay groundwork for future EU integration; Azerbaijan 27 March criticised upcoming talks as “one-sided” and “biased”. 

Baku accused Yerevan of massing troops along border. Azerbaijan 31 March accused Armenia of troop build-up along border; Armenia same day denied allegation, while EU Border Observation Mission reported “no unusual movements”.

Armenian and Azerbaijani foreign ministers met for German-facilitated talks following deadly escalation along border; PM Pashinyan’s calls for new constitution triggered criticism.  

Deadly border clashes shattered months of relative calm. Azerbaijan’s State Border Service 12 Feb reported that Armenian troops fired at Azerbaijani positions in its Zangelan district, wounding one soldier. Situation escalated as Azerbaijan’s State Border Service 13 Feb announced “retaliatory operation” that left four Armenian soldiers dead, one wounded and an army post near Nerkin Hand village in southern Syunik region destroyed. EU High Representative Josep Borrell 13 Feb condemned Baku’s “disproportionate” response to shooting and reiterated that EU Mission in Armenia (EUMA), tasked with monitoring situation along Armenian side of border, had been reinforced; announcement came amid growing dissatisfaction from Baku with EUMA, whom it 12 Feb accused of facilitating visits by European officials and unofficial delegations to border. Risk of further small-scale clashes persists. 

Armenian, Azerbaijani leaders met in Munich, paving way for talks between FMs. Pashinyan, Aliyev and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz 17 Feb held tripartite meeting on sidelines of Munich Security Conference. Less than two weeks later, German FM 28-29 Feb hosted her Armenian and Azerbaijani counterparts for talks focused on peace treaty; pair vowed to continue negotiations. 

Pashinyan’s calls for new constitution ignited controversy. Pashinyan 1 Feb reiterated mid-Jan call for fresh constitution, citing “new geopolitical and regional realities”. Among other reforms, Pashinyan said it should remove provision calling for unification of Armenia with (now former) Nagorno-Karabakh. Aliyev same day weighed in, stating peace could be achieved if Yerevan amends constitution and other laws, which he said make claims on Azerbaijani territory. Comments prompted critics to accuse Pashinyan of bowing to Azerbaijani demands, and may lead to renewed calls for his resignation or fresh protests. 

In other important developments. Pashinyan 22 Feb announced Yerevan had frozen membership in Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization amid souring ties with Moscow, though latter same day said Yerevan had not launched formal process to suspend membership. Armenia and France 23 Feb struck defence deal.

Baku and Yerevan continued bilateral work on peace treaty, but internationally mediated talks remained on hold. 

Baku and Yerevan exchanged draft peace treaty amid simmering tensions. Bilateral efforts on Armenia-Azerbaijan peace treaty continued, with Yerevan 4 Jan returning draft proposal to Baku. In interview that nearly derailed efforts, however, Azerbaijani President Aliyev 10 Jan said Baku could cease participation in talks should Yerevan refuse to compromise, notably regarding security measures along border; he also reiterated calls for Russian-supervised corridor connecting mainland with exclave Nakhchivan, threatened military action if Armenia continued to procure weapons or ever sought to reclaim Nagorno-Karabakh (see Armenian-Azerbaijani Conflict) and claimed “all of Zangezur” – alluding to southern Armenia – and other areas were historically Azerbaijani territory. PM Pashinyan 13 Jan decried “unacceptable territorial claims” but later softened stance, while EU 22 Jan threatened “severe consequences” if Armenia’s territorial integrity is violated. Sides 31 Jan held fresh talks on border delimitation but provided no details on what was discussed. 

Baku continued to reject foreign mediation as Russia sought greater role. Senior EU and U.S. officials mid Jan travelled to capital Yerevan for talks, but not to Azerbaijan amid speculation in Azerbaijani media about cooling relations with West over Baku’s takeover of Nagorno-Karabakh (see Azerbaijan). Russia, meanwhile, sought to reassert its dominant role in region. Notably, ruling party 16 Jan confirmed partial delivery of Russian weaponry to Armenia after two-year delay; Russian FM Lavrov 18 Jan touted Russian mediation in 2023, blamed West for acting as spoiler. 

In another important development. PM Pashinyan and his Georgian counterpart 26 Jan signed memorandum on “strategic partnership” in Georgia’s capital Tbilisi.

Yerevan and Baku agreed to confidence-building measures, including prisoner swap, in bilateral deal; Armenia accused Azerbaijani forces of killing soldier.

Baku and Yerevan announced surprise deal. PM’s Office and Azerbaijan’s Presidential Administration 7 Dec issued joint statement announcing sides had agreed to seize “historical chance to achieve a long-awaited peace” with bilateral deal on confidence-building measures. Statement said Baku would release 32 Armenian soldiers and Yerevan would release two Azerbaijanis in “gesture of goodwill”; as part of deal, Armenia also voted in support of Azerbaijan’s bid to host UN climate change conference in 2024 (COP29), while Azerbaijan agreed to support Armenia’s candidacy for membership in COP Bureau. EU, U.S., Türkiye and Russia 7-8 Dec welcomed agreement.

International efforts to resume formal peace talks continued. U.S. Assistant Sec State James O’Brien 6 Dec met with Azerbaijan’s President Aliyev in Baku; during meeting Aliyev acknowledged that U.S. “could contribute” to peace process, O’Brien said he looked forward to hosting both countries’ FMs “soon”. PM Pashinyan and Aliyev 26 Dec met informally on sidelines of Commonwealth of Independent States summit in St. Petersburg city (Russia); Kremlin same day announced sides expressed readiness to finalise peace treaty, offered Russian assistance but gave no indication on timeline. Meanwhile, Yerevan 25 Dec confirmed receiving latest peace deal draft from Baku.

Armenia claimed Azerbaijani forces killed soldier. Yerevan 4 Dec accused Baku of killing Armenian soldier, which latter denied. Meanwhile, EU 11 Dec agreed to expand civilian mission in Armenia from 138 to 209 staff; Azerbaijan next day criticised move, claiming mission had failed to foster regional stability.

In other important developments. Authorities rejected proposal from former Nagorno-Karabakh representatives to create govt-in-exile in capital Yerevan (see Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict).

Armenia-Azerbaijan peace talks remained on hold amid latter’s cooling relations with EU and U.S., ties with Russia deteriorated further, and fears of border escalation simmered.

Peace talks with Azerbaijan remained on hold. Azerbaijan’s drift away from EU and U.S.-facilitated peace talks continued. Having twice cancelled participation in EU-mediated meetings in Oct, Baku 16 Nov withdrew from meeting between Azerbaijani and Armenian FMs slated for 20 Nov in Washington DC, criticising “one-sided and biased” remarks by Assistant Sec State James O’Brien; O’Brien earlier that day had spoken publicly about U.S. decision to pause bilateral cooperation with Azerbaijan until peace deal was reached with Armenia. Instead, Azerbaijan 21 Nov proposed direct negotiations with Armenia in “mutually acceptable” location. In meantime, Armenia 21 Nov returned sixth draft of peace treaty to Azerbaijan. Deputy PMs of Azerbaijan and Armenia 30 Nov held fifth meeting of border-delimitation commissions, agreed to “intensify” talks.

EU boosted support to Armenia, whose relations with Moscow kept worsening. EU High Representative Josep Borrell 13 Nov announced decision to expand EU Mission in Armenia with “more observers and more patrols” along border with Azerbaijan; Borrell also said EU would consider military support and visa liberalisation options for Armenia. Baku next day responded to “biased policy” by cancelling bilateral projects and visits to EU. French delivery of 50 armoured vehicles 13 Nov arrived in Armenia, which Azerbaijan same day “strongly” condemned. Meanwhile, Armenia 14 Nov announced it would skip Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization summit in Belarus amid deteriorating relations with Moscow; Kremlin next day said West was “obviously behind” decision.

Yerevan worried about potential border escalation. As fears of new escalation along border due to stalled talks persisted, Yerevan 18 Nov reported one soldier injured close to Azerbaijani exclave Nakhichevan. Yerevan next day hosted Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe summit, where PM Pashinyan reiterated desire for peace but warned Baku was preparing for “new armed aggression”.

PM Pashinyan expressed hope for peace deal with Azerbaijan in coming months amid flurry of international diplomacy; Yerevan ratified Rome Statute.

Various international actors stepped up efforts for peace deal with Azerbaijan. Following Azerbaijan’s one-day military offensive in Nagorno-Karabakh (see Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan)), EU prepared for 5 Oct talks between PM Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev in Granada, Spain, moderated by French, German and EU leaders; Baku day before announced Aliyev would not attend, citing French bias toward Armenia and France’s refusal to include Türkiye in discussions. Meeting in Belgian capital Brussels slated for late Oct postponed. FMs from Iran, Türkiye and Russia 23 Oct met Armenian and Azerbaijani counterparts in Iran. Participants reiterated respect for sovereignty, territorial integrity and “non-interference in internal affairs” after Iranian and Russian FMs criticised Western intervention in region. Speaking from Georgian capital Tbilisi, with Azerbaijani and Georgian PMs in attendance, Pashinyan 26 Oct announced sides were working on deal that could be signed “in coming months”.

Fears of new war between Armenia and Azerbaijan persisted. Baku’s successful military operation in Nagorno-Karabakh raised fears of another offensive, this time into Armenia’s Syunik region, to establish transport corridor linking Azerbaijan with its exclave, Nakhchivan. Azerbaijan’s chief negotiator Elchin Amirbayov 16 Oct sought to assuage fears and emphasised that Baku’s primary concern was safety of Azerbaijani passengers travelling through corridor. Azerbaijan 23 Oct began military drills with Türkiye, including near border with Armenia and in Nakhchivan. France same day announced sale of weapons to Armenia as Pashinyan signalled plans to reduce reliance on Russia for security. Meanwhile, escalation 3 Oct in Vardenis town bordering Azerbaijan’s Kelbajar district left one Armenian soldier dead and two wounded; sides traded blame for incident.

In other important developments. Yerevan 26 Oct adopted decree granting refugee status to over 100,000 people who fled Nagorno-Karabakh. Parliament 3 Oct ratified founding treaty of International Criminal Court, known as Rome Statute.

Azerbaijan amassed troops at border with Armenia ahead of its lightening offensive in Nagorno-Karabakh (NK), which triggered mass exodus into Armenia and anti-govt protests; EU held talks with envoys from Yerevan and Baku.

Armenia reported troop build-up along Azerbaijan border before NK offensive. Azerbaijan 19 Sept launched military operation in Nagorno-Karabakh, 20 Sept declaring victory after 24 hours of fighting that left hundreds dead (see Nagorno-Karabakh). Before offensive, Yerevan early Sept had begun reporting military build-up along Armenia-Azerbaijan border in south close to Iran, and between Azerbaijan’s Kelbajar and Armenia’s Gegharkunik region – deadliest front in periodic skirmishes since 2020 war; EU civilian monitoring mission along Armenian side of border 7 Sept echoed concerns. Yet despite rising tensions along border and Azerbaijan’s offensive in NK, sides appeared at pains to avoid escalation, with PM Pashinyan 19 Sept saying Armenia would not be dragged into fight.

Refugees poured into Armenia as anti-govt protests rocked capital. After Baku’s victory in NK, Yerevan 21 Sept announced plans to host up to 40,000 families from enclave amid humanitarian crisis and fears of ethnic cleansing. By 30 Sept, authorities reported over 100,000 arrivals, with more expected in coming weeks. U.S. and EU 26 Sept pledged millions to support displaced. Meanwhile, outrage over Armenia’s inaction in NK spurred thousands into streets of capital, demanding Pashinyan’s resignation. Police 25 Sept confirmed 142 people had been arrested, though opposition groups put number at around 300.

EU held talks with envoys from Yerevan and Baku. Envoys from Baku and Yerevan 26 Sept met with EU, German and French officials in Brussels to prepare for potential meeting between Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Aliyev early Oct; meeting followed televised address by Pashinyan 21 Sept, in which he justified talks with Baku “for the sake of independence”. Meanwhile, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan 25 Sept met with Aliyev in Azerbaijan’s Nakhchivan exclave for talks; Erdoğan later said Zangezur road, which would link Azerbaijan proper to Nakhchivan via Armenia, should be completed.

UN Security Council (UNSC) held emergency session on humanitarian crisis in Nagorno-Karabakh (NK); violence flared along Armenia-Azerbaijan border.

UNSC failed to pass resolution on NK during emergency session. Deteriorating humanitarian situation in NK due to Lachin blockade (see Nagorno-Karabakh) sharpened tensions between Azerbaijan and Armenia, with latter 11 Aug formally requesting emergency UNSC session to address situation. During 16 Aug session, UNSC members highlighted worsening humanitarian situation and called for resumption of aid deliveries – halted in July – but did not pass resolution on matter. PM Pashinyan 17 Aug said UNSC “reaffirmed the existence of a humanitarian crisis”, which therefore contradicted Azerbaijan’s denial of blockade; Azerbaijan same day dismissed Armenia’s failed “attempt to instrumentalise” UNSC.

Violence flared at Armenia-Azerbaijan border. Azerbaijan early Aug claimed its forces had intercepted two Armenian reconnaissance drones heading toward Lachin region. Sides throughout month traded blame for shootings along border between Azerbaijan’s Kelbajar district and Armenia’s Gegharkunik region. Notably, Armenia 15 Aug claimed Azerbaijan fired at individuals from EU civilian observation mission, which EU same day confirmed. Armenia 14 Aug reported one soldier injured, 21 Aug reported one serviceman “fatally wounded”; Azerbaijan 16 Aug said it injured and detained Armenian soldier and 22 Aug reported one of its soldiers injured.

Yerevan and Baku continued to engage in high-level dialogue under U.S., EU and Russian auspices, as sides traded blame for border clashes.

International efforts to advance talks between Armenia and Azerbaijan persisted. Following June meeting in Washington, Armenian and Azerbaijani leaders 15 July convened in Brussels for talks mediated by European Council President Charles Michel. Michel stated EU’s readiness to help finance railroad construction in region; he also reiterated need to unblock Lachin road connecting Nagorno-Karabakh with Armenia amid deteriorating humanitarian situation and noted possibility of sending aid from Azerbaijan-controlled Agdam region into enclave, saying “both options [are] important … to ensure the needs of the population are met” (see Nagorno-Karabakh). Russian FM Sergei Lavrov 25 July held talks with Armenian and Azerbaijani FMs in Moscow, but meeting produced no tangible results.

Violent incidents occurred along border with Azerbaijan. Baku and Yerevan between 9 and 19 July reported multiple clashes along shared border, trading blame for incidents; clashes 11 July wounded one Azerbaijani soldier, 12 July injured two Armenian soldiers. Meanwhile, EU 18 July permitted third states to contribute to EU Civilian Mission along Armenian side of border with Azerbaijan; Canada 21 July announced plans to deploy two experts.

Border commissions reconvened after lengthy pause. Armenian and Azerbaijani border commissions 12 July convened at state border to resume delimitation and demarcation process following prolonged pause. Countries, however, continued to disagree on which maps to use for defining border and meeting concluded without breakthrough.

Yerevan continued high-level talks with Baku, as exchanges of fire along border and in Nagorno-Karabakh (NK) caused injuries.

Leaders reached impasse during talks in Moldova, FMs met in Washington. PM Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev 1 June held meeting with European Council President Charles Michel, French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in Moldova’s capital Chişinău; participants agreed to attend follow-up meeting in Brussels on 21 July but achieved little else. During meeting with members of Armenian community in Moldova, Pashinyan 1 June indicated willingness for an enclave exchange on condition sides use mutually agreed-upon map to draw border. U.S. 27-29 June hosted fresh negotiations between FMs of both Azerbaijan and Armenia, with U.S. Sec State Antony Blinken 29 June saying sides made “further progress” toward peace agreement but that “hard work” remains to be done.

Clashes with Azerbaijan continued along border and in NK. Armenia 14 June claimed Azerbaijani gunfire injured two Indian nationals in Yeraskh village in Ararat region on border; Azerbaijan same day denied accusation and blamed Armenian troops for “intensive fire” in Sadarak district of Azerbaijan’s Nakhichevan exclave on 13-14 June. In NK, Azerbaijan 15 June claimed gunfire from Armenian territory injured soldier in Lachin corridor connecting NK with Armenia, prompting Baku to tighten its blockade of corridor (see Nagorno-Karabakh); Armenia claimed one of its soldiers was injured when Azerbaijani forces sought to advance into its territory.

In other important developments. Pashinyan 3 June visited Turkish capital Ankara to attend inauguration ceremony of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, marking first visit to Türkiye by Armenian leader in over decade; leaders 28 June called for “confidence-building measures” to continue during phone call. After EU 21 June approved 11th sanctions package against Russia, Deputy FM Mnatsakan Safaryan same day expressed concern, claiming sanctions “make it unbearable for Armenia economy-wise and security-wise”.