The killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran has brought the Middle East to its moment of greatest peril in years. All concerned must do their utmost to avoid regional war. The most important step, besides mutual restraint, is a Gaza ceasefire.
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If Israel can get away with killing Iranian allies in the middle of Tehran, there is no safe haven for Iranian leadership anywhere.
The perception that Iran can neither protect its homeland nor its key allies could be fatal for the Iranian regime.
The next Iranian government … [is] not at all eager to rely on Russia and China for their economic needs, and they want sanctions relief.
The Islamic Republic has really focused on ideological conformity at the top rather than legitimacy from below.
Iran is more aggressive in the region, more repressive at home, and closer to the verge of nuclear weapons than ever before.
In this X space, Crisis Group's experts Ali Vaez and Stephen Pomper talk with Eran Etzion, Dana Stroul, and Danny Citrinowicz about the risks of all-out war between Iran and Israel and how this outcome can still be prevented.
Genuine pressure on Israel and Hamas to enact a Gaza cease-fire could dial down tensions across the region.
Originally published in Foreign Policy.
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