Guerrilla group FARC released its last military and police hostages this week, raising hopes that progress might be made toward a negotiated end to Colombia's half century old internal armed conflict. Javier Ciurlizza, Crisis Group's Latin America Program Director, looks at how the administration of President Santos and the international community can build a model for negotiations, peace, and transitional justice.
Thierry Vircoulon, directeur du projet pour l’Afrique centrale de l’International Crisis Group, revient sur la nature, très politique, de la corruption au Burundi, et Il en expose les conséquences sur le développement du pays, et définit des recours pour lutter contre le problème.
West-African state Guinea-Bissau, known for its chronic instability, went to the polls on Sunday 18 March 2012. Early figures from some polling stations in the capital Bissau showed former prime minister and ruling party candidate Carlos Gomes Junior far ahead. Now five candidates have called for the cancellation of the polls, due to “massive rigging”. Vincent Foucher, Crisis Group’s West Africa Senior Analyst, looks at current developments.
North Korea and the U.S. recently struck a deal in which the DPRK will cease nuclear tests in exchange for nutritional food aid. Daniel Pinkston, Crisis Group’s Deputy Project Director for North East Asia, discusses whether this represents a real opening in efforts to denuclearise North Korea.
Alan Keenan, Crisis Group’s Senior Analyst and Sri Lanka Project Director, examines how de facto military rule and various forms of government-sponsored “Sinhalisation” of the Tamil-majority region are impeding international humanitarian efforts, reigniting a sense of grievance among Tamils, and weakening chances for a real political settlement to devolve power in Sri Lanka.
When Kim Jong-il died in December 2011, he left the leadership of North Korea to his son, Kim Jong-un. While some observers predicted that the transfer of power would destabilize the regime, the transition has apparently proceeded with no major upsets. Daniel Pinkston, Crisis Group’s Deputy Project Director for North East Asia, parses the succession and what it means for regional security.
The risk of war between Iran, Israel and the US has rarely been so high. Hugh Pope, Turkey/Cyprus Project Director for the International Crisis Group, lays out a plan to defuse tensions and points to Turkey as a potential model for engaging Iran.
Georgia is in the midst of transitioning from a presidential to a mixed parliamantary system, in which much power will lie with the office of the Prime Minister. Elections later this year will determine whether current President Mikheil Saakashvili's party, United National Movement, will retain control of government. Medea Turashvili, Caucasus analyst for the International Crisis Group, discusses what implications this might have on Georgia's domestic and foreign policy.
In the 1990s, the Nagorno-Karabakh war between Azerbaijan and Armenia generated one of the world’s largest populations of internally displaced persons, or IDPs, when hundreds of thousands of ethnic Azeris fled their homes in the face of Armenian forces. Lawrence Scott Sheets, Crisis Group's South Caucasus Project Director, discusses how IDPs have fared and the prospects for a deal that could permit their return.
In 2008, Russia and Georgia went to war over South Ossetia, a small entity just a short drive north from the Georgian capital, Tbilisi. Since that war, South Ossetia has declared itself an independent state. Discussing the latest developments in South Ossetian politics, and what that means for its relations with Russia and Georgia, is Crisis Group’s Caucasus analyst, Medea Turashvili.
Zimbabwe must hold elections before the end of June 2013 but the reforms needed to ensure appropriate conditions are critically wanting. The regional organization, the Southern African Development Community, calls for the removal of international sanctions, claiming they are a serious political impediment to reform. Crisis Group’s Southern Africa Project director, Piers Pigou, discusses the broader paralysis that characterizes Zimbabwean politics.
Two weeks after the International Criminal Court (ICC) confirmed that four prominent Kenyan figures, including two presidential candidates, are to stand trial over crimes against humanity, political emotions in the country are running high. Andrew Stroehlein, Communications Director for the International Crisis Group, and Abdullahi Boru Halakhe, Crisis Group Kenya Analyst, discuss the situation in Eldoret which is the scene of post-election violence 4 years ago, and talk about the local feelings in the run-up to the next elections due in 2012.
Somali militant group Al-Shabaab has built a cross-border network with the aim of radicalising and recruiting youth to fight in Somalia and carry out attacks within Kenya. EJ Hogendoorn, Crisis Group's Horn of Africa Project Director, discusses how best to counter the trend.
The West African country Guinea-Bissau has been relatively stable since the political and military turmoil of 2010. But crucial political, military and judicial developments still lie ahead of this year's presidential elections. We talked to Vincent Foucher, Crisis Group's Senior Analyst for West Africa, about the future of Guinea-Bissau.
Depuis les troubles militaires de 2010 et la tentative de coup d'Etat du 26 décembre dernier, la Guinée-Bissau se stabilise peu à peu. Ceci dit, alors que les Bissau-Guinéens se préparent aux élections présidentielle et législatives, l'incertitude politique, militaire et judiciaire pèse encore sur le pays. Vincent Foucher, analyste principal pour l'Afrique de l'Ouest de Crisis Group, examine la situation et souligne les principaux enjeux.
The city of Ambon, Indonesia, is in some ways showing impressive spirit and innovative ideas in addressing the threat of renewed violence, but the slightest spark could still all too easily set off another round of Christian-Muslim bloodshed.
After post-election violence gripped Kenya in 2007-08, the International Criminal Court (ICC) launched an investigation into top politicians allegedly implicated in the crisis. Crisis Group analyst Abdullahi Boru Halakhe looks at the effect the ICC proceedings may have on this year's presidential and legislative elections.
On the second anniversary of the devastating 2010 earthquake, Mark Schneider, Senior Vice President and Special Adviser on Latin America, discusses the improvements Haiti has made and what remains to be done.
In a few days, hundreds of officials from more than 50 countries will descend on Bonn, Germany, for what has been billed as one of the most significant turning points in Afghanistan's ten-year dance with the international community. The conference planners hope to set out their vision for a reset of international engagement in Afghanistan in a move that will mark the beginning of the end of the decade-long Western military presence.
The Myanmar government under President Thein Sein has introduced reforms that may begin to resolve nearly 60 years of ethnic conflict. Jim Della-Giacoma, Crisis Group's Southeast Asia Project Director, speaks about these reforms.
Led by Joseph Kony, the Lord's Resistance Army (LRA) has terrorized Central Africa for decades. Central Africa analyst Ned Dalby explains why a unique opportunity might exist now to end the LRA insurgency for good.
Lawrence Sheets, Crisis Group's South Caucasus Project Director, discusses the risks of renewed war between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh.
Several international conferences on Afghanistan are trying to chart the country's future after the planned 2014 U.S. withdrawal. Robert Templer, Crisis Group's Asia Program Director, warns of the deteriorating security and regional interference likely to accompany the U.S. drawdown of troops.
Sabine Freizer, Crisis Group's Europe Program Director, discusses how the leadership of Republika Srpska can put its troubled relationship with the central government in Sarajevo back on track.
Hugh Pope, Turkey/Cyprus Project Director for the International Crisis Group, looks at the recent spike in violence between the Turkish government and the Kurdish PKK insurgency and discusses what can be done to bring the decades-long conflict to a close.
A separatist insurgency has simmered for decades in Indonesian Papua, driven by complex economic, political and historical factors. Recently, violence has taken a turn for the worse. Sidney Jones, senior advisor to Crisis Group’s Asia Program, discusses steps Jakarta should take to address Papuan grievances.
Côte d’Ivoire President Alassane Ouattara faces the difficult task of rebuilding the country after five months of post-election violence that killed thousands. Gilles Yabi, Crisis Group’s West Africa Project Director, discusses the tasks Ouattara faces.
Famine has again struck the Horn of Africa. Somalia, Ethiopia and Kenya have experienced widespread malnourishment, with almost 4 million people in need of immediate assistance in Somalia alone. EJ Hogendoorn, Crisis Group’s Horn of Africa Project Director, discusses the famine’s causes and implications.
Jim Della-Giacoma, Crisis Group’s South East Asia Project Director, discusses changes in Myanmar and the steps international organizations and governments should take to encourage development.
As South Sudan secedes from the north, tensions between the two continue. Key issues have yet to be resolved, including many points of shared economic and political policy. EJ Hogendoorn, Crisis Group's Horn of Africa Project Director, discusses the challenges facing the two Sudans.
Saad Adoum, analyste principal de Crisis Group pour le Tchad, nous parle de l’évolution de la politique pétrolière tchadienne suite à l’influence croissante de la Chine, de l’impact de la crise libyenne sur le pays, et des conséquences de la réconciliation tchado-soudanaise sur la situation militaire du Tchad.
Insurgent activity in Afghanistan has now spread beyond traditional strongholds in the south to districts surrounding the capital, exposing the slow erosion of security in the Afghan heartland. Candace Rondeaux, Crisis Group’s Senior Analyst for Afghanistan, discusses the implications of U.S. withdrawal for the evolving Afghan insurgency.
A year and a half after the 2010 earthquake, hundreds of thousands continue to subsist in Haiti's displaced persons camps, where they remain vulnerable both to rising crime rates and to the 2011 storm season. Mark Schneider, Crisis Group's Senior Vice President and Special Adviser on Latin America, looks at why the greatest challenge facing Haiti's new president, Michel Martelly, may be resettling the country's displaced.
Vincent Foucher, analyste principal de Crisis Group pour la Guinée-Bissau, examine la situation politique actuelle du pays après le retour des militaires sur la scène politique en avril 2010, le rôle de l’Angola, et les mesures à envisager au niveau national et régional afin d’éviter un blocage.
On June 19, Somalia’s prime minister stepped down amid ongoing violence between the country's Transitional Federal Government and the Islamist group al-Shabab. His resignation followed a power struggle between the president and speaker of the parliament. EJ Hogendoorn, Crisis Group’s Horn of Africa Project Director, discusses the implications for Somalia.
Kunle Amuwo, Crisis Group’s Senior Analyst for Nigeria, talks about the lessons learnt from the country’s last elections, the speculations about renewed separatist tensions and the challenges President Jonathan Goodluck will be facing in the coming months.
Kunle Amuwo, analyste principal de Crisis Group pour le Nigéria, nous parle des leçons à tirer des dernières élections du pays, des spéculations autour d'un regain de tensions séparatistes, et des défis auxquels va être confronté le président Goodluck Jonathan dans les prochains mois.
Vincent Foucher, Crisis Group’s West Africa Senior Analyst, talks about the upcoming legislative elections in Guinea and the role of the military in the new regime.
Vincent Foucher, analyste principal de Crisis Group pour l'Afrique de l'Ouest, nous parle des prochaines élections législatives en Guinée et du rôle de l'armée dans le nouveau régime.
Nathan Thrall, Crisis Group’s Middle East Analyst, talks about radical Islam in Gaza, and the relation between Hamas, the Islamic movement in control of the strip, and radical Islamist groups, and the challenges they pose.
Javier Ciurlizza, Program Director for Latin America and the Caribbean, talks about Crisis Group’s latest report on Guatemala’s International Commission Against Impunity, CICIG. He analyses the commission’s successes so far and what it still needs to do in order to dismantle illegal security forces and clandestine security organizations over the long term.
Javier Ciurlizza, director para América Latina y el Caribe, nos habla del último informe de Crisis Group sobre la Comisión Internacional contra la Impunidad en Guatemala (CICIG). Analiza los éxitos de la comisión hasta el momento y lo que queda por hacer para lograr desmantelar a los Cuerpos Ilegales y Aparatos Clandestinos de Seguridad (CIACS).
Piers Pigou, Crisis Group’s Southern Africa Project Director, examines the current political situation in Zimbabwe and talks about the urgent reforms needed in order to avoid a new wave of political violence.
Fatah and Hamas, the two main Palestinian factions, signed in Cairo a historic reconciliation deal ending four years of Palestinian division. Azmi Kishawi, researcher with Crisis Group in Gaza, talks about the timing, content, and future of this deal.
وقعت حركتي فتح وحماس في القاهرة على ورقة المصالحة منهين بذلك الانقسام الفلسطيني. عزمي قيشاوي، باحث لدى مجموعة الأزمات الدولية في غزة، يتحدث في هذه الحلقة عن توقيت ومضمون ومستقبل هذه المصالحة
Mere weeks before South Sudan is set to become independent, the northern Sudanese army has occupied Abyei. Zach Vertin, Crisis Group's Horn of Africa analyst, explains what sparked the conflict and how to resolve it.
The battle for Afghanistan’s security grows more complicated as corrupt politicians form ties with insurgent groups, creating cartel-like structures. Candace Rondeaux, Crisis Group's Senior Analyst based in Kabul, discusses the country's current security situation.
Gilles Yabi, Crisis Group’s West Africa Project Director, talks about President Alassane Ouattara’s intention to investigate alleged atrocity crimes in Côte d’Ivoire during the post-election violence, as well as the prospects for peace and the security situation in the country.
Gilles Yabi, le directeur du projet Afrique de l’ouest de Crisis Group, nous parle de l’intention du Président Alassane Ouattara d’enquêter sur les atrocités présumées commises en Côte d’Ivoire durant les violences post-électorales, ainsi que des perspectives de paix, et de la situation en matière de sécurité dans le pays.
The ongoing turmoil in the Arab world began in Tunisia, where earlier this year President Ben Ali, in power for 23 years, fled the country after only four weeks of popular protest. Rob Malley, Crisis Group's Middle East and North Africa Program Director, explains why the first Arab revolution may have the best chance of success.
Gilles Yabi, Crisis Group’s West Africa Project Director, analyses the current situation in Côte d’Ivoire after the arrest of former President Laurent Gbagbo and discusses the prospects of a truth and reconciliation commission.
Après une grave recrudescence des violences ces dernières semaines, la reconquête d’Abidjan par les forces d’Alassane Ouattara et l’arrestation de Laurent Gbabgo semblent marquer une accalmie pour la Côte d’Ivoire. Gilles Yabi, directeur du projet Afrique de l’ouest de Crisis Group, analyse la situation et ses perspectives.
In March, after a month of popular protests, the island kingdom of Bahrain called for assistance from its neighbours in the Gulf to defend against an unspecified outside threat. In response, Saudi Arabia and other states dispatched troops and police. Though unspecified, the concern was clear: Bahrain’s Sunni rulers feared Iran’s influence among the country’s majority Shiite population. Joost Hiltermann, Crisis Group’s Deputy Director for the Middle East and North Africa Program, explains why the Iranian threat is overblown.
Javier Ciurlizza, Director del Programa para Latinoamérica y el Caribe de Crisis Group, explica las características de los conflictos en América Latina.
Mass protests have convulsed Yemen in recent months, as the country's established opposition parties have joined large street demonstrations in calling for Ali Abdullah Saleh to abdicate the presidency. April Longley Alley, Crisis Group's Senior Analyst for the Arabian Peninsula, looks at what distinguishes Yemen's protest movement from others throughout North Africa and the Middle East.
Elijah Zarwan, Crisis Group’s North Africa Senior Analyst, looks at the developments in Egypt and what needs to be done in order to ensure a smooth transition to an enduring democracy.
Afghanistan continues to struggle with fall-out from last fall’s parliamentary elections, with some seats remaining contested even after Parliament’s inauguration. In December, the Supreme Court, with President Karzai’s approval, established a Special Tribunal to settle election complaints. Crisis Group Senior Analyst Candace Rondeaux explains why the Special Tribunal may undermine an already fragile security situation.
The Communist Party of the Philippines has waged an insurgency against the Philippine government for over forty years. The two adversaries agreed to a series of peace talks this week in Norway—six years after talks were last suspended. Bryony Lau, Crisis Group’s South East Asia Analyst, explains the roots of the conflict and why this round of talks might lead to a negotiated settlement.
فيما استحوذ استفاء جنوب السودان وترتيبات مرحلة ما بعد الانفصال بين الشمال و الجنوب على اهتمام العالم, مازال الصراع في دارفور محتدماً. فؤاد حكمت, مستشار مجموعة الأزمات الدولية في الشؤون السودانية و شؤون الإتحاد الأفريقي يطلعنا على آخر المستجدات.
Escalating front-line clashes, a spiralling arms race, vitriolic rhetoric and a virtual breakdown in peace talks increase the chance Armenia and Azerbaijan will go back to war over Nagorno-Karabakh. Sabine Freizer, Crisis Group's Europe Program Director, explains the situation.
Les heurts répétés entre l'Arménie et l'Azerbaijan prennent une dangereuse tournure. Les deux pays revendiquent la régiondu Nagorno-Karabakh et se confrontent régulièrement sur la frontière. Mais avec les négociations au point mort, des discours vindicatifs et une course à l'armement, une guerre dans le Caucase se profile. Sabine Freizer, directrice du Programme Europe pour International Crisis Group, tire la sonnette d'alarme.
Le Liban attend les résultats du Premier Ministre Najib Mikati pour sortir de l'impasse. Après la démission du gouvernement Hariri, tout le pays est plongé dans le doute. Sahar Atrache, analyste du Liban pour International Crisis Group revient sous les tensions qui traversent le Liban.
Laurent Gbagbo, en refusant de céder le pouvoir à Alassane Ouattara, cherche à gagner du temps pour se maintenir à la tête de la Côte d'Ivoire. La médiation envoyée par l'Union Africaine semble avoir peu de chances de résoudre la crise. Rinaldo Depagne, analyste senior au sein du Projet Afrique de l'Ouest pour International Crisis Group, décrypte la situation ivoirienne.
Thierry Vircoulon, Crisis Group’s Central Africa Project Director, explains the consequences of Congo's election laws revision. Among others, the run-off system was eliminated, allowing the candidate with a plurality to claim the presidency. This constitutional revision increases the presidential powers.
Suite à une réforme contestée de sa Constitution, les élections présidentielles du mois de novembre de la République Démocratique du Congo se tiendront à un tour unique au lieu de deux. Pour ses opposants, cette réforme est une manoeuvre pour maintenir au pouvoir l'actuel président, Joseph Kabila. Thierry Vircoulon, Directeur du Projet d'Afrique Centrale d'International Crisis Group décrypte la situation.
According to Haiti's constitution, President René Préval has less than two weeks left in his term, yet the country still has not voted on his successor. A second round to last November’s flawed presidential election has been delayed as the leading candidates have vied to appear on the official ballot. Crisis Group’s Senior Vice President Mark Schneider looks at Haiti’s potential constitutional crisis and gives an update on the country’s cholera epidemic and progress on post-earthquake reconstruction.
The European Union should take on the leading international role in Bosnia & Herzegovina now and not wait for the Office of the High Representative (OHR) to close, argues Marko Prelec, Crisis Group’s Balkans Project Director.
As part of a peace deal signed in 2005, Southern Sudanese went to the polls this week to decide whether to secede from Sudan. Crisis Group’s African Union and Sudan Special Advisor Fouad Hikmat breaks down what’s at stake and explains what should happen when the voting ends.
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