The Middle East Could Still Explode

On April 13, Iran launched Operation True Promise, its response to Israel’s April 1 attack on its consulate in Syria. Over the course of less than 24 hours, Tehran fired a combination of more than 300 drones and missiles at Israeli military facilities. Senior commanders hailed the attack—which involved the first-ever direct strikes launched against Israel from Iranian territory—as successful in sending a message, even though Israel and its allies successfully downed nearly all the incoming fire.

Policymakers and pundits have known for days that the Islamic Republic would retaliate for Israel’s strike in Damascus, which killed several senior Iranian commanders and personnel. But until the drones and missiles took off, it was not clear whether Tehran would make what had previously been a covert and indirect conflict into an overt and direct one. Now the Rubicon has been crossed, and the next chapter is uncertain and fraught with danger for Iran, its regime, and the broader region.

Read the full article on the Foreign Affairs website.