Commentary

The UN Secretary-General has encountered resistance to many of the ideas for strengthening international peace and security he laid out in a July policy brief. Achieving consensus on large-scale multilateral reform will be hard, but a summit in 2024 is a focus for limited innovation.

Surviving the impact of climate change and adapting to harsher new environments are collective tasks that need the cooperation of all countries, even Afghanistan under the outcast Taliban regime.

As war rages in Gaza, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict continues to escalate, causing grievous harm to civilians and threatening stability across the Middle East. Crisis Group experts offer a 360-degree view of how various capitals in the region view this crisis and their own interests therein.

مع استِعار الحرب في قطاع غزة، يستمر الصراع الإسرائيلي–الفلسطيني بالتصاعد، ويتسبب بأضرار جسيمة على المدنيين، ويهدد الاستقرار في الشرق الأوسط بأسره. يقدم خبراء مجموعة الأزمات بانوراما شاملة حول مواقف العواصم المختلفة في المنطقة تجاه هذه الأزمة ومصالحها الخاصة فيها.

Thus far, October’s exchanges of fire between Hizbollah and Israel have stayed within the sides’ red lines. Still, with an Israeli ground invasion of Gaza looming, risks are tremendous. A Gaza ceasefire, while improbable, is the only way to rule out a broader war.

حتى الآن، لا تزال تبادلات إطلاق النار بين حزب الله وإسرائيل في تشرين الأول/أكتوبر ضمن الخطوط الحمر للطرفين. لكن مع قرب احتمال حدوث غزو بري لقطاع غزة، فإن المخاطر كبيرة جداً. وفي حين أن وقفاً لإطلاق النار أمر غير محتمل، فإنه يبقى السبيل الوحيد لتجنب حرب أوسع.

Relations between Ankara and Brussels have been warming despite democratic backsliding in Türkiye. In this excerpt from the Watch List 2023 – Autumn Update, Crisis Group explains how the EU and its member states can deepen this trend, cooperating with Türkiye in areas of mutual interest.

Tunisia’s socio-economic woes could get worse if it defaults on its debt. In this excerpt from the Watch List 2023 – Autumn Update, Crisis Group advises the EU to encourage a revised loan deal with the IMF but to pressure Tunis on governance and human rights.

Les difficultés socio-économiques de la Tunisie pourraient s’aggraver en cas de défaut de paiement. Dans cet extrait de l'édition d’automne de la Watch List 2023, Crisis Group recommande à l’Union Européenne d’encourager un accord de prêt révisé avec le FMI, tout en faisant pression sur Tunis sur les questions de gouvernance et de droits humains.

The Rohingya refugee crisis in Bangladesh looks set to drag on indefinitely. Insecurity in the overcrowded camps is growing. In this excerpt from the Watch List 2023 – Autumn Update, Crisis Group urges Europe to keep providing humanitarian assistance and increase its intake of refugees.