Commentary

Two large attacks on police installations have rocked Pakistan, compelling the authorities to rethink their approach to countering militancy. Their dilemma is that the insurgents’ main supporters – the new authorities in Afghanistan – are also their long-time allies.

دو حملهٔ بزرگ به تأسیسات پولیس ،دولت پاکستان را تکان داد و مقامات را وادار کرد تا در رویکرد خود برای مقابله با ستیزه جویان تجدید نظر کنند. معضل آنها این است که حامیان اصلی شورشیان - مقامات جدید در افغانستان - متحدان دیرینهٔ آنها نیز هستند.

The following is adapted from a March 2023 report by Crisis Group’s President and CEO Comfort Ero to the organisation’s Trustees (before Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s 20-21 March visit to Moscow). She looks at the Ukraine war and its knock-on effects – from big-power polarisation to middle-power activism and disquiet outside the West about the conflict.

Le texte qui suit est adapté du rapport prononcé en mars 2023 par la présidente et directrice générale de Crisis Group, Comfort Ero, devant les membres du conseil d’administration de l’organisation (avant la visite du dirigeant chinois Xi Jinping à Moscou, les 20-21 mars). Elle se penche sur la guerre en Ukraine et ses répercussions, de la polarisation des grandes puissances à l'activisme des puissances moyennes, en passant par l'inquiétude que suscite le conflit en dehors de l'Occident.

Данное заявление представляет собой адаптированную версию доклада Президента Международной кризисной группы Комфорт Эро, сделанного на заседании Попечительского совета в марте 2023 года (до визита председателя КНР Си Цзиньпиня в Москву). Президент Эро анализирует войну в Украине и влияние, которое она оказывает на мировую политику: поляризацию крупных мировых держав, активизацию средних стран и обеспокоенность конфликтом в государствах за пределами западного мира.

El siguiente comentario es una adaptación de un informe de marzo de 2023 de Comfort Ero, presidenta y CEO de Crisis Group, al Consejo Directivo de la organización (antes de la visita del líder chino Xi Jinping a Moscú los días 20 y 21 de marzo). Ella analiza la guerra de Ucrania y sus repercusiones, desde la polarización de las grandes potencias hasta el activismo de las potencias intermedias y la inquietud que suscita el conflicto fuera de Occidente.

Цей текст адаптовано зі звіту Президентки Міжнародної кризової групи Комфорт Еро, підготованого в березні 2023 року для Опікунської ради організації (перед візитом китайського лідера Сі Цзіньпіна до Москви 20-21 березня). Вона розглядає війну в Україні та ланцюжок її наслідків – від поляризації великих держав до активності середніх та занепокоєння конфліктом за межами Заходу.

The core lesson of the 2003 Iraq war is that ruptures in autocratic settings are inherently fraught with risk. Policymakers should approach proposed interventions in such settings with caution.

تمثّل الدرس المحوري في حرب العراق عام 2003 في أن تفكيك البيئات الاستبدادية عملية حافلة بالمخاطر بطبيعتها. ولذلك ينبغي على صناع السياسات مقاربة التدخلات المقترحة في مثل تلك البيئات بحذر.

The architects of the 2003 invasion of Iraq had grand visions of transforming the Middle East in favour of U.S. interests. Two decades later, it is clear that the venture was a failure not just in that respect, but in most others as well.

كان لدى مهندسي غزو العراق عام 2003 رؤى عظمى لتغيير الشرق الأوسط بشكل يحقق المصالح الأميركية. بعد عقدين من الزمن، بات من الواضح أن المشروع فشل ليس من ذلك الجانب فحسب، بل من معظم الجوانب الأخرى أيضاً.

In UN debates over Russia’s war in Ukraine, Western countries are still pledging to back Kyiv militarily, while non-Western states are more inclined to call for a negotiated peace. Thus far, however, the latter’s proposals for reaching that goal have been short on detail.

An agreement between the military and civilians could provide a path out of decades of authoritarian rule, but progress is not assured. In this excerpt from the Watch List 2023, Crisis Group explains how the EU and its member states can support Sudan’s transition.

Myanmar’s military regime is planning elections despite facing widespread resistance. In this excerpt from the Watch List 2023, Crisis Group explains how the EU and its member states can help ease the country’s political and humanitarian crisis.

Iraq has a new government after months of delay, but various challenges to stability persist. In this excerpt from the Watch List 2023, Crisis Group explains how the EU and its member states can help support necessary reforms.

Dialogue efforts in the Gulf have stalled amid rising tensions. In this excerpt from the Watch List 2023, Crisis Group explains how the EU and its member states can help revive Saudi-Iranian and other talks.

The Taliban seem determined to isolate the country from the world, which can only lead to greater misery for Afghans. In this excerpt from the Watch List 2023, Crisis Group explains how the EU and its member states can help address the challenges Afghanistan faces.

Lula’s return to the presidency promises a stronger role for Brazil in multilateral diplomacy. In this excerpt from the Watch List 2023, Crisis Group urges the EU and its member states to make the most of this opportunity.

O retorno de Lula à presidência promete um papel mais forte para o Brasil na diplomacia multilateral. Neste trecho da Watch List 2023, o Crisis Group insta a UE e seus Estados membros a aproveitar ao máximo esta oportunidade.

Overlapping crises have added to the economic burdens of many countries, particularly those already in debt. In this excerpt from the Watch List 2023, Crisis Group lays out steps the EU and its member states can take to reduce vulnerability and risks of unrest.

The EU is sending a mission to monitor the Armenia-Azerbaijan border. In this excerpt from the Watch List 2023, Crisis Group explains what else the EU and its member states can do to avert another war and revitalise peace talks.

The Al-Shabab insurgency continues to pose a threat to civilians in northern Mozambique. In this excerpt from the Watch List 2023, Crisis Group explains how the EU and its member states can help stabilise the area.

Russia’s war in Ukraine may go on for some time to come. In this excerpt from the Watch List 2023, Crisis Group explains how the EU and its member states can keep supporting Kyiv while avoiding direct clashes with Moscow.

El regreso de Lula a la presidencia augura un rol más importante para Brasil en la diplomacia multilateral. En este extracto del Watchlist 2023, Crisis Group insta a la UE y sus estados miembros a aprovechar al máximo esta oportunidad. 

The UN General Assembly has been a notable barometer of international opinion about Russia’s war in Ukraine since it began. With the one-year marker approaching, Kyiv can secure a diplomatic victory in New York with a resolution that affirms principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine sent shock waves round the world. As our look ahead to 2023 shows, several other crises loom as well.

أرسل الغزو الروسي لأوكرانيا موجات الصدمة في سائر أنحاء العالم. وكما تظهر نظرتنا لمشهد عام 2023، فإن بضعة أزمات أخرى تلوح في الأفق.

L'invasion de l'Ukraine par la Russie a provoqué des ondes de choc dans le monde entier. Comme le montre notre état des lieux de 2023, d'autres crises se profilent également

La invasión rusa de Ucrania ha sacudido el mundo. Como muestra nuestra mirada hacia 2023, otras crisis también se avecinan.

The Pakistani military is getting new leadership amid political turmoil centred around former Prime Minister Imran Khan, who refuses to accept the current government as legitimate. The generals promise not to get involved, but if the dispute turns violent, they may feel compelled to intervene.