Tracking Conflict Worldwide
Global Overview
Outlook for This Month August 2010
Conflict Risk Alerts
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Resolution Opportunities
None
Trends for Last Month July 2010
Improved Situations
Conflict in Focus
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Two actual or potential conflict situations around the world deteriorated and one improved in July 2010, according to the new issue of the International Crisis Group’s monthly bulletin CrisisWatch released today.
CrisisWatch Digests
In Somalia militant Islamist group al-Shabaab demonstrated for the first time its capability to spread conflict and bloodshed more widely across the region by launching suicide bomb attacks on Kampala, Uganda that killed at least 85 people. The bombings came after explicit warnings by al-Shabaab that they would take revenge on Uganda and Burundi for their troop contribution to the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM), which supports the transitional government against the Islamist group. Despite threats by al-Shabaab leader Sheikh Abu-Zubeyr of further strikes on Kampala and in Burundi, the two countries maintained their resolve to take on the insurgency and committed to send more troops to AMISOM. In Somalia itself scores of civilians were killed as renewed fighting broke out between al-Shabaab and government forces to the north of Mogadishu.
In stark contrast, the situation in Somaliland improved in July, with the peaceful transfer of power to successful opposition candidate Ahmed Mahamoud Silanyo following the June presidential elections. Both the conduct of the elections and the work of the National Election Commission won international praise and point to the consolidation of Somaliland’s democratic transformation.
July saw further political violence and a shrinking of the democratic space in Rwanda ahead of the presidential elections scheduled for August. The killing of opposition politician Andre Kagwa Rwisereka is the latest in a series of attacks on high-profile government critics. Although the government denies any involvement, this month’s events should be seen as part of an alarming trend towards repression and intimidation, which could have serious security implications come next month’s elections.
Burundi
Electoral commission 27 July announced President Nkurunziza’s CNDD-FDD party won 81 of 106 seats in 23 July elections for lower house of parliament. Provisional results released 30 July indicated ruling party also won 32 out of 34 lower house seats in 28 July senate elections, boycotted by opposition. Police 10-11 July arrested 11 FNL members accused of attacks targeting ruling party; FNL claimed 50 arrested, EU observation mission stated total 242 arrests since May beginning of electoral process. 2 FNL cadres excluded from party 5 July for “insubordination” after criticising FNL elections boycott. FNL president Rwasa, still in hiding, issued message 8 July denying he was planning insurgency. Journalist Jean Claude Kavumbagu arrested 17 July on treason charges after questioning ability of security forces to face terror attacks. Reports emerged 26 July ADC coalition spokesman and opposition CNDD leader Leonard Nyungoma fled country fearing arrest. Public Works Minister Kanyenkiko 20 July resigned from FRODEBU executive committee and party in protest at election boycott.
Central African Republic
CPJP rebels and MLCJ dissidents attacked Birao in NE 19 July; targeted army base, looted NGO compound. Army says 13 attackers, 1 soldier killed. Poachers killed 6 presidential guards in ambush 8-9 July near Bassangoa. UNDP 13 July began verification of ex-combatant lists for DDR in northwest. Visiting CAR 9-10 July, UN Rep for IDPs Kaelin said return of 200,000 IDPs vital to peace. LRA attacked Madabazouma village in southeast 4 July, killed 5, kidnapped 7. President Bozize ended election calendar uncertainty in 30 July decree scheduling presidential and parliamentary elections for 23 Jan 2011.
Chad
Chad-Sudan relations strengthened over month: Khartoum 18 July expelled Chadian rebel leaders Erdimi (RFC), Nouri (UFDD) and Tollimi (UFR), while N’djamena defied ICC arrest warrant for Sudanese President Bashir, hosting him 22-23 July at regional summit despite ICC and EU calls for his arrest. Govt 1 July accepted international experts’ participation in inquiry into Feb 2008 disappearance of opposition leader Mahmat Saleh. Govt same day adopted law increasing parliament seats from 155 to 186 to even regional imbalances, as suggested by electoral commission (CENI). Opposition 8 July questioned accuracy of seat allocation, CENI’s impartiality. President Déby 6 July dismissed governor of eastern Ouaddai province where insecurity has soared in recent months. MINURCAT 15 July completed first withdrawal phase, pulled out 1,400 troops.