While the U.S. remains the world's strongest military and economic power, its place and role on the international stage is shifting. There are potentially dramatic implications for international peace and security from a U.S. foreign policy that is increasingly inward-looking, less predictable, less multilateral, and more reliant on the threat or use of military force to achieve its objectives. In 2017, Crisis Group established its first program dedicated to analysing U.S. policy, understanding who makes and shapes it, and offering recommendations to help guide its trajectory.
President Trump’s 8 March acceptance of an invitation to meet his counterpart Kim Jong-un marks a first in U.S.-North Korea relations and a rare opening for diplomacy. To maximise the chance of a successful summit, all sides will have to prepare a realistic agenda and align their expectations.
Originally published in Foreign Policy
A nightmarish Korean peninsula war is closer than at any time in recent history. In the first of a two-part series, Crisis Group examines the interests and calculations of the states most affected or involved: North Korea, the U.S., South Korea, China, Japan and Russia.
Brinksmanship on the Korean peninsula threatens a potentially catastrophic military escalation. In this second report of a two-part series, Crisis Group lays out the steps to de-escalate the crisis and buy time for a more durable solution.
By 12 October, Washington will decide whether the steps Sudan has taken qualify it for lifting some U.S. sanctions. But to push forward afterwards will require a new roadmap that ties further sanctions relief and improved bilateral relations to political reform and human rights.
There are two views on [John] Bolton among the Israeli security establishment. There is a concern that he’s primarily an ideologue and there’s a risk to stability, and others who say he has decades of experience.
The Trump administration’s move to the right with [former Secretary of State] Tillerson’s departure, [replaced by former CIA director Mike] Pompeo, signals further hardening of Washington’s stance.
[With Mike Pompeo named to replace Rex Tillerson as U.S. secretary state,] now you have the appointment of someone who has made it an article of faith that the Iran deal needs to be ripped up.
Regional players need to push for a concrete, achievable agenda, with realistic expectations [ahead of the U.S.-North Korea summit].
There is a risk that the U.S. and North Korea will come together with unrealistic expectations, expecting that all will be achieved in a one and done meeting.
[Israel's Prime Minister] Netanyahu finds himself unable to voice opposition to [U.S. President] Trump despite some significant differences of opinion.
Following the first inter-Korean summit in ten years, the announcement that President Trump will meet North Korean leader Kim Jong-un is a promising sign. Although Pyongyang is unlikely to change its strategic course, the summit provides an opportunity for the U.S. to pair its maximum pressure with diplomacy and coordinate with Asian powers.
The Obama administration set out to create a future free of genocide. Does that future still have a chance?
Originally published in The Atlantic
The Trump administration should take advantage of the Games to promote a peaceful solution to the impasse with North Korea.
Originally published in Politico