Gaza faced “imminent famine” as Israel targeted and restricted aid and reiterated threat to invade Rafah amid stalled ceasefire talks; Israel intensified crackdown on West Bank and clashed with Hizbollah in north.

Amid imminent famine in Gaza, Israel killed thousands more and restricted aid. Israel continued its war, killing at least 32,700 since Oct and displacing two million; UNRWA head 13 March reported 12,300 of those killed were children, a higher toll than all children killed in conflict worldwide from 2019-2022. Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) 18 March warned “famine is imminent as 1.1 million people, half of Gaza, experience catastrophic food insecurity”. Israel continuously blocked and restricted aid supplies in March, as starvation/dehydration killed at least 27 children in northern Gaza, and Israeli forces mid-March killed dozens of Palestinians waiting for aid delivery in Gaza city. Israel 24 March banned UNRWA food aid deliveries to north. Meanwhile, Israeli PM Netanyahu repeatedly reiterated intention to invade Rafah, currently sheltering 1.5 million Palestinians, to eliminate remaining Hamas forces despite U.S. opposition; Israeli forces 18 March for second time besieged al-Shifa hospital, where over 30,000 have sought shelter, claiming Hamas re-organised itself there; following Israeli withdrawal, reports of alleged atrocities surfaced. Ceasefire negotiations continued. Hamas 15 March reiterated demand for 40-day ceasefire leading to end of hostilities, withdrawal of Israeli troops and detainee exchange, which Israel rejected as “unrealistic”. Stop-start talks thereafter continued, offering hope deal could avert Rafah offensive. UN Security Council 25 March called for “immediate ceasefire” during Ramadan; Israel rebuked U.S. for its abstention. 

Israel ramped up crackdown in West Bank and East Jerusalem. Settler violence remained high, while Israel deployed around 15,000 additional soldiers to West Bank during Ramadan and intensified crackdown on Muslim worshippers in East Jerusalem. Israeli forces continued raids, killing at least 434 since 7 Oct; notably, Israeli drone strike 20 March killed four in Jenin refugee camp. 

Internal divisions wracked Israeli govt. Israel’s war cabinet remained paralysed as signs of instability in PM Netanyahu’s coalition grew, including over looming military conscription law requiring ultra-Orthodox Jews to serve. 

Israel-Hizbollah attacks escalated. Israel expanded attacks against Hizbollah deeper into Lebanese territory, highlighting risk of expanded war (see Lebanon).

Israel killed thousands more in Gaza, as over half a million faced famine, and threatened all-out Rafah attack that could decimate 1.5m there; Israel’s Ramadan restrictions could fuel violence in West Bank and beyond.

Israel targeted Gaza’s south, as aid restrictions increased risk of mass starvation. Israeli forces continued massive bombardment and operations across strip, bringing Palestinian death toll to over 30,000 as of 29 Feb. Israel expanded attacks on Rafah in south that hosts over half of strip’s population, vast majority of which is displaced. Even as Israeli military intelligence warned Hamas will remain intact as guerrilla group, war cabinet repeatedly insisted on large-scale ground offensive in Rafah to take out remaining Hamas battalions and 18 Feb said all-out offensive would commence if hostages were not released by Ramadan on 10 March; operation will likely be bloodbath, worsen already-catastrophic conditions and fuel further displacement, including potentially into Egypt (see Egypt). Israeli forces also battled Palestinian militants in Jabalya and Gaza city (north), Deir el Balah (centre) and Khan Younis (south), as rockets into Israel continued. Risk of mass starvation rose further, as aid inflow fell by half in Feb and UN reported 90% of population facing high level of acute food insecurity and almost 600,000 “one step away from famine”; report by U.S./UK universities 19 Feb estimated tens of thousands could die in next six months due to collapsed services. UN special rapporteur on right to food 27 Feb asserted Israel is intentionally starving Palestinians and declared “situation of genocide”.

Ceasefire negotiations continued. After PM Netanyahu 7 Feb rejected Hamas ceasefire proposal as “delusional”, Israel and Hamas late Feb continued negotiations via mediators, offering hope ceasefire could avert Rafah offensive and release hostages; Netanyahu vowed any ceasefire would merely delay Rafah invasion.

West Bank braced for heightened turmoil during Ramadan. Israel mulled restrictions on Muslim worshippers’ access to Al-Aqsa mosque complex in Jerusalem during Ramadan, which could inflame tensions across West Bank and connect arenas by provoking violent actions by Hizbollah/Palestinian factions in Lebanon. Israeli settler violence could escalate, fuelled in part by extremists’ fears that international community may recognise Palestinian state.

Israel-Hizbollah hostilities continued. Deadly cross-border strikes persisted, underscoring lingering risk of wider war (see Lebanon).

Israel intensified assault on southern Gaza amid widespread starvation and disease, as momentum built toward possible ceasefire; West Bank braced for further turmoil and risk of wider conflict with Hizbollah loomed.

War approached fifth month. Israel’s assault on Gaza, which passed its 100th day, displaced 85% of population and killed over 27,000 Palestinians; Israeli soldier death toll reached 218 as of 30 Jan, with 22 Jan marking Israel’s deadliest single day of war. Israel stepped up bombardment in Khan Younis city, including zones it declared “safe”, and indicated plans to expand operations to Rafah, which hosts huge proportion of 2mn displaced. Israel also signalled intent to control Philadelphi Corridor between Gaza and Egypt, fuelling tensions with Cairo who warned of “serious threat” to relations and raising risk of mass casualties or mass expulsion. Hamas continued ambush attacks and rocket fire, as reports late Jan suggested group had reconstituted in northern Gaza. Amid collapsing and besieged health services, starvation risks rose: after U.S. and other states suspended funding to relief organisation UNRWA, following allegations of staff involvement in 7 Oct attacks, UN special rapporteur on right to food 28 Jan said “famine is now inevitable”.

Hamas mulled latest ceasefire proposal; Israeli cabinet grew divided. Amid talks in Paris, Hamas 30 Jan said it was considering new ceasefire and hostage release proposal, signalling some diplomatic progress and fuelling hope of possible multi-stage truce. Public and international pressure mounted as Israel appeared no closer to achieving its two main objectives – destroying Hamas and liberating hostages – and war cabinet grew visibly conflicted over path forward: PM Netanyahu 18 Jan rejected two-state solution, openly contradicting Washington. International Court of Justice 26 Jan found it plausible Israel’s acts amount to genocide and ordered Israel to prevent committing/inciting genocide acts. 

Violence in West Bank continued. Israeli forces and settlers have killed 370 Palestinians since 7 Oct; Israeli air strike 7 Jan killed seven Palestinians in Jenin. Reports mid Jan indicated Israeli security agency Shin Bet had warned Palestinian Authority at risk of financial collapse and territory on brink of explosion of violence.

Israel-Hizbollah hostilities continued. Risk of expanded conflict on northern front grew (see Lebanon).

Israel resumed onslaught in Gaza, expanding operations in south as famine loomed, while violence in West Bank worsened; hostilities with Hizbollah escalated, highlighting regional conflict risks.

Israeli assault on Gaza intensified and expanded south, as risk of starvation spread. After seven-day humanitarian pause 1 Dec collapsed, Israel intensified ground operation in Gaza’s north and expanded in south, focusing on Khan Younis city and escalating bombardment, bringing Palestinian death toll since 7 Oct to over 22,000; clashes with Hamas and other militants killed at least 175 Israeli soldiers since start of ground offensive. Gaza authorities late Dec reported Israel had killed 106 Palestinian media workers, marking deadliest conflict for journalists globally. Israeli assault displaced 1.9m amid relentless bombing of hospitals, schools, mosques and churches. Notably, Israeli forces 12 Dec raided Kamal Adwan hospital in north, allegedly crushing dozens of patients and displaced persons with bulldozers; 16 Dec killed two women in Catholic church in Gaza city. Survivors alleged Israel summarily killed civilians, including at UN-run Shadia Abu Ghazala school and in Gaza city. Meanwhile, Human Rights Watch 18 Dec accused Israel of using starvation as war tactic. Multi-stakeholder global initiative Integrated Food Security Phase 21 Dec estimated Gaza population at imminent risk of famine. Internationally, U.S. shifted rhetoric, warning Israel against indiscriminate bombing despite continuing to block UN Security Council resolutions for ceasefire.

Talks on hostage exchange resumed. Israeli soldiers 15 Dec mistakenly killed three Israeli hostages in Gaza, increasing pressure on govt to restart hostage negotiations. Israel 19 Dec reportedly offered week-long pause and prisoner release in exchange for 40 hostages; Hamas rejected negotiations without end of bombardment. 

Conditions in West Bank continued deteriorating sharply. Since 7 Oct, Israeli forces and settlers killed over 319 Palestinians, with over 4,500 arrested amid ubiquitous drone strikes and raids. Notably, Israel 14 Dec launched 60-hour operation in Jenin, killing at least twelve.

Border clashes with Hizbollah intensified. Israel expanded targets to residential areas in southern Lebanon. Hizbollah 7 Dec killed Israeli civilian in first non-military casualty since 7 Oct (see Lebanon).

Qatar-brokered truce won pause in Israel’s war in Gaza amid humanitarian crisis, but efforts to extend deal may falter and see return to onslaught; West Bank violence escalated amid hostilities with Hizbollah.

First respite in Israel’s pummelling of Gaza, which killed over 15,000. Israel and Hamas 22 Nov agreed to Qatar-mediated four-day truce beginning 24 Nov that was extended until 30 Nov, pausing hostilities in Gaza to exchange over 100 women and children captured by Hamas with 240 Palestinian women and children detained in Israel; truce held but Israeli forces 24, 26 Nov reportedly killed three Palestinians in Gaza trying to move north. Ahead of pause, Israel escalated bombing campaign and broadened ground incursion, bringing Palestinian death toll to over 15,000, including 6,150 children, with at least 75 Israeli soldiers killed. Despite announcing “safe corridors” for civilians to leave north, Israel bombed evacuation routes and so-called “safe areas” in south, and 15-16 Nov dropped leaflets on eastern Khan Younis calling for evacuation ahead of potential operations that could commence after truce in Gaza’s south. In north, health infrastructure collapsed amid shortages and Israeli assault on hospitals; malnutrition and dehydration killed at least dozen, as UN warned disease could kill more than bombardment. Israel 15-24 Nov conducted ground operations inside al-Shifa hospital in Gaza city, making unverified claims that it contains Hamas command centre.

Conditions in West Bank continued to deteriorate sharply. Since 7 Oct, Israeli forces killed over 240 Palestinians and Israeli settlers – launching almost 300 attacks on properties and individuals – killed at least eight and forcibly displaced fifteen Palestinian communities. Palestinians killed seven Israelis; Hamas 30 Nov claimed gun attack in West Jerusalem that killed three. Palestinian armed groups began to reestablish in north and spread into Bethlehem, Hebron and Ramallah, clashing with Israeli forces; in Jenin, Israeli forces 9 Nov killed fourteen and 29 Nov killed four, including eight-year-old boy.

Border clashes with Hizbollah continued, underscoring risk of wider war. Cross-border attacks penetrated further into respective territories, killing civilians and risking spiral of escalation that could trigger all-out war. Israel-Hamas pause was upheld along Israel-Lebanon front late Nov (see Lebanon).

Hamas slaughtered 1,400 in unprecedented attack, triggering indiscriminate Israeli bombardment of Gaza that killed over 8,500 and set off humanitarian crisis; threat of regional war loomed large, as Qatari mediation offered slim hope for talks.

Hamas’s assault triggered full-scale war. Hamas 7 Oct launched multi-pronged offensive into southern Israel, killing around 1,400 Israelis and taking at least 200 hostages. Israeli PM Netanyahu 7 Oct declared Israel “at war” and 11 Oct formed emergency govt with opposition. Israel launched 6,000 airstrikes on Gaza in first six days after attack and thousands more since, killing over 8,500 Palestinians, including over 3,500 children, according to Gaza’s health ministry (as of 31 Oct). Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant 9 Oct announced “full siege” of Gaza Strip, cutting off electricity, food, medicine, and water; disease and starvation are poised to become serious additional threats to civilians. Israel 13 Oct ordered evacuation of northern and central Gaza Strip, displacing around 1.4m, and 27 Oct expanded ground operations; while it seems plausible Israel can occupy northern Gaza, how it will deal with Hamas forces in south is unclear; speculation Israel may seek to forcibly displace Gazans into Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula triggered fierce Egyptian opposition. Israeli airstrikes 31 Oct hit Jabalia refugee camp, killing dozens. Gaza-based militants fired daily rockets; Israel 31 Oct announced eleven soldiers killed during incursion. Qatari mediation secured release of four hostages, raising prospect indirect communication could release more captives and serve as basis for ceasefire talks. Netanyahu 30 Oct rejected ceasefire, saying “this is a time for war”.

In West Bank, Israeli forces and settlers killed scores of Palestinians. Israel 7 Oct imposed total closure on West Bank and East Jerusalem and reportedly arrested 1,500 Palestinians, while Israeli forces and settlers dramatically stepped up violence, killing at least 118 Palestinians, amid Palestinian protests across territory. In first in decades, Israeli airstrikes 19 and 22 Oct in West Bank killed over dozen.

Border clashes with Hizbollah raised risk of regional war. Near-daily border clashes between Hizbollah and Israeli forces killed dozens of Hizbollah fighters and at least eight Israeli soldiers, raising risk of war spreading to other fronts (see Lebanon).

Lethal Israeli raids and settler violence continued unabated across West Bank amid Palestinian attacks, Israel launched strikes in Gaza and Saudi Arabia signalled possible normalisation deal.

Israeli forces killed over dozen Palestinians. Israeli forces continued arrest raids across West Bank and killed at least 14 Palestinians. Notably, Israeli forces 19 Sept killed four Palestinians and injured 30 in Jenin, and 24 Sept killed two Palestinians in raid on Tulkarem city. Israeli soldier stationed on watchtower overlooking Al-‘Arroub refugee camp in Hebron 9 Sept opened fire on three children, killing one. Daily Israeli settler violence continued: notably, settlers 9 Sept assaulted shepherd in Jordan Valley and 16 Sept stabbed Palestinian in Hebron. Meanwhile, Palestinians continued attacks: 6 Sept injured one Israeli in stabbing in Jerusalem and shooting attack 13 Sept injured two Israelis in Huwara. Israel advanced home demolitions, mainly in East Jerusalem, bringing total to 261 in 2023.

Israeli forces staged attacks in Gaza. Israeli soldiers 13 Sept opened fire at Palestinians protesting at Gaza border in solidarity with prisoners in Israeli jails and marking eighteenth anniversary of Israel’s withdrawal from strip, killing seven and injuring over 25. Israeli forces 19 Sept killed Palestinian in Gaza and 15, 22, 23 Sept launched air attacks at alleged Hamas targets, while protestors continued activities until late month.

Saudi Arabia signalled progress on possible normalisation deal. Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman 20 Sept said normalisation with Israel was getting closer “every day” (see Saudi Arabia); Kingdom during Sept hosted first official Israeli delegation at UNESCO meeting and Israeli tourism minister, while Palestinian delegation also visited seeking measures on Palestinian statehood in any deal. First Saudi ambassador to Palestine 26 Sept presented credentials to PA President Abbas.

Regional tensions remained high with Syria and Iran. Syrian state media reported Israeli airstrike on Tartous city 13 Sept killed two soldiers. Israel 20 Sept struck two Syrian structures in Golan Heights; alleged Israeli drone next reportedly killed two near Syrian town Beit Jinn (see Syria). Defence Minister Yoav Gallant 11 Sept accused Iran of building airport in southern Lebanon as launchpad for attacks.

Israeli forces and settler attacks killed over a dozen Palestinians, as settler violence reached highest levels ever recorded and govt expanded settlement funding.

Israeli raids, settler violence and Palestinian gunmen roiled West Bank and Israel. Israeli military forces and settlers killed at least 18 Palestinians in Aug, while Palestinian attacks killed five Israelis. UN 4 Aug recorded 39% annual increase in settler attacks in first six months of 2023, highest since it began gathering data in 2006, while UN envoy 21 Aug said Palestinian casualties in 2023 have already surpassed 2022 figures, marking highest toll since 2005. Notably, Palestinian 1 Aug shot and injured six Israelis before being killed in Maale Adumim settlement. Israeli settlers 4 Aug killed Palestinian in Burqa village and 6 Aug killed Palestinian near Ramallah; Palestinian hours later killed Israeli security guard before being shot dead in Tel Aviv. Israeli forces 6 Aug killed three Palestinians near Jenin. Suspected Palestinian gunmen 19 Aug killed two Israelis in Huwara village. In rare clash, Palestinian security forces 30 Aug killed Palestinian in Tulkarem refugee camp.

Israel accelerated settlement building, Palestinian prisoners began hunger strike. Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich 15 Aug announced plans to allocate $180mn to West Bank settlements after freezing funds to Palestinian communities in Israel and East Jerusalem; Arab local councils 21 Aug held strike in protest and Smotrich 28 Aug said he would unblock funds. Meanwhile, Palestinian administrative detainees in Israeli prisons early Aug began open-ended hunger strike in protest of detention without charge or trial; issue could provoke retaliation if any prisoner dies. Hundreds of Arab citizens of Israel 23 Aug voiced anger at govt’s failure to curb wave of criminal violence.

In other important developments. Amid legitimacy crisis facing Palestinian Authority (PA), PA President Abbas 10 Aug fired 12 governors in West Bank and Gaza in apparent attempt to reclaim public confidence. Tens of thousands of Israelis 17-19 Aug continued protesting govt’s judicial overhaul in Tel Aviv. Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant 8 Aug threatened to “return Lebanon to the Stone Age (see Lebanon). Suspected Israeli airstrikes struck Syrian capital Damascus.

Israeli forces conducted largest raid on Jenin refugee camp since Second Intifada, parliament passed govt’s judicial overhaul despite massive protests, and tensions flared with Hizbollah.

Israeli forces killed a dozen Palestinians in Jenin raid amid West Bank volatility. Deadly violence continued across West Bank and Israel, killing at least 27 Palestinians and one Israeli during July. Notably, Israeli forces 3-5 July raided Jenin, claiming to target “terrorist infrastructure”, killing 12 Palestinians and one Israeli soldier (by friendly fire), injuring over 140, and displacing 500 families. In response, Gaza militants 5 July fired five rockets at Israel, prompting Israeli airstrikes in Gaza. Palestinian 4 July conducted car-ramming and stabbing attack in Tel Aviv, injuring at least seven before being killed. Hamas militant 6 July killed Israeli soldier near Kedumim settlement before being shot dead. Israeli forces 25 July killed three Palestinians in Nablus city and 27 July killed teenager during raid in Qalqilya. Israeli cabinet 9 July voted for economic measures to prevent Palestinian Authority’s (PA) collapse; Israeli forces 30 July again raided Jenin, arresting two Hamas members, indicating that Israel’s goal of having PA operate successfully there had so far failed.

Knesset passed bill limiting Supreme Court’s judicial authority. Knesset 24 July passed bill to remove Supreme Court’s ability to block govt decisions deemed “unreasonable”, while opposition boycotted vote and anti-govt protests and strikes against bill intensified, with thousands of military reservists threatening to boycott duty. Supreme Court 26 July said it would hear appeal against bill in Sept.

Israel and Hizbollah exchanged fire. After media late June reported Hizbollah had erected two tents housing armed militants in disputed Shebaa Farms area, Israel 6 July struck southern Lebanon with around 15 artillery shells in response to alleged rocket fire from Lebanon into northern Israel (see Lebanon). Adding to tensions, Israel early July began constructing fence around northern half of Ghajar town, located in occupied Lebanese territory, prompting Hizbollah’s condemnation.

In other important developments. Syrian state media 2, 19 July reported Israeli airstrikes on Homs and capital Damascus (see Syria). PM Netanyahu 17 July recognised Morocco’s sovereignty over Western Sahara (see Western Sahara).

Deadly Israeli military raids and armed Palestinian resistance continued in West Bank amid growing settler violence, while Israel expanded annexation policies and returned to judicial overhaul.

Israeli forces and Palestinian militants clashed heavily in West Bank. Israeli forces conducted over 500 raids that killed at least 19 Palestinians (bringing total killed this year to at least 165). Notably, rare house demolition by Israeli forces in Ramallah 7-8 June triggered clashes that injured at least 35. Underscoring dynamic in which growing Israeli raids in northern West Bank to address Israel-induced security vacuum in absence of Palestinian Authority (PA) has kindled greater Palestinian armed resistance, Israeli raid in Jenin 19 June sparked large-scale gunfight, killing seven Palestinians and wounding seven Israeli soldiers, as Israeli helicopters opened fire in first such engagement since Second Intifada; Israeli media reported remote-controlled IED may indicate Iranian support, while Netanyahu govt and settler leadership mulled extensive military operation. Israeli drone 21 June killed three in Jenin refugee camp. Militants in Jenin 26 June attempted to fire two rockets. Meanwhile, amid expanding settler violence, two Palestinian gunmen 20 June killed four Israeli settlers near Eli settlement outpost; around 400 settlers next day stormed Turmus Ayya village, killing a Palestinian.

Israel advanced de facto annexation and restarted judicial overhaul debate. Cabinet 18 June gave far-right Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, also minister in Defence Ministry, authority to bypass approval process to build settlements. Govt 18 June moved forward plans to authorise constructing over 4,500 new settlement units in West Bank. After freezing judicial overhaul in March, Knesset 25 June began debating bill to limit Supreme Court’s power; amid protests, PM Netanyahu 29 June claimed he dropped clause enabling parliament to overturn court’s rulings.

Violent crime flared in Israel, rare attack on Egyptian border killed three. Clashes reportedly linked to organised crime 8 June killed five in Arab-majority town Yafa an-Naseriyye in northern Israel; violent crime has killed over 100 Palestinian citizens of Israel in 2023 and risks further exacerbating existing tensions. In first deadly exchange along border in over decade, Egyptian police officer 3 June infiltrated Israel and shot dead three Israeli border guards (see Egypt).