Tracking Conflict Worldwide
Outlook for This Month November 2023
Conflict Risk Alerts
Trends for Last Month October 2023
Conflict in Focus
Our monthly conflict tracker highlights five conflict risk alerts and one resolution opportunity related to the outbreak of the Israel-Hamas war on 7 October following Hamas’s unprecedented attacks (see this month’s Conflict in Focus).
- In Israel-Palestine, Israel’s bombardment and ground operations could raze Gaza, kill thousands more Palestinians and compound the humanitarian catastrophe facing 2.3 million people. Qatari mediation offers a slim hope for talks.
- Israel’s Gaza campaign also risks igniting a regional conflagration. Deadly border clashes between Hizbollah and Israeli forces, which have killed dozens of militants and several Israeli soldiers, could open another front in Lebanon.
- The U.S. said dozens of attacks targeted its forces in Syria and Iraq. Iran-backed armed groups in both countries could escalate such strikes, as well as cross-border attacks into Israel from Syria.
- The Houthis in Yemen launched long-range missile and drone attacks targeting Israel and vowed more such strikes, which could further expand the Israel-Hamas war.
We also spotlight five other alerts in November in Africa and Asia. Notably:
- Military authorities could launch an offensive in northern Mali in the coming days or weeks to take control of the town of Kidal, a stronghold of the 2015 peace deal signatories.
- The Rapid Support Forces captured Sudan’s South Darfur state, marking a major turn in the war, and could seek to push forward in Darfur and Kordofan in the coming weeks.
- Election-related tensions grew further in Somalia’s Puntland state, raising the prospect of an armed confrontation between rival security forces in the lead-up to the polls planned for early 2024.
- In Myanmar, an ethnic Kokang armed group, alongside its allies, in Shan state in the north launched one of its largest offensives in years to retake lost territory, which may provoke further clashes with the regime in November.
CrisisWatch identified twelve deteriorations in October. Notably:
- Large-scale fighting between M23 rebels and government forces resumed in DR Congo’s North Kivu after six months of precarious calm, fuelling tensions with Rwanda. Meanwhile, the political climate remained heated ahead of the December elections.
- The ruling Awami League in Bangladesh intensified repression of the opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) ahead of the January 2024 elections, as clashes between opposition supporters and the police turned deadly.
- Our tracker also assessed two improved situations. In Colombia, the government struck a ceasefire agreement with a Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) dissident faction, while in Venezuela, the government and the opposition reached a deal to improve electoral conditions ahead of 2024 polls, leading to substantial U.S. sanctions relief.
Aside from the scores of conflict situations we regularly assess, we tracked significant developments in Benin, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Gabon, Guatemala, Jordan, Lesotho, Madagascar, Moldova, Nile Waters and Togo.