Zimbabwe’s military unexpectedly ousted President Robert Mugabe in late 2017, nearly four decades after he took power. Debilitating internal factionalism within the ruling Zanu-PF party over succession to Mugabe has culminated in the elevation of Emmerson Mnangagwa to the helm. He has promised to break with the past as he endeavours to navigate a much needed economic recovery. Prospects for promoting a new more inclusive political culture are less certain. Credible elections in 2018 could be a vital stepping stone toward a peaceful democratic transition, but they also pose a challenge to Zimbabwe’s weak institutions. Through research and analysis, Crisis Group sheds light on obstacles to a smooth, credible electoral process leading up to 2018. We help relevant actors nationally and internationally to buttress the likelihood of peaceful elections and democratic transition.
Zimbabwe will hold elections on 23 August. As with past votes, the playing field is skewed in favour of the ruling party ZANU-PF. In this Q&A, Crisis Group expert Nicolas Delaunay lays out the stakes and assesses the risks of violence.
Worsening human rights situation and widespread repression overshadowed annual regional SADC summit in capital Harare, drawing international criticism.
Authorities continued crackdown on critics. Govt 17 Aug hosted summit of heads of state of southern African regional body SADC in capital Harare, with President Mnangagwa elected as organisation’s new chair. Ruling party ZANU-PF officials several times ahead of meeting said govt would take strong actions to prevent opposition from damaging Zimbabwe’s reputation by disrupting summit with protests. Security forces stepped up presence around meeting as tanks and anti-riot police reportedly patrolled city; increased security forces also present in Gweru, Kwekwe, Mutare cities and Chitungwiza town. Govt also continued repression in lead-up to summit; rights groups Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch reported authorities 1-9 Aug arrested 30 people including political figures. Police 15 Aug arrested former opposition MP and 11 others for allegedly attempting to spark protests in Gokwe town, Midlands Province, with eight remanded in custody after 27 Aug being denied bail; security forces 17 Aug arrested another former MP, Prince Dubeko Sibanda, at Beitbridge border with South Africa for inciting public violence and transported him to Harare, where he remained in custody.
International actors condemned crackdown around summit. UN human rights office 14 Aug said it was “concerned by reports of arrests, harassment and intimidation”. U.S. embassy next day released statement affirming support for SADC summit goals of improving economic development and security, but said “intimidation, torture and prolonged pre-trial detention…runs counter to these principles”. Earlier, EU, UK and U.S. missions noted and criticised that lead-up to summit had seen intensified crackdown. SADC member states, however, including regional powerhouse South Africa, remained largely quiet on rising repression.
For years, South Africa trusted in behind-the-scenes contacts to alleviate Zimbabwe’s political and economic problems. But those troubles have continued to mount. By stepping up pressure, and by working with Washington on reform guidelines, Pretoria can help Harare find a way out of its crisis.
In 2019, killings by machete-wielding gangs at Zimbabwe’s gold mines jogged the government into preventive action. But police sweeps alone cannot make the sector safe. Harare should adopt reforms that allow more citizens to mine legally and head off disputes over the country’s mineral wealth.
The Zimbabwean government’s decision to hike fuel prices has sparked fierce opposition. In this Q&A, Crisis Group’s Senior Consultant Piers Pigou explains how economic hardship is driving ordinary citizens to unprecedented acts of resistance.
Zimbabwe’s disputed elections have reinforced political divisions as the Constitutional Court hears an opposition challenge of the results. The military crackdown on opposition protesters highlights the urgency of reform if the government is to preserve stability and, by extension, its re-engagement strategy with international donors.
On 30 July Zimbabwe will hold elections. For the first time since independence Robert Mugabe is not a candidate. His successor presents himself as a reformer – but many doubt the polls will be clean. The opposition warns that Zimbabweans will not tolerate another stolen election.
A new presidential administration in Zimbabwe offers an opportunity for much-needed democratic and economic reform after years of stagnation. In this excerpt from our Watch List 2018, Crisis Group proposes four key areas on which the EU and its member states should focus its support: the security sector, elections, the economy and national reconciliation.
President Emmerson Mnangagwa has the chance to embark on a much-needed process of economic and governance reform in Zimbabwe. The military’s role in the political transition casts a shadow on the road to credible elections, which remain a priority if his government is to earn national and international legitimacy.
Delayed elections in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), where the stalled transition risks provoking a major crisis, are one of three critical African polls: the DRC crisis, the recent vote in Kenya and Zimbabwe’s election next year all have important implications for democracy and stability on the continent.
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