Tracking Conflict Worldwide
Outlook for This Month December 2006
Conflict Risk Alerts
Trends for Last Month November 2006
November overtook July 2006 as the worst month for conflict prevention since CrisisWatch began publication 40 months ago. Fourteen situations deteriorated in November, with seven conflict risk alerts (in anticipation of new or significantly escalated conflict). Improvements were noted during November in only three situations, and no new conflict resolution opportunities were identified for the coming month.
Sectarian killings in Iraq rose to their worst levels since the U.S.-led invasion in 2003. Violence in eastern Chad increased dramatically, with over 60 villages attacked and hundreds killed. Major fighting erupted in south Sudan between the Sudan People’s Liberation Army and the Sudanese Armed Forces in the first major violation of the 2005 north-south peace agreement. In Somalia, a draft UN Security Council Resolution recommending a regional intervention force and a partial lifting of the arms embargo threatened to generate a full-scale war. Political killing and Shiite resignations in Lebanon increased polarisation and brought the government close to collapse. Côte d’Ivoire became potentially explosive as relations soured further between the prime minister and president, and security forces allied to the latter took to the streets of Abidjan. The situation also deteriorated in Azerbaijan, Bolivia, Burundi, Cen