CrisisWatch

Tracking Conflict Worldwide

CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.

Global Overview

Outlook for This Month June 2022

Conflict Risk Alerts

Resolution Opportunities

Trends for Last Month May 2022

Improved Situations

Conflict in Focus

Our monthly conflict tracker warns of four conflict risks and one conflict resolution opportunity in June.

  • As North Korea continued its provocative missile launches, the U.S. and South Korea issued warnings about the possibility of a nuclear test in the coming weeks, which would be the country’s first since 2017 and seventh to date.
     
  • Hostilities could further intensify and spread in Ukraine’s east as Russian forces seek to capture more towns and cities, fuelling yet more displacement. 
     
  • Colombia’s tight presidential run-off pitting leftist candidate Gustavo Petro and conservative Rodolfo Hernández could fuel post-electoral violence following voting day on 19 June.
     
  • The April truce agreed between Yemen’s warring parties largely held as Sanaa airport opened for its first commercial flight in six years. Yet, if the UN fails to extend the deal, set to expire on 2 June, hostilities could resume.


CrisisWatch also highlights deteriorations in nine countries in May.

  • Burkina Faso saw high levels of violence as jihadists killed over 50 people in one single attack and expanded hostilities into previously unaffected areas.
     
  • Multi-day fighting erupted along the Eritrea-Ethiopia border between Eritrean troops and Tigray forces.
     
  • Tensions rose in the Great Lakes region as DR Congo authorities designated the M23 armed group, which has recently reemerged in the country’s east, a terrorist organisation and accused Rwanda of backing it.
     
  • Anti-government protests in Tajikistan’s restive Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Region turned violent as security forces clashed with protestors, leaving at least nine dead.
     
  • Jihadist activity in Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula surged as Islamic State-affiliated militants launched their deadliest attack on the army in two years, killing a dozen soldiers.


Last, our conflict tracker welcomes one improvement in May.

  • After a fifteen-month delay, Somalia concluded a convoluted electoral process, paving the way for former President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud to become head of state following a peaceful transfer of power.


Aside from the scores of conflict situations we usually assess, we track notable developments in May in Benin, Brazil, Moldova, Rwanda and Togo.

CrisisWatch Digests

Our CrisisWatch Digests for EthiopiaLebanon and Somalia offer a monthly one-page snapshot of conflict-related country trends in a clear, accessible format, using a map of the region to pinpoint developments:

View the May 2022 CrisisWatch Digest on Ethiopia here.

View the May 2022 CrisisWatch Digest on Lebanon here.

View the May 2022 CrisisWatch Digest on Somalia here.

Brazil

Former President da Silva launched presidential bid, and President Bolsonaro ramped up attacks on judiciary and electoral system. As Oct presidential elections edged closer, former left-wing president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 7 May announced presidential campaign against incumbent president Jair Bolsonaro; speaking at “pre-launch” rally (official campaigning begins in August), he called on Brazilians to “build an alternative path to the incompetence and authoritarianism that govern us”. His announcement came amid growing fears that Bolsonaro, citing alleged flaws in electronic voting system, might not admit defeat, which could raise risk of violence. Poll by Quest consulting firm 11 May gave Lula clear lead over Bolsonaro. Amid ongoing feud between Bolsonaro and Supreme Court, president 17 May announced he was suing Justice Alexandre de Moraes, citing alleged “attacks on democracy, disrespect for the constitution and contempt for fundamental rights”; Moraes had previously repeatedly accused Bolsonaro of spreading fake news, notably around COVID-19; Supreme Court 18 May rejected complaint. In petition to UN, 80 jurists and legal researchers 18 May said Brazil’s democracy and independent judiciary were under threat. Meanwhile, police 24 May said raid to capture leaders of drug-trafficking organisation in Rio de Janeiro city’s north killed at least 23, second deadliest police raid in Brazil’s history. Video of 38-year-old black man asphyxiated in police car 26 May went viral, sparking outrage online and prompting some to take to streets in town of Umbaúba, northeastern state of Sergipe, to protest against police violence.

Colombia

Amid tense atmosphere, first round of presidential vote held; electoral violence could rise ahead of second round scheduled for 19 June. Colombians 29 May headed to polls amid tense electoral atmosphere. Leftist candidate Gustavo Petro won 40.32% of vote, falling short of 50% required to prevent second round; conservative candidate Rodolfo Hernández, who received 28.15%, will face Petro in run-off on 19 June. Attorney General’s Office same day processed 105 reports of possible electoral crimes and other disturbances. During election day, Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) dissidents detonated three explosive devices in Caquetá (south) and Guaviare (south east) departments; same day killed polling jury in rural area of Vista Hermosa municipality, Meta department (centre). Also on election day, clashes erupted between FARC dissidents and National Liberation Army (ELN) in Normandía village, Arauca department (north). Earlier in month, criminal organisation Gulf Clan 5 May declared four-day armed strike in response to extradition 4 May of leader Dario Antonio Usuga, known as Otoniel, to U.S. Group ordered residents in areas under its influence to stay inside and “cease all social, economic, educational and cultural activities”. Strike affected at least 178 municipalities across 11 departments of northern Colombia; major city centres such as Sincelejo and Montería effectively shut down, illustrating group’s widespread and largely uncontested presence. Govt responded slowly, sending additional troops to affected regions three days after strike began. Ministry of defence reported five security forces killed 4-8 May, civil society said three civilians were killed. Chocó department (along Pacific coast), was among worst affected areas during and after strike; UN 17 May reported at least 14,600 people under forced confinement in southern Chocó in early May. Meanwhile, transitional justice mechanisms suffered setbacks. Military’s appointee to Truth Commission 2 May resigned, alleging that forthcoming final report will be biased; credible sources indicated he may have been pressured by sections of security forces to resign. Otoniel’s extradition marked significant loss for process, as it cut short his testimony before Special Jurisdiction for Peace Court (established under 2016 peace deal between govt and FARC to handle cases deriving from conflict).

Venezuela