CrisisWatch

Tracking Conflict Worldwide

CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.

Global Overview

Outlook for This Month July 2021

Conflict Risk Alerts

Resolution Opportunities

Trends for Last Month June 2021

Improved Situations

Conflict in Focus

CrisisWatch warns of one conflict risk in July. 

  • In Yemen, after intensifying their military campaign in Marib governorate in the past few weeks, the Huthis could soon launch an all-out offensive that might trigger mass displacement and cut off energy supplies.

Our monthly conflict tracker highlights deteriorations in nine countries and conflict areas in June.

  • The Taliban sustained their major offensive in Afghanistan, seizing more than 50 district centres, mostly in the north and north east, and killing hundreds of Afghan security forces personnel.
     
  • Tensions increased in Libya between rival armed coalitions, and the Islamic State launched its first attack since May 2020, killing six fighters aligned with Field Marshal Haftar. 
     
  • Suspected jihadists carried out their deadliest attack in Burkina Faso since 2015, killing 160 and displacing thousands.
     
  • Peru’s closely contested presidential poll fuelled tensions as right-wing supporters rejected the official results, amid calls for the military to intervene.
     
  • Violent anti-monarchy protests broke out in Eswatini as demonstrators clashed with security forces, reportedly leaving scores dead. 

We also noted two improvements. In Somalia, the federal government and member states agreed on a new schedule for the long-delayed elections, potentially paving the way for a resolution of the electoral crisis, while Somaliland successfully completed its first parliamentary elections in over fifteen years.

Aside from the 70+ conflict situations we regularly assess, we also tracked notable developments in: Brazil, Indonesia, Montenegro, Morocco and U.S.-Russia.

Israel/Palestine

Israeli forces launched wave of arrests inside Israel and suppressed Palestinian protests in West Bank amid attacks by settlers; ceasefire between Israel and Hamas faced strains. Following May deadly fighting between Israel and Gaza-based Palestinian factions that triggered widespread violence across Israel and West Bank, Israeli forces sought to restore security in what Palestinian activists claimed was attempt to suppress protests. Israel 3 June concluded operation that led to arrest of 2,142 citizens, 90% of them Palestinian. Israeli border police 5 June detained journalist Givara Budeiri, releasing her after four hours; International Press Institute director Barbara Trionfi same day slammed arrest. Israeli police 6 June detained twins Muna and Mohammed El-Kurd over their activism against removal of families from East Jerusalem neighbourhood of Sheikh Jarrah; police same day clashed with protesters outside station before Muna’s release. In Jerusalem, Israeli-run municipality 7 June issued demolition orders to residents of al-Bustan area in Silwan neighbourhood, giving some 1,500 Palestinian residents 21 days to evacuate and demolish their houses; court hearing on matter postponed until 7 Aug. Thousands of Israelis 15 June rallied in nationalist march around Jerusalem’s Old City chanting “death to Arabs”. While attempting to suppress protest, Israeli police injured over 30 Palestinian protesters. Citing marches, Hamas 15 June flew incendiary balloons into southern Israel; Israel 15-17 June struck Hamas military compounds in Gaza in first strikes since ceasefire, leaving no casualties. In Gaza, Egyptian delegation 3 June arrived to aid reconstruction plans. In West Bank, Israeli settlers 8 June shot and mutilated Palestinian man after setting fire to Palestinian-owned land in al-Rihiya village, south of Hebron city; settlers fired live bullets at Palestinians attempting to extinguish fire. Israeli forces 11 June shot and killed four Palestinian residents protesting illegal settler outpost in Beita town. Palestinian security forces 24 June killed prominent activist Nizar Banat, outspoken critic against Palestinian Authority’s (PA) security coordination with Israel, leading to protests throughout West Bank against PA, which police repressed. In Gaza, Egyptian delegation 3 June arrived to aid reconstruction plans. New Israeli govt led by ultra-nationalist Naftali Bennett 13 June sworn in following power-sharing agreement between eight opposition parties, ousting Benjamin Netanyahu as PM.

Lebanon

Political infighting continued to stall govt formation while Lebanese pound fell to record low amid worsening economic crisis. Amid ongoing stalemate over govt formation, President Aoun 2 June released statement criticising PM-designate Saad Hariri’s “continuous evading of responsibilities” that “constitutes a persistent violation of the constitution and national accord”; Hariri same day hit back stating presidency is held “hostage to the personal ambitions” of Jibran Bassil, Aoun’s son-in-law and leader of Christian group Free Patriotic Movement. Economic crisis and living conditions continued to deteriorate. Protesters 2 June blocked main roads in capital Beirut to protest economic situation after court previous day suspended Central Bank decree that allowed withdrawal at better rate than fixed exchange rate; suspension reversed next day. Lebanese pound 13 June hit low of 15,300 to dollar on black market, marking lowest rate since March. Workers 17 June held general strike to protest economic situation and political stalemate, accompanied by roadblocks in Beirut and other cities; Energy Minister Raymond Ghajar same day stated petrol subsidy is poised to end. Ministry of economy and trade 18 June raised price of subsidised bread for fifth time in one year. Lebanese pound 26 June dropped further to 18,000 to dollar, prompting new roadblocks and minor riots in Tripoli and Sidon cities as well as other locations. Energy ministry 29 June raised fuel prices. Meanwhile, international stakeholders maintained pressure. France 17 June convened virtual donor conference over concerns about pressure of economic crisis on Lebanese Armed Forces, with French defence ministry calling for “increased commitment and coordination from everyone”. EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell 19 June berated govt stalemate as putting country on edge of “financial collapse”, warning EU response could include targeted sanctions; Borrell next day pinned “strong mistrust” as root of crisis.

Syria