CrisisWatch

Tracking Conflict Worldwide

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CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, a tool designed to help decision-makers prevent deadly violence by keeping them up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace.

Global Overview

Outlook for This Month June 2010

Conflict Risk Alerts

Resolution Opportunities

Trends for Last Month May 2010

Improved Situations

Four actual or potential conflict situations around the world deteriorated and none improved in May 2010, according to the new issue of the International Crisis Group’s monthly bulletin CrisisWatch, released today.

CrisisWatch Digests

Israeli commandos killed at least nine people when they raided a flotilla of ships carrying humanitarian aid to Gaza on 31 May. Full details are not yet clear but the incident has already thrown into question recently launched proximity talks between the Palestinians and Israel. The international community has been swift to condemn Israel’s actions and the UN Security Council has called for an impartial investigation. However, the event has underscored the failure of a much broader policy for which Israel is not solely responsible. Many in the international community have been complicit in isolating Gaza in the hope of weakening Hamas, an approach that has ultimately harmed the people of Gaza without loosening Hamas's control.

May also saw renewed violence in the streets of Bangkok. Clashes between anti-government Red Shirt protesters and security forces that resulted in scores of deaths in April escalated this month, leaving at least 54 people dead. Soldiers removed the Red Shirts from the capital on 19 May and the government has since lifted a curfew imposed on Bangkok and 28 other provinces. But a state of emergency remains and divisions between the Thai establishment and the protesters, many of whom support former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, have widened. The government has so far failed to address the underlying causes of the protests, which are likely to have long-term implications for Thailand’s stability.

Tensions continued to mount on the Korean Peninsula after investigators announced that a South Korean ship that sunk in March had been hit by a North Korean torpedo. Pyongyang continues to deny responsibility for the sinking which killed 46 people. With Seoul now threatening to take the case to the UN Security Council, recent events have highlighted the challenges facing South Korea – as well as China and the international community more broadly – in dealing with its volatile northern neighbour.

Security also deteriorated in India, where suspected Maoist rebels derailed a train on 28 May leaving at least 147 civilians dead. The Maoists have denied responsibility, but the incident has once again underlined the government’s failure to curb escalating insurgent violence that has become increasingly deadly in recent months.

Latest Updates

Africa

Burundi

Ruling CNDD-FDD won 24 May local elections, held after last-minute 2-day postponement, with 64%, followed by FNL 14%. 90.7% turnout reported; national and international observers said vote peaceful and fair; opposition challenged results and alleged fraud; riots in Bujumbura 29 May after FNL demonstration against alleged fraud, police arrested 50. Responding to CNDD-FDD and FNL skirmishes, police 4 May imposed curfew in Bwambarangwe (North). Govt 18 May expelled HRW researcher Neela Ghoshal after report on electoral violence.

Cameroon

Riot police 3 May clashed with demonstrators accusing govt of 22 Apr death in prison of journalist Bibi Ngota. 2 foreign vessels attacked 16 May in Douala bay; 3 Russians, 1 Lithuanian taken hostage; attack blamed on Nigerian MEND movement. Russian ambassador 24 May started negotiations with captors. Cameroon-Nigeria mixed commission 3 May started further demarcation of boundaries mandated by 2002 ICJ decision.

Central African Republic

Constitutional Court 28 May validated constitutional amendment allowing extension of president’s mandate, adopted 10 May by parliament; amendment allows only PM, appointed by president, to request mandate extension; though criticised by opposition, only 6 of 27 opposition members voted against bill. Head of MPLC (opposition) Martin Ziguélé 8 May prevented from leaving country amid opposition calls for political deal instead of constitutional change. Police reported 50,000 marched 19 May in support of President Bozizé in capital. Presidential guards 20 May reportedly forced way into home of presidential candidate and ex-Minister of Regional Development Marie Reine Hassen; Hassen left minister post 2009 after death threats. Numerous LRA attacks in region (see Uganda).

Chad

UNSC 25 May extended MINURCAT mandate, but announced complete withdrawal by 31 Dec; UNSG Ban 6 May had recommended 1 year extension; President Déby had requested departure before 2011 polls. Rebel leader Mahmat Nouri 20 May defected from UFR, created new rebel coalition ANCD with UFDD, CDR, MDRI, FSR; Nouri argued armed struggle still necessary as credible elections unlikely. Darfur rebel leader Khalil Ibrahim (JEM) 19 May denied entry to Chad; authorities cited improved ties with Khartoum; incident triggered impromptu 300-400 people demonstration of solidarity with Ibrahim in N’djamena (see Sudan). Voter registration began 5 May as decreed by Déby 4 May; very low turnout attributed to lack of information; 4m voters expected.

Comoros Islands

President Sambi remained in power despite end of mandate 26 May and Supreme Court 8 May rejection of constitutional reform extending mandate. Riots in Moheli 26 May when Sambi appointed new govt. Opposition called for elections before 27 Nov 2011 date decreed by Sambi; negotiations to resolve crisis stalled 26 May, but Sambi reportedly open to earlier polls.

Côte d’Ivoire

UNSC 27 May rolled over ONUCI mandate until 30 Jun 2010. PM Soro 4 May announced complete revision of all voter lists by 10 May; 415 appeal commissions will be established for voters with unclear citizenship; ruling FPI welcomed decision; RHDP (opposition) criticised review of entire lists and resulting delays. President Gbagbo and Soro met opposition: held first meeting in 6 years with Bédié (PDCI) 10 May, met with Ouattara (RDR) 17 May; Soro claimed talks fruitful. Following talks, main opposition parties (RHDP, PDCI, RDR) 13 May canceled big demonstration to prevent clashes; though respected, decision frustrated youth-wings. Gbagbo 31 May refused to participate in 35th Africa-France summit; Gbagbo set dialogue on 2002 French military intervention as condition.

Democratic Republic of Congo

UNSC delegation 13-15 May discussed MONUC future in Kinshasa; govt reportedly insisted on troop drawdown to demonstrate sovereignty but also requested support for military, police, judicial reforms and elections. UNSC renewed MONUC mandate 28 May; MONUC to become stabilisation mission (MONUSCO) in June when up to 2,000 troops withdrawn from west; peacekeeping to continue in east; future drawdowns guided by joint monitoring mechanism. MONUC chief Doss 19 May announced retirement; govt had often called for his departure. Ondjani Mangbama, leader of Enyele rebels responsible for 4 Apr attack on Mbandaka (northwest), arrested 10 May. Despite Mai Mai and FDLR still active in N Kivu, killing 1 UN soldier 23 May, MONUC-FARDC joint operation Amani Leo focused on S Kivu; increasing tactical alliances between armed groups unsatisfied with peace agreement implementation in N Kivu reported, including CNDP dissidents and Mai Mai, and some collaboration with FDLR. Constitutional deadline for decentralisation expired 14 May; some deputies, including from ruling AMP, expressed frustration. Several provincial deputies early month announced de facto decentralisation measures. Opposition 14 May issued censure motion against PM Muzito (PALU); motion withdrawn 19 May because of forged signatures. PALU supporters 19 May besieged National Assembly, assaulted Assembly President Boshab; Senate 26 May summoned Muzito to explain stalled decentralisation. 20 arrested 23 May, charged of planning attacks on Lubumbashi (southeast). Law establishing new electoral commission (CENI) adopted 7 May; civil society criticised law for excluding them from CENI board. Numerous LRA attacks in region (see Uganda).

Ethiopia

Ruling EPRDF won 97% of seats in 23 May parliamentary elections according to provisional results. Opposition Medrek coalition accused govt of fraud, 26 May called for re-run. Chief EU observer 25 May said elections calm but conducted on “uneven playing field” favouring EPRDF; many reports of voter intimidation. Opposition, govt 26 May announced 2 opposition members shot in Oromia region. Govt 9 May claimed Medrek responsible for killing policeman. Govt 19 May confirmed ONLF insurgents had attacked Malqaqa (East) but denied rebel claims they had captured town, killed 95 soldiers. Govt denied ONLF 29 May claims they had seized Hilala gas field (Somali Region). Bus bomb 20 May wounded 13 in Sheraro near Eritrean border; no claims of responsibility. At least 7 killed 21 May in clashes near Ethiopian-Somaliland border (see Somaliland).

Guinea

Interim President Konaté 4 May signed decree putting new constitution into force and 6 May set presidential election date of 27 June; International Contact Group on Guinea 16 May warned against ethnic campaigning; 40-day electoral campaign started peacefully 17 May; 24 candidates include long-time opposition figure Alpha Condé (RPG), former PM Sidra Touré, Francois Fall, Celou Dalien Diallo and Lansana Koyaté. Konaté 28 May denied supporting RPG candidate Condé. Army chief col. Noukou Thiam 19 May guaranteed army’s neutrality and urged politicians to refrain from agitation. Azaro movement, led by Dadis Camara’s uncle Etienne Ouomo, allegedly threatened to prevent polls in Dadis’ home province (Guinée Forestière) unless Dadis allowed to return. ICC delegation in Conakry 24 May to investigate Sept 2009 violence.

Guinea-Bissau

ECOWAS fact-finding mission 5 May examined circumstances of PM Gomes’ detention during 1 Apr coup attempt. Former head of navy José Americo Bubo Na Tchuto trial started 13 May; accused of complicity in 2008 coup attempt and drug trafficking. Charges dropped 31 May.

Kenya

Interim Independent Electoral Commission 14 May said referendum on new constitution approved by parliament last month to be held 4 Aug; said over 12m people registered to vote. ICC Chief Prosecutor Ocampo visited Kenya 8-12 May to begin investigations into 2008 post-election violence which left estimated 1,000 dead; said intends to prosecute up to 6 suspects. Judges 24 May ruled Islamic “Kudhi“ courts illegal; critics say such courts could be expanded under new draft constitution; Attorney General Wako announced plans to appeal decision. 7 reportedly wounded in suspected al-Shabaab attack near Somali border.

Madagascar

Interim President Rajoelina 1 May declared Apr Pretoria talks failure; announced constitution of neutral govt after 3-4 May meetings with army; army had issued 1-month ultimatum for roadmap to end political crisis. In state address Rajoelina 12 May said he would not run for president in next elections; reportedly due to army and international pressure. President also announced organisation of national dialogue 27-29 May (later postponed), constitutional referendum 12 Aug, legislative elections 30 Sept and presidential elections 26 Nov, and requested exclusion of ex-presidents from polls. Govt reshuffled on 24 May to become “neutral” but only 10 new ministers (out of 32) including 5 members of army. At least 3 killed in 20 May clashes between national army mutineers and loyalists in Antananarivo; army re-established order same day; mutineers allegedly supported by Protestant pastors present during clashes and ousted President Ravalomanana; Ravalomanana 22 May denied charges.

Mali

Sahel-Saharan military exercise, part of Pentagon’s Africa Command, took place 3-22 May involving around 1200 troops: U.S. special forces trained troops from Mali and neighbouring countries to fight al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) and drug traffickers.

Niger

CSRD junta 5 May announced transition of power to civilian rule by Feb 2011 as recommended by National Transitional Council. Referendum on new constitution in Oct; presidential elections by 26 Dec with 2nd vote in Jan 2011, if necessary. Military to be barred from standing. AQIM 14 May claimed responsibility for kidnapping Frenchman 20 Apr; AQIM demanded release of its members in exchange for hostage. Nigerien soldiers participated in Sahel-Saharan military exercise (see Mali).

Nigeria

President Yar’Adua died 5 May after long illness which fuelled uncertainty in recent months; acting President Jonathan sworn in next day. Jonathan appointed Namadi Sambo, relatively unknown governor of northern Kaduna state, VP 13 May; confirmed by parliament 18 May. Appointment raised speculation Jonathan may contest 2011 election despite party’s practice of alternating power between country’s north and south. Jonathan 30 May pledged electoral reform by end 2010. Ruling People’s Democratic Party Chairman Vincent Ogbulafor 14 May said he would resign next month after facing court on corruption charges 11 May. 4 killed in religious clashes in and near Jos 22, 23 May. Army 3 May reported increase in oil bunkering in Niger Delta amid delays in govt amnesty program for former militants. Jonathan 14 May promised to improve security, development in Delta and better coordinate education, reintegration efforts. Several kidnaps reported in Delta during month.

Rwanda

President Kagame 15 May elected RPF presidential candidate; opposition figures Victoire Ingabire (FDU) and Bernard Ntanganda (PS Imberakuni) 18 May requested postponement of elections due to insecurity and biased electoral commission; EU 19 May said will not deploy electoral observers because of budgetary constraints; U.S. Asst Sec State for African Affairs Carson 25 May “worried” by crackdown on opposition. Peter Erlinder, U.S. attorney defending opposition leader Ingabire against divisionism charges, arrested in Kigali 28 May and charged with genocide negation. Double grenade attacks killed 2 in Kigali 15 May, no suspects named. Genocide fugitives arrested: Eugene Rwamucyo 26 May in France; Charles Bandora 11 May in Belgium; Bandora reportedly financed Interahamwe, ordered killing of 400 Tutsis and killed 2 people himself; Kigali demanded extradition. German police 17 May arrested 2 presumed FDLR commanders.

Somalia

Deadly clashes between govt/AU forces and Islamist militias continued amid heightened political uncertainty. PM Sharmarke and govt reportedly lost vote of no confidence 16 May when parliament met for 1st time since Dec. President Sheikh Sharif 20 May reinstated Sharmarke after earlier calling for his resignation. Parliamentary speaker Madobe, reported rival of Sharmarke, resigned. Sharif Hassan Sheik Adan, reported ally of president, elected new speaker 28 May. In Mogadishu at least 30 killed, dozens injured in 1 May blasts; at least 14 killed when al-Shabaab insurgents attacked presidential palace 23 May. UNSG Ban 22 May urged international support for transitional govt at UN-sponsored Somalia conference in Istanbul. EU High Rep Ashton visited region 18 May to discuss piracy; several hijackings reported during month.

Somaliland

26 June date for presidential election set by National Electoral Commission formally approved after President Kahin gave backing 13 May. At least 7 killed 21 May when Ethiopian army clashed with Somali residents in Buhudle district on Ethiopian-Somaliland border.

Sudan

Security deteriorated in South and Darfur following last month’s flawed elections. Carter Center 10 May reported April polls were “chaotic, non-transparent and vulnerable to political manipulation”. UNSG Ban 5 May noted failure to include “large groups of Darfurians”. SPLM 8 May said NCP-led govt arming militias ahead of 2011 referendum on southern independence. President Bashir 30 May dissolved govt ahead of forming new cabinet. Failed Jonglei gubernatorial candidate George Athor 3 May said he had taken command of group of mutinous soldiers, called for removal of victorious SPLM candidate citing fraud; Athor said 50 Southern soldiers killed in clashes 7 May, 83 killed 12 May; further clashes reported 14 May. 26 killed in 5 Apr tribal clashes over livestock in Warrap (South). Govt said 100 JEM Darfuri rebels killed when army seized Jebel Moon stronghold 15 May; JEM denied reports. Followed JEM’s 3 May suspension of peace talks with govt citing ongoing army attacks. Chad 19 May refused entry to JEM leader Khalil Ibrahim (see Chad). ICC 26 May referred Sudan to UNSC for failure to arrest 2 suspected Darfur war criminals. 2 UNAMID peacekeepers killed 7 May in southern Darfur.

Uganda

Voter registration started 3 May; enrolment deadline postponed from 15 May to 4 June due to low turnout and delays; President Museveni 9 May acknowledged delays but refuted accusations of political repression in run-up to vote. Parliament 19 May rejected opposition amendment bill to limit presidential mandates, exclude army from parliament and reform electoral commission; opposition 20 May threatened to boycott polls unless reforms adopted. HRW 20 May reported 74 killed in LRA Feb attack in NE DRC; 2 Sudanese govt officials killed 16 May in Western Equatorial State; at least 38 civilians including 2 ICRC staff killed in CAR during month. OCHA-chief Holmes 2 May said UN will investigate massacres; Ugandan army 6 May demanded budget raise to fight LRA; CAR army 18 May deployed 600 troops in SE to protect civilians.

Zimbabwe

MDC-T treasurer Roy Bennett 10 May acquitted of treason charges; state prosecution 12 May announced appeal; ZANU-PF refused Bennett’s appointment as deputy agriculture minister despite acquittal, fuelling tensions in inclusive govt. PM Tsvangirai (MDC) 17 May called for SADC meeting to address stalled implementation of Global Political Agreement; followed early May visit by SADC envoy after ZANU-PF-Bennett row. President Mugabe appointed former electoral commission chief George Chiweshe as High Court’s Judge President and swore in 5 new judges; appointment likely to heighten tensions; critics say undermines judiciary. Tsvangirai 11 May welcomed reviewed U.S. sanctions legislation targeting individual politicians and voiced hopes to hold constitutional referendum by end 2010 and elections 2011. Tsvangirai and MDC-T Sec Gen and Finance Minister Biti downplayed infighting within MDC widely reported in state-media. Tsvangirai 3 May urged implementation of Indigenisation and Economic Empowerment Act to be more orderly and planned than 2000 land reform; Biti 5 May appointed new Central Bank board, hoped to implement reforms. New Zimbabwe Media Council 27 May granted publishing licenses to 4 private newspapers.

Asia

Afghanistan

President Karzai visited Washington mid month: U.S. President Obama 12 May said tensions with U.S. “overstated”, offered qualified support for Afghan efforts to reintegrate Taliban fighters. UNSG Ban 15 May pledged to attend 20 July Kabul conference on reintegration. Officials postponed late-month Peace Jirga where reintegration was to be discussed until 1st week of June, citing “technical factors”. Attacks by Taliban insurgents intensified ahead of planned ISAF summer offensive in Kandahar: 4 NATO officials, 2 U.S. soldiers, 12 Afghan civilians killed 18 May in deadliest attack on foreign troops in Kabul since Sept 2009. 1 protester shot dead by police 14 May as hundreds demonstrated in Nangahar province against NATO “night raid” that reportedly killed 11 civilians; NATO denied civilians harmed in raid.

Bangladesh

Police 25 May detained head of Islamist group Jamaat-ul-Mujahideen Bangladesh. 9 BDR border guards sentenced up to 7 years prison 2 May for involvement in Feb 2009 BDR mutiny; followed Apr sentencing of 192.

India

At least 147 civilians killed, scores injured after suspected Maoists 28 May derailed train in West Midnapore district, West Bengal; Maoists denied responsibility, but police claimed strong evidence. At least 35 civilians, police killed in 17 May bus bomb by Maoists in Danteweda district, Chhattisgarh; at least 20 reported killed in other attacks. Ruling Congress Party split on whether to launch air strikes against rebels. Protesters calling for govt to lift its ban on Nagaland rebel leader Thuingaleng Muivah entering Manipur continued to block supply roads to state. 6 suspected separatist rebels killed 14 May in Manipur near Myanmar border.

India-Pakistan (Kashmir)

Indian PM Singh 24 May said “major effort” underway to build trust with Pakistan after early month meeting with Pakistani PM Gilani. Continued militant activity in Valley: 4 suspected militants, 2 soldiers killed in 7 May gun battle in Bandipora district. 1 Pakistani soldier killed in cross-border shooting 23 May. Indian anti-terrorism court 6 May sentenced to death Pakistani found guilty of Nov 2008 Mumbai attacks.

Indonesia

Round up of suspected terrorists continued during month; 30 arrested, 5 killed in separate raids. Aris Susanto, aide to late militant leader Noordin Top, sentenced to 8 years on terrorism charges 31 May. Justice and Human Rights Minister Tarialis Akbar 17 May stated intention to release several Papuan political activists. Thousands demonstrated 18 May in Jayapura demanding govt implement decree requiring regional election candidates be indigenous Papuan amid continuing confusion over electoral laws. In Puncak Jaya regency, military 17 May killed suspected separatist; 21 May attack by suspected separatists on military post left 3 injured. Tribal conflict erupted in Timika 24 May. In East Java, police 21 May arrested 70 following violent protests over local electoral dispute outside Mojokerto regency assembly, 8 injured.

Korean Peninsula

North-South Korean relations deteriorated further after investigators 20 May announced N. Korean torpedo caused March sinking of S. Korean ship despite NK denials. S.Korean President Lee Myung-bak 20 May pledged “stern action” against NK; S. Korea 23 May stated intention to take case to UNSC. S. Korea 24 May froze trade with NK, resumed propaganda broadcasts on DMZ; NK threatened to fire artillery at loud speakers. NK 25 May severed all ties with S. Korea; NK 27 May scrapped 2004 accord aimed at preventing accidental naval clashes with S. Korea. UNSG Ban 26 May expressed confidence UNSC would “take measures appropriate to the gravity of the situation”. Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao 30 May during regional summit, warned of need to diffuse tension but stopped short of condemning NK over attack. NK leader Kim Jong-il 5 May visited China; met President Hu Jintao; Chinese media 7 May reported NK prepared to negotiate over nuclear weapons. UN OCHA 18 May stated intention to send team to NK to assess aid situation.

Myanmar

Opposition National League for Democracy officially disbanded 6 May after March decision to boycott polls set for later this year over restrictive electoral laws. Several cabinet ministers resigned from military during month in preparation for elections; PM Thein Sein launched campaign 20 May after late Apr registering new Union Solidarity and Development Party. U.S. Asst Sec State Campbell 10 May met govt officials and opposition including Aung San Suu Kyi; expressed “profound disappointment” about election preparations; U.S. 14 May extended sanctions. Police chief 5 May announced arrest of suspect linked to Apr Rangoon bomb blasts; said 4 members of Vigorous Burmese Student Warriors involved.

Nepal

Maoists 28 May backed parliamentary bill to extend term of Constituent Assembly for 1 year; PM Madhav Nepal in return reportedly agreed to resign, opening up for new unity govt including Maoists. But political deadlock remained late-month as Maoists 31 May warned of “serious crisis” if PM does not resign within “promised” 5 days; Nepal said he will only resign if Maoists first disband own army, return property captured during civil war. Early month saw heightened unrest as estimated 150,000 Maoist supporters rallied in Kathmandu 1 May demanding coalition govt be replaced by Maoist-led govt. Maoists held general strike 2-7 May shutting down transport, schools, businesses; occasional clashes between protesters and merchants, residents attempting to break strike; estimated 20,000 rallied against the strike in Kathmandu. UNSC 12 May extended UNMIN mandate by 4 months.

Pakistan

At least 90 members of minority Ahmadi sect killed after gunmen 28 May attacked two Lahore mosques; “Punjabi Taliban” militant group claimed responsibility. Violence continued across northwest: army said 10 soldiers, 30 militants killed in clashes in Orakzai Agency 10 May. U.S. urged tougher Pakistani action against militants after saying “plausible links” between Pakistani Taliban and early May failed car bomb attempt in NYC; at least 5 Pakistanis, reportedly including army officer, arrested in connection. In N Waziristan, intensified U.S. drone strikes reportedly killed over 20 suspected militants during month. President Zardari 18 May pardoned Rehman Malik, former interior minister and Zardari ally accused of corruption in 2004, highlighting continued dispute between judiciary and president. Supreme Court continued hearing challenges to Apr constitutional amendments. More than 30 killed in targeted killings by ethnic-based political factions in Karachi.

Philippines

10 May elections produced decisive win for Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino III; outgoing President Arroyo won seat in congress; Esmael Mangudadatu, whose wife and family killed in Nov 2009 massacre, won governorship of Maguindanao; Andal Ampatuan Sr, currently on trial for massacre, lost bid for vice-governor. Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) and govt early month agreed terms of reference for civilian protection and unexploded ordnance clearing in Mindanao. Under pressure from Organisation of the Islamic Conference, MILF and Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF) 20 May signed agreement on closer coordination but unclear any practical significance. Clashes between govt and communist New Peoples Army (NPA) continued in eastern Mindanao.

Sri Lanka

Govt marked 1-year anniversary of defeat of LTTE amid heightened calls for international investigation into alleged war crimes committed by govt and LTTE during final months of war. Govt dismissed allegations but announced new “Lessons Learned and Reconciliation Commission” to examine last years of war; local activists and international observers criticised its limited mandate and pro-govt membership; U.S. Sec State Clinton 28 May urged govt to give commission powers to probe war crimes allegations. UNSG Ban late month reiterated his own advisory panel on Sri Lanka accountability would soon be named. Parliament 5 May lifted parts of emergency laws; but right to detain suspects without trial and other broad emergency powers continue in wide use. Decision to place Attorney General under President’s office alarmed lawyers and rights activists. Court of Appeal 21 May allowed suspended court martial against ex-army chief and defeated presidential candidate Fonseka to proceed. Fonseka 12 May appeared before civilian court on separate charge of inciting unrest and falsely charging President Rajapaksa’s brother with war crimes.

Taiwan Strait

Taiwan 4 May opened tourism office in Beijing in sign of improved relations; China followed by opening office in Taipei 7 May. Taiwan President Ma Ying-jeou 7 May maintained “premature” to meet with Chinese leaders.

Thailand

Violence in Bangkok between security forces and “red shirt” protesters left 54 dead over May. Months-long stand-off continued despite PM Abhisit’s 3 May offer of early elections, later withdrawn. Pro-“red shirt” army general Khattiya Sawasdipol shot 13 May. Soldiers raided “red-shirt” encampment 14-19 May, fired live rounds. Majority of protesters surrendered 19 May and camp disbanded as several buildings, including stock exchange, damaged by protesters. Govt 19 May imposed curfew in Bangkok and 23 other provinces; curfew lifted 29 May but state of emergency remains. Thai court 25 May approved arrest warrant for former PM Thaksin on “terrorism charges” linked to unrest; Thaksin denied fomenting violence. Opposition MPs 25 May began process to impeach PM Abhisit. UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Navi Pillay 31 May called for investigation into violence. In restive south, 2 bombs exploded 26 May in Yala killing 2 and injuring 55.

Timor-Leste

Police reportedly clashed with 13 men of illegal armed group 16 May in Ermera district; followed recent reports illegal weapons circulating in area. Police alleged group, which remains at large, led by retired Indonesian soldier.

Europe & Central Asia

Armenia

Yerevan court 4 May sentenced former senior Defence Ministry official Armen Sarkisian to 2 years in prison, gave his former subordinate and accomplice 1 year suspended jail term for leaking in Dec 2009 secret govt order sanctioning military’s involvement in suppressing 2008 post-election protests. Directive issued Feb 2008 amidst opposition demonstrations in Yerevan and gave specially created command structure unlimited control over military units in capital. Highest criminal court 5 May rejected appeals against 2 lower-court rulings, upholding 3.5 year jail term of opposition leader Nikol Pashinian sentenced for alleged role in 2008 post-election unrest.

Armenia/Türkiye

Continued stalemate over normalisation of relations. In 17 May visit to Baku Turkish PM Erdogan reiterated Turkey will not sign rapprochement protocols with Armenia before resolution of Nagorno-Karabakh (N-K) conflict. Armenian delegation at Council of Europe’s Parliamentary Assembly (PACE) resisted efforts by current PACE President and Turkish politician Mevlut Cavusoglu to restart talks on N-K settlement in PACE subcommittee before mission of committee is clarified. Cavusoglu 13 May made first trip to Armenia; stirred controversy by refusing to visit genocide memorial, traditional site for visiting foreign delegates.

Azerbaijan

In 17 May visit to country, Turkish PM Erdogan discussed Nagorno-Karabakh with President Aliyev; they pledged to set up high-level strategic cooperation council. Opposition parties 15 May attempted rally in Baku calling for free parliamentary elections in Nov 2010. Police dispersed rally, detained some 50 protesters; 11 sentenced to 5-6 days in jail.

Basque Country (Spain)

Spain’s National Court 21 May sentenced 3 ETA members to 1,040 years each for Dec 2006 Madrid airport car bomb. French police 20 May arrested ETA military chief Mikel Karrera Sarobe and 2nd-in-command, along with 4 other suspected ETA members in Bayonne; 1 suspect sought for 17 March killing of French police officer in shootout near Paris.

Belarus

President Lukashenka 4 May refused to extradite ousted Kyrgyz President Bakiyev after request by interim Kyrgyz govt. Russian PM Putin 28 May announced Russia, Kazakhstan to launch customs union 1 July leaving Belarus out. Energy deal between Russia, Belarus failed earlier same day.

Bosnia And Herzegovina

In 24 May report to UNSC, High Rep Inzko said internal politics in Bosnia deteriorated, blamed Republika Srpska leadership for undermining state institutions. European Commission 26 May adopted proposal recommending lifting of visa regime for Bosnia provided latter meets outstanding requirements in areas of law enforcement, fight against organised crime, corruption, penal code reform. Terror suspect Maksim Bozic arrested early May; 2 alleged Wahhabi members with ties to Bozic arrested 21 May. 45 detained 25 May in large-scale operation against organised crime.

Cyprus

Turkish PM Erdogan 14 May made 1st official visit to Athens since 2004, reiterated backing for Annan peace plan to reunite Cyprus. Turkish FM Davutoglu 21 May announced Turkey to reopen ports to Cypriot ships if EU trade restrictions on Turkish Cypriots lifted in return. UN-backed reunification talks resumed 26 May in Nicosia after 18 Apr suspension; UNSG Ban 26 May said agreement could be reached “in the coming months”.

Georgia

Incumbent mayor of Tbilisi and ruling party candidate, Gigi Ugulava, set for landslide victory according to preliminary results of 30 May local elections. Outcome of mayoral contest in Tbilisi, home to 1/3 of country’s population, believed to foretell results of 2013 presidential elections. OSCE monitoring mission said vote transparent, approaching international standards, but marked by systemic irregularities, uneven playing field. Russian PM Putin 8 May said Moscow ready for dialogue with “constructive political forces” in Georgia at ceremony to inaugurate World War II memorial in Moscow, replicating one blown up by Georgian govt in Kutaisi in Dec 2009. Ex-parliamentary speaker Nino Burjanadze and ex-PM Zurab Nogaideli attended ceremony. After series of releases, new detentions of Georgians by South Ossetia (SO) over month, 12 Georgians currently in prison in SO for allegedly illegally crossing administrative border.

Kazakhstan

Govt 1 May dispersed May Day demonstration by opposition in Almaty, detained most protesters. Russian PM Putin 28 May announced Russia, Kazakhstan to launch bilateral customs union 1 July. Lower house of parliament 12 May, upper house 13 May approved constitutional amendment granting President Nazarbaev status of “leader of the nation” giving him ultimate say on all policy decisions, lifetime immunity from investigation and prosecution.

Kosovo

Serbs in north 30 May held local elections organised by Serbia, prompting violent clashes between ethnic Albanian protesters, Serb voters in ethnically divided Mitrovica, intervention by NATO peacekeepers and EUPOL officers. EULEX 23 May said will not recognise results of elections; followed by orders to stop Serbian officials from making unauthorised visits to region. Decision triggered by former Serbian PM Kostunica’s campaign trip to Mitrovica and Zvecan 23 May. UNMIK said will maintain neutral stance on elections. In 17 May report to UNSC, UNSG Ban reiterated concerns Kosovo govt strategy for north could increase tensions if implemented without dialogue with local communities. Serb refugee returns obstructed by local ethnic Albanian harassment, attacks in western village of Zalac mid-month. NATO Sec Gen Rasmussen 21 May said security improved, NATO to continue downsizing troops. Police in Prizren region 22 May arrested 2 Kosovo Albanians, 3 Bosniaks suspected of Wahhabi links for illegal arms possession. Djibouti 13 May, Somalia 19 May recognized Kosovo’s independence.

Kyrgyzstan

Persistent unrest and violence in south over month. 1 killed, at least 60 wounded when supporters of ousted former President Bakiyev 14 May briefly took over local govt buildings in Jalal-Abad, Batken, Osh; demanded return of Bakiyev as country’s “legitimate president”. Clashes in large Uzbek minority town of Jalal-Abad 19 May left 2 dead, dozens wounded as Kyrgyz protesters attempted to storm local university connected to Uzbek community, demanded arrest of local Uzbek leader accusing him of provoking hostility in region. Govt charged Bakiyev supporters with stirring up interethnic tensions; 19 May declared state of emergency in town. Some 5000 demonstrators rallied again in Jalal-Abad 20 May, reportedly assaulting regional governor who tried to reach out to crowd. Phone conversations of provisional govt leaders released online 20 May sparked accusations of corruption, govt infighting. Interim govt 21 May unveiled new draft constitution transferring many presidential powers to PM, allowing only 1 presidential term of 6 years. National referendum scheduled for 27 June to approve constitution, appointment of interim govt leader Roza Otunbayeva as acting president till Dec 2011. Parliamentary elections to be held 10 Oct, to be followed by formation of new govt, appointment of PM.

Moldova

Russian President Medvedev, Ukrainian President Yanukovych 17 May signed joint statement referring to Transdniestria and Moldova as separate entities, calling for Transdniestria to be given “special status”. EU High Rep Ashton 17 May issued statement reaffirming commitment to 5+2 negotiations format, Moldovan territorial integrity, sovereignty. Govt in 18 May statement asked Russia to pull troops, ammunition out of Transdniestria.

Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict

European Parliament 20 May non-binding resolution on new EU strategy in South Caucasus called for Armenian withdrawal “from all occupied territories of Azerbaijan”; welcomed by Azerbaijani MFA, criticised by Armenia. N-K 23 May held fifth parliamentary elections since de-facto independence. Ruling Free Fatherland party led results with 47% of vote. Azerbaijan 23 May denounced vote as illegal under Azerbaijani, international law. Armenian FM Nalbandian 24 May praised elections as sign of democratic consolidation. EU High Rep Ashton warned ahead of vote holding elections illegal, should not prejudice against peaceful settlement of N-K conflict.

North Macedonia

Growing interethnic tensions, armed violence over month. Group claiming to be National Liberation Army (NLA), ethnic Albanian rebels officially disarmed under 2001 Ohrid Agreement, 3 May claimed responsibility for 29 Apr shootout with police near Kosovo border after discovery of large arms cache. 4 gunmen killed in 11 May shootout near Radusa when Macedonian police stopped van carrying arms across border; despite discovery of NLA insignia, NLA link not confirmed. 4 arrested after discovery of another large weapons stash 13 May in operation in Novo Selo. Officials believe 2 groups connected. Some 2,000 ethnic Albanians rallied in Skopje 10 May against alleged govt discrimination.

Northern Ireland (UK)

Major security operation launched 5 May ahead of 6 May UK general election. 7 suspected IRA dissidents arrested 5 May after bomb exploded outside Lurgan police station. Police 6 May destroyed car bomb outside voting centre in Derry. New PM Cameron 20 May stated commitment to peace process and continued devolution. 6 police officers injured by petrol bombs near Lurgan 17 May.

Russia (Internal)

Rumoured presidential nominee for PM post of Cherkess origin, Fral Shebzukhov, shot dead 12 May. Appointment of ethnic Cherkess as PM part of unwritten rule to preserve ethnic balance in Karachayevo-Cherkessia republic leadership. Head of FSB 13 May announced 3 aides of 29 March Moscow suicide bombers killed. Rise in violence in Kabardino-Balkaria including killing of deputy prosecutor in Baksan 20 May; bombing of house of cabinet minister 16 May; bombing of VIP lounge at Nalchik hippodrome 1 May killing 1, reportedly injuring 27, including cabinet minister. In Dagestan: 2 bomb explosions, several shooting incidents left at least 3 policemen, over half dozen civilians dead over month. 3 suspected militants reported killed 28 May in Bata-Yurt village. In Nazran, Ingushetia 2 militants killed 1 May, 5 May in shootouts with police.

Chechnya

President Kadyrov 23 May announced 2 militants killed in special operation on outskirts of Serzhen-Yurt village. At least 3 law enforcement officers killed, 3 wounded in explosions, shoot-outs with militants over month, including 17 May killing of head of investigative bureau in Grozny.

Serbia

EU Enlargement Commissioner Fuele 19 May said next month’s report by Hague tribunal Chief Prosecutor Serge Brammertz on co-operation by Serbia crucial to country’s EU integration bid. Tribunal 19 May announced receipt from Serbia of diaries of former Bosnian Serb commander Ratko Mladic to be used in trial of former Bosnian Serb leader Karadzic. FM Jeremic 16 May said agreement reached on holding 2 June EU-Western Balkans summit with Kosovo’s participation. Summit to be held in so-called Gymnich format with countries represented without state symbols. Govt 20 May pledged to undertake investigation into possible mass grave discovered 10 May in Raska, believed to contain remains of some 250 ethnic Albanians killed in 1998-1999 Kosovo conflict.

Tajikistan

Court 18 May handed down 6 month to 6 year prison sentences to 36 people for membership of banned Islamic group Jamaat ut-Tabligh; several other alleged followers received suspended sentences. President Rahmon 12 May reinstated State Committee on Religious Affairs to oversee country’s religious organisations. During visit to country, Iranian Defence Minister 13 May said Tehran ready to mediate between Tajikistan, Uzbekistan on contentious hydropower construction projects.

Turkmenistan

In address to national Council of Elders, President Berdymukhammedov 14 May reiterated calls to parliament to draft law on political parties to create multiparty system, suggested formation of agrarian party. President 14 May signed into law new criminal code approved by parliament 10 May. Amendments reduced maximum term of imprisonment from 25 to 15 years.

Türkiye

Jailed separatist PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan 29 May reportedly abandoned efforts to seek dialogue with govt. PKK increased attacks in southeast over month after spring thaw: rocket attack on Iskenderun naval base 31 May killed 6 soldiers, injured 7; 7 members of security forces killed 29