Tracking Conflict Worldwide
Global Overview
Outlook for This Month July 2010
Conflict Risk Alerts
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Resolution Opportunities
None
Trends for Last Month June 2010
Deteriorated Situations
Improved Situations
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Conflict in Focus
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Four actual or potential conflict situations around the world deteriorated and none improved in June 2010, according to the new issue of the International Crisis Group’s monthly bulletin CrisisWatch, released today.
CrisisWatch Digests
In Kyrgyzstan large-scale violence between ethnic Kyrgyz and Uzbeks tore through the south of the country. Over 200 people have been officially reported killed and hundreds of thousands displaced by the fighting, the immediate spark for which is not yet clear. The country’s provisional government was unable to control the situation and failed in its efforts to secure an international military intervention.
An uneasy calm has now descended over the area and the 27 June constitutional referendum was conducted peacefully. However, there remains significant potential for the violence to reignite unless effective security measures and a reconciliation process are promptly put in place.
Turkey’s Kurdish PKK insurgents intensified their attacks in the country after calling off their 14-month unilateral ceasefire in early June. The violence reached its peak in the middle of the month when at least 40 soldiers and militants were killed in clashes in the country’s south-east. The Turkish military responded with a land and air offensive against PKK bases in northern Iraq. The renewed clashes highlight the faltering of Prime Minister Erdogan’s Kurdish “opening” policy and represent a significant deterioration in the government’s relations with the Kurdish population.
In Burundi presidential elections took place amid escalating violence, with several people killed in a series of grenade attacks and shootings over the month. Opposition candidates boycotted the poll and labelled the re-election of President Nkurunziza – with over 90 per cent of the vote – a sham. With the opposition also set to boycott parliamentary polls scheduled for late July, growing tensions risk endangering Burundi’s fragile democracy and undermining progress made since the end of the country’s brutal civil war.
June also saw rising tensions in neighbouring Rwanda ahead of presidential elections planned for August. The government denies involvement in recent attacks on high-profile critics, including the shooting of a former army chief in South Africa and the murder of a journalist in Kigali. But the events point to an atmosphere of repression that appears to have deepened in recent months.
Burundi
28 June presidential election marred by violence before and after voting day, at least 5 killed in several grenade attacks and shootings across country. President Nkurunziza (CNDD-FDD) won with 91.6%; polls held despite opposition boycott and Nkurunziza being sole candidate. 77% voter turnout reported, EU observers “regretted” absence of multi-party competition but said people able to “exercise their right to vote”. Opposition dismissed vote as “masquerade”, said turnout closer to 30-40%. Opposition condemned police violence and govt banned demonstrations during UNSG Ban’s 9 June visit. Ban urged all parties to find consensus and participate in polls; AU Commission Chair Ping 25 June “concerned” by tensions, called for dialogue. Opposition 1 June formed new coalition (ADC) and called supporters to boycott polls. Govt expressed fear FNL president Rwasa, missing since 23 June, in Eastern Congo planning return to violence. Rwasa 30 June issued message saying he had fled because of “govt threats”. CNDD-FDD-linked Radio Rema allegedly broadcasted names of opposition members accused of “destabilising country”; local media, human rights groups 8 June lodged complaint against Rema with media authority.
Central African Republic
President Bozizé remained in office after late May mandate extension. In 10 June address Bozizé rejected calls for unity govt until polls; said committed to prompt elections, blamed postponements on opposition and international community. Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) 17 June proposed 24 Oct for first round of presidential and legislative elections. Bozizé yet to endorse new date by decree. Opposition leader Ziguélé said ready to participate in Oct vote if major obstacles including rebel disarmament, technical problems overcome. Local firm contracted to review voter roll reportedly held back lists 13 June demanding IEC settle outstanding payments. UNSC 28 June called for realistic elections schedule, stressed importance of DDR process. After early month skirmishes with army, rebel group CPJP 2 June announced intention to negotiate with govt.
Chad
8 rebel groups 5 June formed new coalition, MONASAP. Tunisian national Youssef Mahmoud appointed new MINURCAT chief 10 June. France 11 June confirmed €1.2mn support for 2011 polls. Voter registration closed 25 June; electoral commission said 80% of expected voters registered, oppositions claimed fraud and low mobilisation. British aid worker abducted in Abeche 6 June, freed 16 June. President Déby 22 June reiterated opposition to possible partition of Sudan.