CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations ("standby monitoring") to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.
Our monthly conflict tracker highlights deteriorations in five countries in August.
We also noted political and security improvements in three locations.
Aside from the 70+ conflict situations we regularly assess, we tracked notable developments in: Brazil, Djibouti, Guatemala and the United Arab Emirates.
Jihadists stepped up attacks, inflicting heaviest monthly death toll on military since 2019 and leaving scores of civilians killed. Series of deadly jihadist attacks reported in Sahel region (north) near borders with Mali and Niger. In Oudalan province, suspected jihadist militants 4 Aug killed 30 people – 15 soldiers, four volunteers fighting alongside security forces (VDPs) and 11 civilians – in Dambam, Gubda and Tokabangou localities; ten militants also killed. Clashes between al-Qaeda-affiliated Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims (JNIM) and Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS) also continued in Oudalan, leaving ten militants killed in Déou department 15 Aug. In Seno province, VDPs 10 Aug clashed with suspected jihadist militants in Gorgadji department; five VDPs and 17 gunmen killed. In Soum province, jihadist combatants 18 Aug attacked military convoy escorting civilians near Boukouma village on Gorgadji-Arbinda axis, leaving 80 dead including 65 civilians; recent incidents in Soum reveal fragility of local non-aggression pact struck between govt and JNIM in late 2020. Rising insecurity also reported in Boucle du Mouhoun region (west). Suspected JNIM combatants 8 Aug ambushed military convoy in Toéni department, Sourou province, killing 12; attack may have come as retaliation for killing of JNIM leader Sidibe Ousmane and his spiritual guide Bande Amadou by defence forces in Kossi province previous day. Special anti-terrorism court in capital Ouagadougou 9-13 held first trials since its creation in 2017; 10 Aug sentenced two suspected members of JNIM-affiliated Ansarul Islam militants to 20 years in prison and next day sentenced suspected ISGS combatant to 21-year imprisonment. European Court of Human Rights 6 Aug temporarily suspended extradition from France of former President Compaoré's brother, François Compaoré, pending final decision; François Compaoré is wanted by Burkina Faso in connection with 1998 murder of journalist Norbert Zongo.
Authorities stepped up repression of political opponents amid tensions within ruling party over suspension of foreign mining operations. In south, ruling party CNDD-FDD youth wing Imbonerakure 1 Aug seized two members of main opposition party National Congress for Freedom (CNL) in Muhuta commune, Rumonge province. In Rutana province, Imbonerakure 11 Aug reportedly attacked CNL party representative Pierre Ndayisaba and his brother in Giharo commune; next day over 50 Imbonerakure brought Ndayisaba to police station; Ndayisaba later transferred to Rutana prison. Police 13 Aug arrested three CNL members in Kayogoro commune, Makamba province, and seized funds they were collecting for construction of party headquarters, before releasing them 16 Aug without returning funds. In north east, Imbonerakure 5 Aug reportedly vandalised CNL office in Ruhororo commune, Ngozi province; authorities same day detained two CNL members in Gitobe commune, Kirundo province, releasing them 14 Aug. In north west, residents in Cibitoke province’s Bukinanyana commune 13 Aug reported Imbonerakure night patrols amid concerns among local CNL members that ruling party is inciting youth wing to step up attacks against them; CNL activist also reportedly abducted 15-16 Aug by National Intelligence Services head, in Rugombo commune. In centre, intelligence officials 9 Aug detained three CNL members in Mwaro province’s Kayokwe commune, before releasing them 10 and 13 Aug. In Karusi province, Imbonerakure 28 Aug reportedly seized six CNL members in Shombo commune. Security forces 16 Aug arrested seven individuals, including one Rwandan, for allegedly collaborating with Kinyarwanda-speaking armed group in Mabayi commune, Citiboke province. Meanwhile, risk of instability within CNDD-FDD persisted over late June-early July suspension of all foreign mining operations pending ongoing renegotiation of mining contracts with state.
Violence continued between govt forces and separatists in Anglophone regions; in Far North, clashes over resources turned deadly and jihadists attacked govt positions. In North West (NW) region, amid food shortages due to separatist roadblocks, govt forces 17 Aug cleared roadblock in Mezam division, leaving three people killed. NGO Médecins Sans Frontières, whose NW activities govt suspended in Dec 2020 on accusations of alleged pro-separatist bias, 3 Aug withdrew all staff from region. Violent attacks throughout month continued. Notably, separatists 4 Aug detonated IED in Kumbo town, killing two soldiers; 7 Aug killed three civilians in NW regional capital Bamenda; another attack in Bamenda 22 Aug left NGO International Red Cross employee dead; separatists 23, 27 Aug killed two soldiers at Ntumbaw village and Oku area. Pro-govt vigilante group and govt forces 18-19 Aug meanwhile killed six separatists in Wum and Bafut towns. In South West region, separatists 16 Aug kidnapped 16 construction workers for not observing “ghost town Monday”; militia 20 Aug clashed with police in Buea town, leaving three dead; separatists 28-30 Aug killed several soldiers in Ndian division. Following announcement of alliance between Anglophone separatist group Ambazonia Governing Council and Nigerian separatist group Indigenous People of Biafra in April, Yaoundé and Abuja 26 Aug announced joint efforts against separatists in both countries. Meanwhile, in Far North’s Logone-et-Chari division, clashes between ethnic Musgum fishermen and Choa Arab herders 10 Aug left at least 32 dead and displaced 11,000 into neighbouring Chad. Also in Logone-et-Chari, Islamic State in West Africa Province 8 Aug killed three soldiers at military base in Sagme village; 15 Aug killed one soldier at army post in Makary town. Over 250 Boko Haram members throughout month surrendered to authorities in Far North’s Mayo-Sava division.
Govt forces and foreign allies faced renewed international scrutiny over alleged abuses while tensions persisted between govt and opposition. UN report 4 Aug said country’s human rights situation “alarming”, listing 526 incidents from July 2020 to June 2021 including extrajudicial executions, torture and sexual violence; over half of recorded incidents blamed on rebel Coalition of Patriots for Change (CPC), while armed forces and Russian security personnel responsible for 46% of recorded violations, including rising attacks on Muslim communities in Feb-June. Army, along with Russian security personnel, throughout month pursued military offensive against CPC, which continued to harass govt forces and civilians. Notably, in Ouham-Pendé prefecture, CPC combatants 5 Aug reportedly killed at least two Russian security personnel near Wouro Dolé village; army and Russian personnel 20 Aug attacked CPC positions in nearby Koui town, reportedly killing three civilians. In Ouaka prefecture, Russian personnel 12 Aug reportedly killed two combatants from Union for Peace in Central Africa (UPC) – which withdrew from CPC in April – in Bokolobo locality. Rwanda 3 Aug seconded 300 soldiers to UN peacekeeping force (MINUSCA) to help secure supply road between capital Bangui and Béloko town at border with Cameroon; additional 450 Rwandan soldiers expected by year’s end. Meanwhile, opposition 1 Aug criticised as biased President Touadéra’s late-July appointment of four govt ministers to committee tasked with setting up and running long-delayed political dialogue. Constitutional court 10 Aug stripped former National Assembly president, now opposition MP, Karim Meckassoua of his parliamentary seat for allegedly exhorting CPC to launch offensive against govt in Dec 2020; Meckassoua 15 Aug reportedly fled to DR Congo ahead of interrogation scheduled for next day; main opposition coalition COD-2020 24 Aug criticised court’s ruling, said Meckassoua should have been allowed to take part in national dialogue. Yearly World Bank report released 3 Aug warned CAR would enter economic recession in 2021 due to COVID-19 and post-electoral crises. Touadéra and Rwandan President Kagame 5 Aug signed four cooperation agreements, including in areas of defence and trade.
Disagreements over national dialogue persisted; intercommunal violence left dozens dead and Boko Haram attacked army positions. Transitional Military Council (CMT) showed signs of openness ahead of national dialogue scheduled for Nov-Dec. Notably, CMT head Mahamat Idriss Déby 10 Aug called on armed groups to join dialogue, with govt later clarifying “outstretched hand” to armed groups included Libya-based Chadian rebel group Front for Change and Concord in Chad (FACT); FACT 27 Aug said it was willing to take part in dialogue. PM Pahimi Padacké 13 Aug appointed 70 members of Organising Committee for National Dialogue (CODNI), including main opposition leader Saleh Kebzabo as deputy chairperson; Déby 17 Aug appointed 28 key figures of late President Déby’s regime, including 12 army generals, as members of technical committee on participation of politico-military leaders. Opposition and civil society continued to criticise national dialogue; opposition and civil society platform Wakit Tama mid-Aug refused to take up reserved seats in CODNI while coordinator of New Front for Change Yaya Dillo 17 Aug said political party will not participate in “sham dialogue”; opposition leader Felix Romadoumngar 19 Aug resigned from CODNI to lead wider opposition movement’s engagement in dialogue. Meanwhile, in central Hadjer Lamis province, farmer-herder clashes 7-8 Aug left at least 23 dead and at least 20 wounded in Kharadja village; UN humanitarian affairs agency 8 Aug revealed total of 24 incidents of intercommunal violence in Jan-July, with over 300 dead and 6,000 displaced. In Lake Chad province (west), Boko Haram attack 4 Aug left 26 soldiers killed in Tchoukoutalia area; in response, Mahamat Déby next day said soldiers’ death is “reminder of the security challenges” at border. N’Djamena 21 Aug announced recall of 600 out of 1,200 soldiers from G5 Sahel force operating in tri-border area between Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger citing “strategic redeployment” to better respond to jihadist threat. Former President Hissène Habré 24 Aug died in Senegal, where he was serving life sentence for atrocity crimes committed during 1982-1990 rule.
President Ouattara made new gestures of political appeasement, and former President Gbagbo took steps to regain control of his deeply divided party. In national address on occasion of Côte d’Ivoire’s independence anniversary, Ouattara 6 Aug said he would “support initiatives aiming at appeasement” and announced provisional release of 69 people detained in connection with Oct 2020 presidential election violence; also pardoned nine individuals convicted for alleged involvement in 2020 electoral violence, including former President Bédié’s Chief of Staff N’dri Kouadio Pierre Narcisse. Amid ongoing dispute between Gbagbo and his former PM Pascal Affi N’Guessan over control of Ivoirian Popular Front (FPI) political party, Gbagbo 9 Aug called on his FPI faction to prepare for “constitutive congress” to create new party; move, which aims to sideline N’Guessan, could presage Gbagbo’s presidential bid in 2025; N’Guessan same day said step was “dictated essentially by a thirst for power”.
Authorities extended state of siege amid ongoing violence in east; appointment process of electoral commission reached impasse. In North Kivu province’s Beni territory, armed group Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) 5 Aug reportedly killed eight in Mbingi village; 14 Aug reportedly killed at least 14 and injured nine in Kikingi village. Also in Beni, clashes between armed forces and ADF 22-23 Aug left at least nine civilians, one soldier and eight ADF dead in Katanga village; suspected ADF 27-28 Aug killed at least 19 in Kasanzi-Kithovo village; next day reportedly killed three in Oïcha. In Ituri province, suspected ADF fighters 2 Aug killed at least 16 civilians – who had been taken hostage weeks earlier – near Idohu village. Following U.S. designation of ADF as Foreign Terrorist Organization in March and Kinshasa’s first attendance to ministerial meeting of Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS in June, U.S. special forces 13 Aug arrived to support establishment of national counter-terrorism team and evaluate protection capabilities of Gramba and Virunga national parks in east; special forces 17 Aug reportedly deployed to Rumangabo base, Virunga park, North Kivu. MPs 17 Aug and Senate next day approved sixth extension of state of siege in east despite no improvement in security, and as provincial deputies, whose mandates were suspended, denounced shrinking political space and rising human rights violations under state of siege. President Tshisekedi 6 Aug appointed former rebel Tommy Tambwe Ushindi as coordinator of disarmament, demobilisation and reintegration programme. Appointment sparked outcry over Tambwe’s role in rebel movements in late 1990s and early 2000s; Nobel Peace Prize winner Denis Mukwege 11 Aug denounced move as encouraging “armed groups to wait their turn in the bush”. Meanwhile, formation of electoral commission stalled as National Assembly’s mid-Aug deadline to submit approved list of candidates to Tshisekedi passed without progress. Notably, eight religious groups mandated to appoint commission’s chair mid-Aug failed to reach consensus; six of them, which are smaller groups, 19 Aug named Tshisekedi-ally and electoral expert Denis Kadima as candidate, which remaining two groups, including influential Catholic Church, immediately opposed.
Deadly intercommunal violence broke out in capital. Clashes 1 Aug erupted between ethnic Afar and Issa communities in capital Djibouti city, leaving at least three dead. Rights group Djiboutian Human Rights League (LDDH) 12 Aug alleged police officers took part in clashes, denounced “coordinated attack” by police against Afar civilians.
Amid spreading violence in Ethiopia’s north, govt faced renewed scrutiny over troops’ presence in Tigray. As fighting expanded across Ethiopia’s north, Tigray region’s leadership throughout month claimed Eritrean forces had moved into western Tigray and neighbouring Afar region. U.S. Sec State Antony Blinken and Sudanese PM Abdalla Hamdok 4 Aug discussed alleged movements of Eritrean troops in Ethiopia “which impact regional stability”. UN refugee agency (UNHCR) 10 Aug said it had regained access to Mai Aini and Adi Harush refugee camps in Tigray; both camps had been cut off from humanitarian aid since early July due to violent clashes in area, amid reports of killings and other human rights violations against Eritrean refugees by Tigray regional forces; UNHCR also called on all parties to allow safe passage of refugees to new camp in Ethiopia’s Amhara region. U.S. Treasury Dept 23 Aug imposed sanctions on Eritrean Defence Forces Chief of Staff Gen Filipos Woldeyohannes over Eritrean troops’ alleged role in extrajudicial executions, rapes and torture in Tigray; Blinken same day warned “large numbers” of Eritrean troops had re-entered Tigray after reportedly withdrawing in June.
Amid spreading conflict across Ethiopia’s north, Tigrayan forces and federal govt intensified war rhetoric and took steps to mobilise reinforcements; clashes in centre left hundreds dead. Tigrayan forces continued to launch offensives into Amhara and Afar regions, seizing several towns and prompting thousands to flee. Federal govt 6 Aug threatened to “deploy the entire defensive capability of the state” if offensives continued, 10 Aug urged “all capable” citizens to join military effort. Tigrayan forces next day formed alliance with insurgent group Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) with stated aim of toppling federal govt. Rights abuses reported on all sides. Notably, Afar authorities accused Tigrayan forces of launching attack on displaced civilians, reportedly killing over 200, in Galicoma area 5 Aug; NGO Amnesty International 11 Aug accused Ethiopian, Eritrean troops and allied militias of using sexual violence “to terrorise, degrade, and humiliate” ethnic Tigrayans. NGO Human Rights Watch 18 Aug also reported authorities conducted arbitrary detentions and forcibly disappeared at least 23 ethnic Tigrayans, mostly on apparent basis of ethnicity, in capital Addis Ababa in June-July. U.S. development agency (USAID) 19 Aug said govt’s obstruction of humanitarian aid and personnel creates looming food aid shortages in Tigray region; govt next day denied accusations. USAID 31 Aug accused Tigrayan forces of looting its warehouses in Amhara region in previous weeks. U.S. 23 Aug warned “large numbers” of Eritrean troops had re-entered Tigray after reportedly withdrawing in June (see Eritrea). Federal govt 5 Aug rejected Sudan’s offer to mediate Tigray conflict, prompting Khartoum to recall its ambassador 8 Aug (see Sudan). In west, Benishangul-Gumuz regional govt 14 Aug said its forces had killed 170 armed “anti-peace elements” allied to Tigrayan forces who had reportedly entered from Sudan, mid-Aug also arrested 32 suspected Tigrayan forces “operatives” after they reportedly crossed from Sudan in alleged attempt to destabilise region. Meanwhile, in Oromia regional state in centre, govt-appointed Human Rights Commission 26 Aug said OLA insurgents had killed some 150 ethnic Amhara in Gida Kiremu district 18 Aug, prompting retaliatory attacks which left 60 dead next day; OLA immediately denied it had targeted civilians, said Amhara militias initiated clashes.
Authorities continued to stifle dissent, and renewed clashes erupted between gold miners and locals in north west. Authorities 9 Aug ordered main opposition party Union of Democratic Forces of Guinea prominent leader Abdoulaye Bah to return to prison for allegedly violating conditions of his release after he questioned President Condé’s legitimacy on social media; Bah, who was detained in Nov 2020 on public disorder charges, had been released on parole in July. Police 15 Aug arrested Bogola Haba, from opposition coalition National Alliance for Change and Democracy, over civil disobedience accusations. Judicial authorities 25 Aug announced international arrest warrant against Sékou Koundourou, senior figure of civil society platform National Front for the Defence of the Constitution, for alleged involvement in violence during popular protests against Condé in March-Oct 2020. In north west, clashes between gold miners and local population 10 Aug left at least one dead in Kounsitel town, Boké region; tensions have been running high since discovery of gold mine in area earlier this year.
Political jockeying continued ahead of 2022 general election, and diplomatic engagement with Somalia deepened further. Tensions between Deputy President William Ruto and President Kenyatta persisted ahead of general elections. Notably, Kenyatta 23 Aug asked Ruto to do “the honourable thing” and resign, accusing him of claiming credit for govt action and at the same time criticising it; Ruto next day dismissed call. Opposition leader Raila Odinga, Kenyatta’s de facto ally, 27 Aug reiterated call on Ruto to be “principled” and resign. Earlier in month, immigration officers 2 Aug prevented Ruto from travelling to Uganda, which he said was attempt by ruling Jubilee Party and govt to humiliate him; interior ministry 5 Aug denied any involvement. Amid infighting, One Kenya Alliance (OKA), formed by Kenyatta in March with four opposition parties, 17 Aug failed to agree on common presidential candidate for 2022 election and ruled out solely supporting Odinga. Court of Appeal 20 Aug upheld High Court’s ruling in May that attempt by Kenyatta and Odinga to amend constitution was illegal. In Mombasa county in south, police 11 Aug detained three individuals on suspicion of being members of terrorist group with networks in Uganda, Kenya, Somalia and Egypt. Following months-long tensions, Kenya and Somalia 8 Aug agreed to strengthen trade, security and diplomatic ties and 10 Aug to “reset relations”.
Violence in north and centre showed jihadist groups’ sustained capacity to inflict considerable damage; govt’s action plan sparked concern over transition timeline. In Gao region (north), suspected Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS) militants 8 Aug simultaneously raided several villages in Ansongo district, killing at least 51 civilians, mostly women and children. In Ménaka region (east), explosive device 15 Aug killed three Malian soldiers near Ménaka airport. In Mopti region (centre), suspected al-Qaeda-linked Group to Support Islam and Muslims (JNIM)-affiliated Katiba Macina militants 11 Aug clashed with Bambara “Donso” militiamen in Ténenkou district, leaving at least five Donso dead. Also in Mopti, unidentified gunmen 19 Aug ambushed army convoy on Nokora-Boni axis, Douentza district, killing at least 15 soldiers. In Ségou region (also centre), six villagers died due to lack of medical care after alleged Katiba Macina militants 3 July imposed blockade around Songo village in Niono district; situation could jeopardise truce agreed between Katiba Macina and Donso in Niono district in April 2021. National Transitional Council (CNT) 2 Aug adopted interim govt’s action plan for 2021-2022; priorities include improving security situation, carrying out political and institutional reforms, organising “transparent, credible, and inclusive” presidential and legislative elections in Feb-March 2022 and adopting social stability pact; some CNT members voiced concerns plan might be too ambitious given tight implementation timeframe, while several political parties including former President Keïta’s Rally for Mali expressed fear that plan could provide alibi for extension of transition period. Authorities 25 Aug arrested former PM Boubeye Maïga and former Economy Minister Bouaré Fily Sissoko over corruption and other allegations. Transition monitoring committee next day announced release of former Interim President Bah N’Daw and PM Moctar Ouane, who had been under house arrest since Assimi Goïta’s second coup in May.
Islamist militants faced major setback as joint Mozambican and Rwandan forces regained control of strategic Mocìmboa da Praia town and other key locations. In far north Cabo Delgado province, joint Mozambican and Rwandan forces early Aug launched large-scale offensive in Mocìmboa da Praia district, with intense fighting reported notably in and around Awasse and Mocìmboa da Praia towns 2-4 Aug. Mozambican and Rwandan defence ministries 8 Aug announced joint forces had regained full control of Mocìmboa da Praia town, under militant control since Aug 2020 and site of militants’ first attack in Cabo Delgado in Oct 2017. In following days, joint forces reopened Mocìmboa da Praia-Awasse road and pursued militants into thick forests around Mbau village, 50km south west of Mocìmboa da Praia, taking control of Mbau 20 Aug; 11 militants reportedly killed and some 100 hostages, mainly women and children, released. During their flight from Mocìmboa da Praia, Islamist militants 4-8 Aug reportedly attacked Mandimba, Chacamba, Nune and Quissama villages in neighbouring Nangade district; no casualty report available. Militants 16-20 Aug clashed with govt forces in Nangade district, notably in Litingina and Samora Machel villages; one civilian reportedly killed. In Macomia district, govt forces 10 Aug mistakenly killed two civilians in Mucojo area; militants 24 Aug killed ten fishermen in same area. In Muidumbe district, joint forces 27 Aug reportedly dislodged militants from their base near district capital Namacunde. U.S. 6 Aug put Bonomade Machude Omar, alleged “senior commander and lead coordinator” of Islamic State in Cabo Delgado province, on terrorist list. Southern Africa’s regional bloc SADC Standby Force in Mozambique formally launched 9 Aug; force will initially consist of 738 soldiers and 19 civilian experts in Cabo Delgado, far from 3,000 troops recommended by SADC technical mission in April. Meanwhile, some 900 former armed opposition Renamo forces 10 Aug claimed they had not received allowances – mandated under Disarmament, Demobilisation and Reintegration process – for six months; Renamo opposition party leader Ossufo Momade 16 Aug called on govt and international partners to resolve situation. Nine high-ranking officers of Renamo Military Junta, Renamo armed dissident faction, demobilised 17 Aug in Sofala province (centre).
Jihadist violence against civilians and military continued in south. In Tillabery region (south west), suspected jihadists continued to target civilians in Banibangou area (Ouallam department) near Malian border: interior ministry 11 Aug said unidentified gunmen 9 Aug killed 15 civilians in Banibangou area, and suspected Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS) combatants 16 Aug stormed Darey-Dey village, killing 37 civilians. Meanwhile, suspected ISGS combatants launched their first attack in Maradi region (south), killing two National Guard troops on Dakoro-Tessaoua axis 17 Aug; incident could indicate group’s intention to expand eastward. NGO Human Rights Watch 11 Aug reported recent upsurge in atrocities by jihadist groups in western Niger, with 420 civilians killed in Tillabery and Tahoua regions since Jan 2021, called for “early warning networks” and “committees composed of civilians, security forces, and civil society groups to identify and respond to urgent protection needs”. In Diffa region (south east), hundreds of Boko Haram militants overnight 24-25 Aug attacked military post in Baroua town, killing 16 soldiers and wounding nine more; attack is blow to President Bazoum’s plan to relocate 130,000 displaced people to Diffa in coming months. Amid insecurity, govt 2 Aug extended state of emergency in Diffa region, as well as in several departments of Tahoua and Tillabery regions. U.S. Under Sec State for Political Affairs Victoria Nuland 5 Aug visited capital Niamey, showing commitment to bolstering U.S. ties with Niger as country due to play more important role in region’s security architecture.
Hundreds of jihadists surrendered amid continued attacks in north east, while criminal, intercommunal and separatist violence persisted in other regions. In Borno state (north east), Islamic State in West Africa Province (ISWAP) killed at least six troops in three attacks 7-14 Aug; 30 Aug attacked Rann and Ajiri towns leaving at least 17 people dead. Army 10 Aug said 1,000 jihadists had recently laid down their arms; series of surrenders likely resulting from May killing of Boko Haram faction (JAS) leader Abubakar Shekau and subsequent clashes between ISWAP and remaining JAS elements when latter refused to join ISWAP. Armed groups continued to launch attacks in north west. In Zamfara state, armed group 15 Aug stormed public college in Bakura town, killing three and kidnapping 19; armed group same day attacked Randa village in Maru area, killing 13 and abducting over 30. In Kaduna state, armed groups 3 Aug killed 25 in four villages in Kauru area, 22 Aug killed at least nine in Zangon Kataf area. In Sokoto state, armed group 14 Aug killed nine in three villages in Goronyo area. Military reported over 200 armed group members killed 2-15 Aug in air and ground operations in Niger and Zamfara states. Intercommunal and herder-farmer violence flared in north central zone, notably Plateau state. Attacks by suspected herder-aligned gunmen on ethnic Irigwe villages in Bassa area 31 July-1 Aug killed at least 17; suspected Irigwe militia 14 Aug killed at least 22 Fulani Muslims near state capital Jos; gunmen 22 Aug killed at least 44 people in Yelwa Zangam village, Plateau state, and Guma area, Benue state. In south east, violence pitting security forces against suspected members of outlawed separatist group Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB) rose again. In Imo state, gunmen 5 and 13 Aug attacked police stations in Orlu and Izombe towns, killing at least three officers; 16 Aug ambushed convoy transporting petroleum industry workers, killing seven; police blamed separatists, but IPOB denied involvement. NGO Amnesty International 5 Aug reported security forces carried out numerous abuses, including unlawful killings, arbitrary arrests and torture, in their response to violence in south east in Jan-June.
Efforts to resolve water dispute between Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan remained at standstill. Sudanese Irrigation Minister Yasir Abbas 24 Aug said Addis Ababa’s filling of Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) in July had no effect on year’s flood but “lack of information” forced Khartoum to take precautions with significant economic and social costs. Ethiopian FM Demeke Mekonnen 26 Aug called on UN Security Council members to reject draft resolution on GERD submitted by Tunisia in July, which called for legally binding agreement between three parties; reiterated such resolution would undermine efforts to resume negotiations with Egypt and Sudan under African Union auspices.
Electoral cycle remained behind schedule while Al-Shabaab attacks and counter-offensives continued. South West, Puntland and Galmudug states early to mid-Aug held delayed Senate elections, after electoral cycle kicked off in Jubaland 29 July; elections in Hirshabelle and Somaliland yet to start; only 29 out of 54 senators chosen by month’s end. Electoral process continued to face several hurdles; notably, pro and anti-federal govt supporters continued to spar for control of Somaliland process; bloc of 15 presidential candidates 23 Aug rejected new election procedures agreed by federal govt and member states previous day, arguing process gives state leaders too much power in selecting electoral delegates tasked with appointing lower house MPs; candidates and state leaders 24 Aug formed technical committee to resolve disagreement. Relations between President Farmajo and PM Roble soured; notably, in apparent bid to undermine Roble’s 10 Aug visit to neighbouring Kenya, Farmajo 6 Aug issued decree barring govt from entering new economic, political and security agreements with foreign countries during electoral period, which Roble 8 Aug dismissed. Meanwhile, Al-Shabaab continued to launch deadly attacks. Notably, in capital Mogadishu, suicide bombing 19 Aug killed at least two; in Lower Shabelle region, security forces 20 Aug reportedly repelled two attacks on Sabiid and Anole districts, killing 60 militants. Militants launched offensives in Galmudug state’s Mudug region, killing eight civilians near Baladweyne town 10 Aug and at least two civilians and four soldiers in Amara town 24 Aug; latter attack reportedly prompted same day U.S. airstrike in Galmudug which allegedly killed at least 90 militants; Galmudug authorities 28 Aug denied Al-Shabaab took over several areas, including Amara and Bacadweyne towns, after govt forces withdrew. Armed forces 16 Aug claimed to have killed over 250 militants across country in previous weeks. AU mission in Somalia (AMISOM) 21 Aug said it was investigating reports that its troops were responsible for death of seven civilians in Lower Shabelle region 10 Aug; PM Roble same day ordered probe into killings. In Bari region, suspected Islamic State - Somalia militants 18 Aug reportedly temporarily seized Balidhidin town, killing mayor and several civilians.
Opposition coalition secured speaker’s position in parliament’s lower house following tight vote. Parliament’s lower house 3 Aug elected opposition coalition MP Abdirisaq Ahmed Khalif as its new speaker by one vote, cementing opposition’s control over lower house despite President Bihi’s attempts to win over opposition MPs ahead of vote.
Split within VP Riek Machar’s movement sparked deadly violence; govt faced new calls to stand down, and implementation of transitional security arrangements remained stalled. Military leaders from a rural headquarters of Sudan People’s Liberation Movement/Army-In Opposition (SPLM/A-IO) 3 Aug claimed to have ousted Machar as movement leader over alleged failure to represent group’s interests, appointed Simon Gatwech Dual as interim leader. SPLM/A-IO forces loyal to Machar and Dual’s splinter group 7 Aug clashed in Magenis area, Upper Nile state, reportedly leaving dozens killed; 17 Aug reportedly clashed again in same area. Few SPLM-A/IO commanders elsewhere publicly backed Dual; SPLM/A-IO deputy chairman and Mining Minister Henry Odwar 11 Aug however resigned from govt, next day said he supported Dual. Meanwhile, following months-long delay, Transitional National Legislative Assembly sworn in 2 Aug, paving way for implementing key steps of peace process including constitutional review and electoral preparation. Intergovernmental Authority for Development chairperson, Sudanese PM Abdallah Hamdok, 19-20 Aug failed to broker agreement between President Kiir and Machar on share of signatory groups in unified national army, with Kiir reportedly demanding 60% of recruits be drawn from his forces. After coalition of civil society groups late July called for country’s leadership to resign and mid-Aug called for countrywide anti-govt protests 30 Aug, govt deployed military and police forces in capital Juba, arrested several activists, shut down internet and threatened to use live bullets; streets 30 Aug remained quiet. Kiir 18 Aug accused members of coalition of non-signatory rebel groups South Sudan Opposition Movements Alliance (SSOMA) of carrying out “terror attacks”, after unidentified gunmen 16 Aug reportedly killed five people on Juba-Nimule road; SSOMA faction led by Thomas Cirillo, National Salvation Front, immediately denied responsibility; Kiir 30 Aug suspended govt’s participation in Rome peace talks with SSOMA, said negotiations would resume when SSOMA “cease killing innocent people”. Intercommunal violence persisted mainly in centre and south: 31 people killed 15-16 Aug in Tonj East county, Warrap state; seven dead 3-4 Aug in Terekeka county, Central Equatoria state; and about 20 killed and over 20,000 displaced late July-late Aug in Western Equatoria state.
Intercommunal violence persisted in west, govt made progress in implementation of Oct 2020 peace deal, and tensions with Ethiopia continued to run high. In North Darfur state, unidentified gunmen 30 July-10 Aug killed four people in separate attacks in Tawila and Kushna areas, reportedly over disputed agricultural lands; 6 Aug reportedly ambushed members of former rebel group Gathering of Sudan Liberation Forces, brought into govt forces by last Oct’s Juba Peace Agreement and allegedly sent to secure area, killing seven; Sovereign Council next day sent fact-finding committee to investigate violence. Also in North Darfur, cattle raid 25 Aug reportedly left two dead in Kutum locality. Sudan Liberation Movement/Army faction leader Minni Minnawi sworn in 10 Aug as governor of Darfur region in line with Oct 2020 peace deal; Sovereign Council head Abdel Fattah al-Burhan same day pledged peace deal signatories would immediately start forming joint force to protect civilians in Darfur. Families of victims of former President Bashir’s regime and 2019 uprising 4 Aug organised sit-ins in capital Khartoum, demanding authorities purge public prosecution and judiciary from Bashir’s supporters; notably, sit-inners accused interim Attorney General Mubarak Mahmoud of foot-dragging on investigations. Court in North Kordofan state 5 Aug sentenced six members of paramilitary Rapid Support Forces to death for killing six civilians during 2019 protest. Ethiopia 5 Aug rejected Sudan’s offer earlier that day to mediate conflict in Ethiopia’s Tigray region in its capacity as current chair of regional bloc Intergovernmental Authority on Development, saying Khartoum was “not a credible party”; refusal reportedly prompted Sudan to recall its ambassador to Ethiopia 8 Aug. PM Hamdok and al-Burhan 16 Aug visited disputed al-Fashaga zone at border with Ethiopia; Hamdok said Sudan would not make any concessions on country’s territorial integrity. Govt 23 Aug said UN had acceded to its April request that Ethiopian soldiers part of UN peacekeeping force in disputed Abyei area at border with South Sudan be replaced.
Deadly gunfire erupted in economic capital Dar es Salaam, court case against opposition leader sparked tensions, and govt suspended newspaper. Unidentified gunman 25 Aug killed three police officers and one private security guard near French embassy in Dar es Salaam before being shot dead; six other people injured in incident. Police same day said attack could be linked to jihadist violence in neighbouring Mozambique. Earlier in month, police 5-6 Aug reportedly arrested several members of main opposition party Chadema during gathering at Dar es Salaam court in support of party chairperson Freeman Mbowe, currently facing terrorism charges. Meanwhile, govt 11 Aug temporarily suspended local newspaper Uhuru, owned by ruling Chama cha Mapinduzi party; Uhuru same day had alleged that President Suluhu Hassan would not run for president in 2025, which govt denied.
Clampdown on civil society intensified, security forces foiled suicide bomb attack, and unidentified assailants killed dozens in south. Govt 20 Aug suspended 54 NGOs for alleged non-compliance with laws and regulations; 15 face indefinite suspension, including prominent rights group Chapter Four, which immediately denied any “unlawful conduct”. Security forces 26 Aug reportedly arrested individual in northern Pader town on suspicions of planning suicide bombing at funeral of top police and army commander Paul Lokech next day; President Museveni 27 Aug blamed rebel group Allied Democratic Forces (ADF). In south, local authorities 27 Aug said unidentified assailants had killed 21 people with machetes since 22 July in Masaka and Lwengo districts; same day announced 38 suspects arrested. Museveni 3 Aug met king of powerful Baganda tribe Ronald Muwenda Mutebi in capital Kampala after govt announced plan to amend Buganda tribal kingdom’s land tenure system; reform plan allegedly part of Museveni’s attempt to weaken kingdom and bring Baganda people under his control after they failed to vote for him in last presidential election. Tensions ran high in Karamoja region (north east) over illegal guns, as forceful disarmament of ethnic Karimojong herders launched mid-July continued; defence forces 16 Aug said operation had led to 322 arrests so far.
Despite heightened political tensions in lead-up to 12 Aug polls, country witnessed peaceful transfer of power, with opposition leader Hakainde Hichilema sworn in as president. Tensions ran high ahead of presidential and parliamentary elections pitting incumbent President Edgar Lungu’s Patriotic Front (PF) against opposition candidate Hakainde Hichilema’s United Party for National Development (UPND): Lungu 1 Aug announced deployment of military to curb violence following late-July killing of at least two PF supporters; police 4 Aug said seven suspects arrested for murders. U.S. chargé d’affaires in capital Lusaka 9 Aug condemned voter intimidation and threatened to impose travel bans, visa restrictions and financial sanctions on individuals promoting violence and undermining electoral process. Hichilema 11 Aug claimed UPND was barred from campaigning in key Copperbelt province for second time that week. Elections held next day with high voter turnout of nearly 71% amid social media restrictions, internet shutdowns and reports of violence in several provinces. Notably, local PF leader and brother of another PF leader reportedly killed on polling day in North-Western province while police confirmed that unknown attacker(s) stabbed former Lusaka Mayor Miles Sampa in Lusaka; Lungu blamed UPND for electoral violence while UPND decried comments as “distraction tactic”. High Court 13 Aug ordered restoration of internet. With polls indicating Hichilema leading, Lungu 14 Aug called for nullification of results saying elections were “not free and fair”; five opposition leaders immediately challenged statement urging Lungu to concede defeat. Head of African Union election observer mission same day said voting was “peaceful, transparent” while European Union observers alleged campaign conditions favoured incumbent. Electoral Commission 16 Aug proclaimed Hichilema winner; Lungu same day conceded defeat in country’s third peaceful transition of power. Hichilema sworn in 24 Aug. Hichilema 29 Aug appointed new military chiefs and replaced all police commissioners, promising to end repression.
Authorities continued to intimidate and threaten opposition and civil society. In reference to Harare provincial authorities’ directive, issued in July, requiring NGOs to submit workplans or cease operations, ruling party ZANU-PF Secretary for Administration Obert Mpofu 4 Aug backed “blitz” on NGOs, saying sector aims at “demonising” govt; High Court 13 Aug reserved judgement in case challenging directive. As govt pushes for controversial Patriotic Bill which seeks to criminalise support for U.S. sanctions on Zimbabwe, National Security Minister Owen Ncube mid-Aug said parliament would soon punish “misguided elements who campaign for sanctions and punishment…under the guise of human rights narrative”. Cabinet 31 Aug approved changes to law governing private voluntary organisations, notably prohibiting them from getting involved in politics, citing need to curb money laundering and financing of terrorism. Nelson Chamisa led-faction (MDC-A) of main opposition party 15 Aug congratulated Zambian president-elect, opposition leader Hakainde Hichilema, for winning 12 Aug election, praised “triumph for democracy in light of growing authoritarian consolidation” in region; Chamisa next day expressed hope that Zambia’s transition of power would “inspire” Zimbabwe ahead of 2023 general elections. In response, ruling ZANU-PF party days later accused MDC-A of “cardinal political immaturity”. President Mnangagwa’s spokesperson George Charamba 18 Aug said military would not allow Chamisa to “just rule”, suggesting ZANU-PF would not peacefully hand over power if electorally defeated. Meanwhile, govt 21 Aug said it will open talks about compensation for victims of Gukurahundi massacres in 1980s, during which security forces killed some 20,000 people, mostly ethnic Ndebele, as part of violent crackdown in Matabeleland region.
In rapid takeover, Taliban regained control over country, prompting fall of govt and ending 20-year U.S. occupation; uncertainty over new political order fuelled domestic and international security concerns. In dramatic shift, govt 15 Aug collapsed and Taliban gained control of most territory, including all border crossings and major urban centres – with notable exception of Panjshir Valley province (north). As Taliban reached capital Kabul, President Ghani 15 Aug fled abroad, along with many other govt officials. Govt’s fall prompted mass exodus of Afghans fearing Taliban retaliation, notably causing chaos at Hamid Karzai International Airport; two bombs 26 Aug exploded outside Kabul airport, reportedly killing as many as 200 Afghans and 13 U.S. service members; Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISIS-K) claimed responsibility. Following Taliban’s takeover, U.S. mid-Aug froze Afghanistan’s central bank reserves in U.S. while International Monetary Fund and World Bank suspended payments to country; UN and humanitarian organisations called for continued assistance to country amid dire humanitarian crisis. Regional and international partners to Afghanistan had yet to announce positions on sanctions, financial aid and recognition of new govt by month’s end, waiting for Taliban to make meaningful compromises in new political order. Taliban’s rapid advances in early Aug partly due to local ‘surrender deals’ which granted safe passage to security forces in return for weapons and district centres as insurgents late July to mid-Aug launched simultaneous attacks on provincial capitals in south, east and north. Following initial hearty resistance, particularly in Helmand province (south), Kandahar city (south) and Herat province (west), insurgents captured provincial capitals in lightly defended areas. Taliban 6 Aug held first provincial capital in Nimroz province (south west), gaining control of last remaining border crossing to Iran under govt oversight; 7 Aug captured capital of Jawzjan province (north); 9 Aug captured provinces of Sar-e Pul (north) and Kunduz (north), second largest city in north; 12 Aug captured Ghazni (centre), Kandahar (south), Herat (west) and Badghis (north west). Loss of Herat and Kandahar, notably important cities, seemed to have broken security forces’ moral, who following day had abandoned provincial capitals of Helmand (south), Logar (east), Uruzgan (south), Zabul (south) and Ghor (centre) provinces.
Amid ongoing security concerns, authorities rejected U.S. plea to host Afghan refugees, and reiterated 1.1mn Rohingya refugees granted temporary shelter only. Security officials 16 Aug expressed concern that Taliban’s military victory in Afghanistan could galvanise homegrown militants; FM Momen next day said Bangladeshi terrorists, trained in Afghanistan, were “identified and uprooted” but govt would remain alert. Counter-terrorism police 11 Aug arrested three alleged New Jamaat-ul-Mujahideen Bangladesh militants in capital Dhaka; two alleged Ansar al-Islam militants 23 Aug in Khulna city; and one suspected Ansar al-Islam militant 25 Aug in Moulvibazar district. Meanwhile, FM Momen 2 Aug said Dhaka does not consider Rohingyas “refugees”, but “forcibly displaced Myanmar citizens”, will continue to prioritise repatriation. Rohingya refugees continued to flee Bhasan Char camp situated on flood-prone island; notably, after boat carrying around 40 Rohingyas capsized off Chittagong’s coast, authorities recovered 18 dead bodies, and local residents rescued 14 others who were then brought back to Bhasan Char. Rohingyas in Cox’s Bazar camps 25 Aug defied ban on outdoor protests to mark four years of asylum. Meanwhile, NGO Human Rights Watch 16 Aug highlighted credible evidence of routine enforced disappearances at hands of security forces over past decade, including about 86 people still missing. Police 18 Aug lodged cases against 155 Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) leaders and activists after security agencies prevented them from visiting party founder Ziaur Rahman’s grave in Dhaka previous day. Awami League (AL) activists 13 Aug allegedly killed opposition BNP leader and wounded two others in Noakhali district. Clash between paramilitary force responsible for internal security and AL leaders and activists 18 Aug left seven dead in Barisal district. Govt 11 Aug ended late-July COVID-19 lockdown despite rising COVID-19 infections and deaths; Health Minister Zahid Maleque next day warned that overcrowded hospitals could no longer accommodate COVID-19 patients.
Tensions continued between Japan and China over contested island chain in East China Sea amid ongoing Chinese maritime presence. Japan’s defence ministry 2 Aug announced plans to deploy medium-range anti-aircraft and air-ship missile units along with 500-600 troops to Ishigaki Island by end of 2022 in response to China’s growing military capabilities and presence. After China’s annual summer fishing ban in East China Sea ended 16 Aug – marking start of period in which waters likely to become more congested and tense – 40 Chinese fishing vessels were spotted 18 Aug on high seas around disputed Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands. Japanese media 12 Aug reported Japan’s Coast Guard issued 80 exclusion orders in 2021 to Chinese fishing vessels suspected of illegally operating in territorial waters around disputed islands. Japan 19 Aug said that it would assign one of its largest patrol ships as early as Nov to Ishigaki Island, which has jurisdiction over maritime security of islands. At least 106 Chinese coast guard vessels entered into contiguous zones of disputed islands throughout month.
Maoist violence continued in south and centre, farmers marked nine months of protests, and inter-province tensions remained high in north east. Maoist violence continued. In Telangana state (south), exchange of fire between militants and police 1 Aug killed one Maoist in Bhadradri Kothagudem district. In Chhattisgarh state (centre), Maoist IED attack 5 Aug killed one labourer and injured eleven civilians in Dantewada district; Maoists 20 Aug killed two paramilitary police personnel in Narayanpur district; security forces 24 Aug killed two Maoists in Sukma district. In Bihar state (east), Maoists 25 Aug killed two suspected police informers in Jamui district. Farmers’ protests against agriculture laws marked nine months on 26 Aug; Punjab chief minister 11 Aug urged PM Modi to withdraw laws, warned that protests had potential of posing security threats as Pakistan-supported forces were trying to exploit farmers’ anger. In north east, following late-July border dispute between Assam and Mizoram police forces, which left six Assam policemen dead, Assam residents 8 Aug lifted unofficial economic blockade on Mizoram state in place for ten days following govt intervention. Unidentified assailants 14 Aug bombed school in Hailakandi district, Assam state; authorities in Mizoram 17 Aug alleged Assam police opened fire on three Mizo civilians. Following 12th round of military talks with China about unofficial border known as Line of Actual Control (LAC), govt 6 Aug confirmed Indian and Chinese forces had disengaged from Gogra area of Eastern Ladakh, with sides having also verified dismantlement of all temporary structures, creating wider buffer zone. India mid-Aug held military exercises in East Sikkim district, close to LAC. Chinese media 25 Aug reported military drills in Tibet, described by Chinese commentators as warning to India.
Pakistan-India tensions ran high amid regional security concerns over Afghanistan and anniversary of India’s revocation of special status for Jammu and Kashmir (J&K). India, as UN Security Council (UNSC) president, 6, 17 Aug held meetings on security developments in Afghanistan, during which India’s External Affairs Minister Jaishankar 17 Aug told UNSC Pakistani-based militant groups operating with “impunity and encouragement”; Islamabad denied allegations, protested India’s decision to deny requests to attend UNSC meetings. Pakistani FM Shah Mahmood Qureshi 12 Aug blamed Indian intelligence for 14 July attack that killed ten Chinese workers in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province. On two-year anniversary of end of J&K special constitutional status, Pakistan’s foreign ministry 5 Aug summoned India’s High Commissioner to Islamabad to register “unequivocal rejection of India’s illegal and unilateral actions since 5 August” in J&K; People’s Alliance for Gupkar Declaration, J&K opposition coalition, same day held protests in J&K while Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) celebrated anniversary of revocation. Political and religious leaders from Kargil and Ladakh regions 1 Aug met and rejected union territory status, demanding statehood and safeguards against outsiders buying land or obtaining jobs; govt 10 Aug told parliament two people only had purchased property in J&K since Aug 2019. Counter-insurgency operations and militant attacks continued. Police 14 Aug claimed to have foiled terrorist attack planned for following day (India’s Independence Day), arrested four alleged Jaish-e-Mohammed militants. Security forces 3 and 7 Aug killed two alleged Lashkar-e-Tayyaba militants in Bandipora and Budgam districts. Clashes between militants and security forces 6 Aug left two alleged militants dead in Rajouri district, 12 Aug killed five in Kulgam district including two civilians, and 17 Aug left one security personnel and one militant dead in Rajouri. Militants 3 and 7 Aug killed two police officers in Srinagar city and Kulgam; 9 Aug killed BJP member and wife in Anantnag district; 19 Aug killed leader of pro-BJP Apni party leader in Kulgam. Series of grenade attacks in Rajouri, Handwara and Baramulla districts 13 Aug, 16 Aug killed two including two-year-old.
Pyongyang severed inter-Korean hotline reestablished late July amid tensions surrounding annual joint U.S.-South Korean military exercises. South Korea 8 Aug confirmed it would hold annual joint military exercises with U.S. on 10-26 Aug; Kim Yo-jong, senior North Korean official and sister of leader Kim Jong-un, 10 Aug pressured South Korea by warning that conducting the joint exercises would damage resolve of two Koreas to rebuild relations. Notwithstanding warnings, U.S. and South Korea 10 Aug began joint military exercises in limited form and with no ground troop activities. In protest at the exercises, North Korea same day ceased answering daily pro forma calls via cross-border hotlines between two Koreas that were restored late July and described by two Koreas as indicating a shared wish to have better ties. Head of North Korean ruling party’s United Front Department Kim Yong-chol 11 Aug vowed to make South Korea and U.S. “pay dearly” for their military activities, and said that they had squandered opportunity for improved inter-Korean relations. U.S. and South Korea militaries 16-23 Aug held pre-scheduled Larger Combined Command Post Training. U.S. Special Representative for North Korea Sung Kim 21 Aug arrived in South Korean capital Seoul for four-day trip, and 23 Aug met with South Korean counterpart, Special Representative for Korean Peninsula Peace and Security Affairs Noh Kyu-duk; following meeting, Kim said U.S. “does not have hostile intent toward” North Korea. International Atomic Energy Agency 27 Aug reported that North Korea appeared to have restarted nuclear reactor at Yongbyon site; U.S. senior official 30 Aug said report reflects urgent need for dialogue and confirmed U.S. is seeking to address issue with Pyongyang.
Acts of resistance and deadly clashes between regime and insurgents continued amid deadly COVID-19 wave; regional bloc ASEAN appointed special envoy for Myanmar. Bombings in urban areas increased, notably around anniversary of 8 Aug 1988 (“four eights”) uprising, which activists across country marked with flash demonstrations. Targeted assassinations of military personnel, alleged informants and members of paramilitary Pyusawhti network continued; notably, series of bombs and shootings 7-9 Aug targeted junta officials and military officers chiefly in Yangon city. During raid in Yangon, regime forces 10 Aug arrested three and seized homemade bombs, while five activists jumped from building to avoid arrest, killing two and sparking widespread shock on social media. Security forces next day arrested over 30 youths in Yangon amid parallel administration National Unity Govt’s talk of so-called “D-Day” operation to unseat junta. Series of explosions 26-27 Aug hit several locations in Yangon and Mandalay regions. Elsewhere, civil resistance group Yaw Defense Force 23 Aug ambushed military convoy on Gangaw-Kale highway, Magwe region, reportedly killing some 30 soldiers. COVID-19 crisis worsened, with hundreds dying daily in Yangon. On diplomatic front, South East Asia regional body ASEAN 4 Aug confirmed Brunei’s second FM Erywan Yusof as bloc’s special envoy to Myanmar. During virtual ASEAN-European Union (EU) Ministerial Meeting, EU foreign affairs chief Josep Borell 6 Aug called for “meaningful dialogue” between regime and parliamentary committee in exile, National Unity Govt, ethnic minority groups and pro-democracy forces. In response, State Administration Council FM Wunna Maung Lwin expressed opposition to contact between ASEAN special envoy and aforementioned entities, rejected ASEAN-mediated dialogue with opposition. In first official contact, U.S. Deputy Sec State Wendy Sherman 4 Aug called National Unity Govt FM Zin Mar Aung; U.S. 10 Aug announced provision of $50mn for Myanmar people in humanitarian assistance. Separately, U.S. 6 Aug announced charges against two Myanmar nationals detained on U.S. soil for allegedly organising attack on Myanmar’s Permanent Representative to UN who had aligned with National Unity govt. In sign of gradual recognition of military-backed State Administration Council, China 11 Aug transferred $6mn to junta under regional cooperation fund.
PM Deuba faced criticism for his role in enabling split in largest opposition party as former PM and senior communist leader Madhav Kumar Nepal pledged to join ruling coalition. PM Deuba’s cabinet remained skeletal, with only four ministers appointed seven weeks after govt formation and Deuba overseeing 17 ministries. Lingering tensions within opposition Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist Leninist, or UML) delayed ruling coalition’s plans to expand cabinet as Deuba sought support from UML leading figure and former PM Madhav Kumar Nepal; Nepal – whose support was critical to Deuba winning vote of confidence in mid-July – 18 Aug formally split from UML and announced formation of Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Socialist), now fourth largest party with 23 seats in 271-member House of Representatives; new party 26 Aug announced it would join coalition govt. Deuba faced criticism for issuing ordinance 18 Aug lowering criteria for formation of new political party to enable UML’s breakup in move observers claimed was reminiscent of previous PM Oli-led govt’s reliance on “ruling by ordinance”.
Taliban’s victory in Afghanistan heightened concerns regarding associated security risks for Pakistan, while deadly militant violence persisted. Following Taliban takeover of Afghan capital Kabul in mid-Aug, President Alvi 17 Aug said that Islamabad wants assurances “that Afghan territory will never be used against any other country”; govt same day said they would make decision on recognising Taliban govt “after consulting with regional and international powers”. Military 27 Aug told journalists “cordial” relations were expected with incoming Afghan govt, which would take “effective measures” against Pakistan Taliban. Cross-border gunfire from Afghanistan 30 Aug killed two Pakistani soldiers; military retaliated, claiming it killed two or three attackers. Meanwhile, militant attacks and security operations persisted. In Balochistan province, Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) militants 8 Aug killed two police officers in provincial capital Quetta; security forces 10-11 Aug claimed to have killed five BLA militants in Quetta; attack on Frontier Corps vehicle 14 Aug killed one soldier in Loralai district; BLA militants 20 Aug in suicide attack in Gwadar district killed two children and injured Chinese national; bomb blast 21 Aug killed one officer and two soldiers in Gichik area; BLA militants 26 Aug killed four security personnel in Ziarat and Panjgur districts. In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, militant attacks 1, 6 Aug killed three soldiers in North Waziristan and Khyber districts; 2 Aug killed police officer providing security to polio vaccination team in Dera Ismail Khan district. In South Waziristan, counter-insurgency operations 13, 18 Aug left two soldiers killed. Elsewhere, other violent attacks took place. Notably, in Sindh province’s capital Karachi, grenade attack 15 Aug killed 13 relatives of Awami National Party leader and of Islamist Jamaat-e-Islami local leader; clash between two Sunni factions 18 Aug left one dead. In Punjab province’s Bahawalgar city, grenade attack targeting Shia Muharram procession 19 Aug killed at least two and injured more than 50; counter-terrorism police 18 Aug arrested two alleged al-Qaeda members in Lahore city. Also in Punjab, Muslim mob 4 Aug vandalised Hindu temple in Bhong city after release of eight-year-old Hindu boy accused of blasphemy 24 July; 7 Aug 50 people suspected of participating in attack arrested.
Low-level violence persisted in south, while clashes between govt forces and communists killed at least two dozen. In Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao in south, violence between govt and armed groups persisted, while smaller elements of Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters (BIFF) and Islamic State-linked Abu Sayyaf Group surrendered to govt. IED allegedly planted by BIFF militants 6 Aug killed one soldier and injured seven soldiers in Datu Hoffer municipality, Maguindanao. Ten BIFF militants 13 Aug surrendered to military in Shariff Aguak town, Maguindanao. Campaign against Abu Sayyaf Group continued; notably, nine militants 11 Aug surrendered to military in Indanan town and further four 14 Aug surrendered in Talipao town. Meanwhile, fighting between govt security forces and communist New People’s Army continued at relatively higher levels than July in Visayas islands in centre, Mindanao island in south and Luzon island in north, killing at least 24 and injuring eight during month. Notably, military 16 Aug confirmed deaths of 16 communist fighters during raid on suspected hideout in Dolores municipality, Eastern Samar province. Leaders of ruling party PDP-Laban 6 Aug endorsed President Duterte as VP candidate in 2022 elections, ahead of conclusion of presidential term in 2022; Duterte 24 Aug confirmed he would run for vice presidency. False information on lockdown restriction 6 Aug circulated online, prompting scuffles amid vaccination rush in capital Manila and cities of Las Pinas and Antipolo. COVID-19 daily cases 20 Aug reached over 17,000, highest peak since pandemic began.
Region witnessed uptick in military activity as China as well as U.S. and its allies held naval exercises; Washington deepened diplomatic ties with claimant parties. U.S. 1 Aug concluded joint naval exercise off Australian coast, involving 17,000 military personnel from Australia, UK, Canada, Japan, New Zealand and South Korea. U.S. 4 Aug announced further combined naval and amphibious exercise running until 27 Aug with Australia, Japan and UK, coinciding with global naval exercises, largest since 1981, that included two U.S. aircraft carriers and UK’s carrier; China 4 Aug announced military drills in SCS 6-10 Aug reportedly in response to “US military’s Indo-Pacific exercise”, according to state-run media. Malaysian military 6-12 Aug carried out exercise “Taming Sari” in SCS, including test-fire of three live anti-ship missiles. On diplomatic front, U.S. Sec State Antony Blinken 3 Aug announced launch of “strategic dialogue” with Indonesia and reaffirmed commitment to freedom of navigation. Blinken 9 Aug reaffirmed that “it is the business” of U.S. to resolve dispute in SCS and urged every member to “peacefully resolve disputes”; Chinese Deputy Ambassador to UN Dai Bing same day responded that U.S. failure to ratify UN Convention on Law of the Sea gave it “no credibility” and that U.S. is “biggest threat to stability” in region. U.S. VP Kamala Harris 22-24 Aug visited Singapore, affirming “commitment to a longstanding relationship...with the Indo-Pacific region”; Harris 24 Aug rebuked China for “coercion” in SCS. In Vietnam 24-27 Aug, Harris told Vietnamese officials that U.S. supports upgrading ties from comprehensive to strategic partnership. China 27 Aug issued new regulations requiring, from 1 Sept, range of foreign vessels to notify authorities when entering what Beijing claims are China’s territorial waters.
Supreme Court suspended regulations linked to controversial Terrorism Act, while govt faced rising popular protests and spiralling COVID-19 cases. Supreme Court 5 Aug issued interim order suspending application of regulations issued by President Rajapaksa under controversial Prevention of Terrorism Act (PTA) to establish “deradicalisation” programme for alleged religious extremists; ruling follows petitions by journalists and activists who claim regulations violate constitution. Seven UN special mandate holders 9 Aug requested govt withdraw regulations, calling them “contrary to Sri Lanka’s international legal obligations”. Govt 10 Aug indicted 25 individuals suspected of involvement in 2019 Easter bombings; magistrate same day remanded former minister and head of All Ceylon People’s Congress Rishad Bathiudeen, detained under PTA for alleged involvement in Easter attacks. Influential Catholic Cardinal Malcolm Ranjith 13 Aug rejected president’s response to bishops’ request for effective investigations and prosecutions into terror attacks, and called for prosecution of former president Sirisena, now allied with govt, for failure to prevent bombings. Meanwhile, nationwide protests continued throughout month, including farmers contesting president’s chemical fertiliser ban, teachers demanding better pay and students, teachers and trade unions demonstrating against govt-proposed Kothilawala National Defence University bill that critics say marks first step toward end of free public university education. Govt responded with aggressive crackdowns on protesting leaders, including numerous arrests; senior judges, with govt encouragement, reportedly took unprecedented step of instructing magistrates to ban protests on COVID-19 health grounds. Govt 4 Aug postponed scheduled parliament debate of university bill. Facing rapid rise in coronavirus cases, with daily death rate passing 200, and weeks of increasingly urgent calls from health experts for strong action, govt 20 Aug imposed island-wide lockdown. President 30 Aug declared state of emergency and issued price controls on essential items, as the economic and currency crises deepened. Govt made overtures to select civil society leaders; notably, Rajapaksa 3 Aug met Sri Lanka Collective for Consensus. However, longstanding fears of govt plans to restrict NGO freedoms surfaced again as cabinet 10 Aug approved proposal for new unified law for all NGOs, citing concerns about terrorist financing.
Cross-strait tensions continued between Beijing and Taipei as U.S. announced new arms deal with Taiwan and China conducted military exercises. After U.S. Deputy Sec State Wendy Sherman late July met Chinese FM Wang Yi, raising concerns over Beijing’s conduct across Taiwan Strait, U.S. State Dept 4 Aug approved arms sale to Taiwan valued at up to $750mn; China 17 Aug said U.S. was breaching commitments on arms sales to Taiwan made under 1982 Joint Communiqué. U.S. warship 28 Aug sailed through Taiwan Strait, eighth transit in 2021. U.S. also continued to deepen unofficial engagement with Taipei. Notably, U.S. and Taiwan 11 Aug held first meeting on coastguard-related cooperation; China 13 Aug expressed its opposition. Partly in response to U.S. arms sales, China 17 Aug conducted military drills near Taiwan’s southern coast, with warships and 11 aircraft. At least 34 Chinese military aircraft entered Taiwan’s Air Defence Identification Zone during month, according to Taiwan’s defence ministry. In rare interview with international media, Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen 10 Aug stated that international concern over Taiwan Strait would prompt more cautious approach by Beijing, Taiwan would not give in to military pressure, and Beijing should cease crackdowns on Hong Kong and Xinjiang province, also rejected “one country two systems” model; China 11 Aug rebuked remarks. In response to Taiwan’s July decision to open representative office in Lithuania’s capital Vilnius, China 10 Aug announced plan to withdraw its ambassador to Lithuania and has reportedly suspended direct rail freight between two countries; U.S. officials publicly expressed support for Vilnius. Representatives of Taiwan’s and Japan’s ruling parties 27 Aug held first ever security dialogue.