CrisisWatch

Tracking Conflict Worldwide

CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.

Global Overview

Outlook for This Month June 2024

Resolution Opportunities

Trends for Last Month May 2024

Improved Situations

Conflict in Focus

Our monthly conflict tracker highlights six conflict risks in June.

  • In Myanmar’s Rakhine State, fighting between the regime and the Arakan Army has taken a dangerous communal turn. Escalating Rakhine-Rohingya violence could fuel further abuses against civilians and trigger refugee flows into Bangladesh, where camps hosting one million Rohingya have already been destabilised by violence and forced recruitment (see this month’s Conflict in Focus).
  • In Sudan, full-scale conflict pitting the army and allied Darfuri armed groups against the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces erupted in North Darfur’s capital El-Fasher, threatening to further inflame intercommunal conflict.
  • Israel’s war in Gaza entered a new phase with the long-feared Rafah offensive, displacing around one million people. Amid the bombing, ground incursions and restrictions on humanitarian aid, more civilians could die, including from starvation, dehydration or disease. 
  • The risk of expanded conflict into Lebanon, including through inadvertent escalation, grew more acute as Hizbollah and Israel continued to trade heavy cross-border blows.
  • The ruling MORENA party’s presidential candidate Claudia Sheinbaum looks poised to win the 2 June poll in Mexico, where the risk of post-election violence remains high. 
  • In Haiti, the Kenya-led multinational security mission could be met with fierce gang attacks upon arrival in June. 

CrisisWatch identified sixteen deteriorations in May. Notably:

  • Cross-strait tensions rose as Taiwan’s President Lai Ching-te articulated a tougher posture toward Beijing in his inaugural address, prompting China to issue stark warnings and launch major military drills.
  • In New Caledonia, France’s proposed voting reforms triggered the worst unrest in the archipelago in four decades, leaving at least seven people dead.
  • Georgia descended further into crisis over the ruling party’s “foreign influence” legislation as protests continued and the opposition faced violence and intimidation.
  • The security situation in Colombia’s south west sharply deteriorated as splinter groups of the EMC, a dissident faction of the former FARC insurgency, launched attacks on state targets and clashed with one another.
  • In Burundi, the government blamed a rebel group it says is backed by Rwanda for a series of deadly grenade attacks in Bujumbura city.
  • Amid the withdrawal of some international troops from Mozambique’s Cabo Delgado province, Islamic State-linked militants launched a large-scale assault on the strategic town of Macomia. 

Aside from the scores of conflict situations we regularly assess, we tracked significant developments in Bosnia and HerzegovinaCubaMauritaniaMoldovaSouth Africa and Togo.

Cyprus