The international order has been thrown into turmoil as the era of U.S. primacy fades and shifting power relations revive great power politics. Disruptive regional powers and a divided Security Council are hindering UN peacemaking. The changing nature of conflict, coupled with an increasingly complex geopolitical landscape, affect the capacity of regional organisations like the African Union to maintain peace and security. Today’s conflicts are seldom fought or solved without outside influence, and while multilateral diplomacy is under siege, it remains undefeated. In our work, we advocate at the global and regional levels for the importance of multilateralism in conflict prevention and resolution.
Crisis Group’s early-warning Watch List identifies up to ten countries and regions at risk of conflict or escalation of violence. In these situations, early action, driven or supported by the EU and its member states, could generate stronger prospects for peace. The Watch List 2020 includes a President’s Note and detailed conflict analyses on Bolivia, Burkina Faso, the Democratic Republic of Congo and the Great Lakes region, Ethiopia, the U.S.-Iranian impasse, ISIS returnees, Libya, Sri Lanka, Tunisia and Ukraine.
There is no doubt that Russia is much more actively engaged on African issues in the Security Council than was the case five years or 10 years ago.
The South Sudan peace process is at serious risk of derailing following the UNSC visit to Juba. The strategy to simply pressure on Nov 12 deadline has already failed. It’s time to pivot.
This is a case where the UN should aim to be ‘best supporting actor’ rather than the star, bringing economic expertise to back up the AU’s work on Sudan’s transition.
Trump likes to present himself as a peacemaker — he clearly isn't succeeding in that when it comes to dealing with Iran — so the Korean issue is the one that he will strongly emphasize.