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Middle East & North Africa

CrisisWatch Middle East & North Africa

CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, a tool designed to help decision-makers prevent deadly violence by keeping them up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace.

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Trends for Last Month June 2018

Deteriorated Situations


Improved Situations


Outlook for This Month July 2018

Conflict Risk Alerts


Resolution Opportunities


President's Take

Hopes and Fears in Protracted Wars


President & CEO

The June/July 2018 instalment of CrisisWatch features important updates on some of the world's longest-running conflicts. Our President Rob Malley finds optimism in Ethiopia and Eritrea; mixed omens in Afghanistan and Yemen; and dashed hope in Syria.

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Reports & Briefings

In The News

17 Jul 2018
Jusque-là, les Russes sont restés relativement passifs et ont laissé les Israéliens bombarder plusieurs positions en Syrie. Mais avec l’avancée significative de Bachar Al Assad, dans la région, leur calcul a changé, les Russes veulent rétablir la stabilité du régime. Ils pourraient bien considérer la prochaine frappe israélienne comme une violation du territoire syrien et, dans ce cas, les conséquences seront difficiles à prévoir. La Croix

Ofer Zalzberg

Senior Analyst, Israel/Palestine
15 Jul 2018
Fifteen years after the change of order in Iraq, it’s the same problem. The central government is unable or unwilling to address problems across the board in Iraq. The corruption is endemic, the government’s inability to deal with it is endemic, and the protests are endemic. The Telegraph

Joost Hiltermann

Program Director, Middle East and North Africa
9 Jul 2018
Trying to appropriate Iranian women’s discontent to advance regime change is a surefire way to undermine their cause. The more the Trump Administration tries to deepen Iran’s domestic fault lines, the more likely it is that the political élite will close ranks and bring down the iron fist. The New Yorker

Ali Vaez

Project Director, Iran
8 Jul 2018
We are entering a new stage of the relationship with Russia and Israel as it comes to Syria, and we will see more divergences. If Israel does not find a way to drive a wedge between the Iranians and the Syrians in the long term, then, whether in a few weeks, or a few months, the Iranians will return to south-west Syria. Financial Times

Ofer Zalzberg

Senior Analyst, Israel/Palestine
29 Jun 2018
[The last rebel stronghold in southwestern Syria] presented a problem for the regime and its Russian and Iranian backers. The presence of Iranian-backed militias in the region would be a red line for Israel. The Russians have therefore been looking for a way to negotiate a deal whereby the takeover of the south would be peaceful, with political agreement. As far as we can tell, this hasn’t come about yet, but may still be being negotiated. Asia Times

Joost Hiltermann

Program Director, Middle East and North Africa
23 Jun 2018
What's different today is that there is no expectation on the part of Hamas that if there were a big war today that it would result in Gaza or Hamas being in a better position in terms of the blockade. Telegraph

Nathan Thrall

Project Director, Arab-Israeli Conflict

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Our People

Joost Hiltermann

Program Director, Middle East and North Africa

Issandr El Amrani

Project Director, North Africa

Michaël Béchir Ayari

Senior Analyst, Tunisia

Noah Bonsey

Senior Analyst, Syria

Maria Fantappie

Former Senior Analyst, Iraq

April Longley Alley

Project Director, Gulf and Arabian Peninsula

Nathan Thrall

Project Director, Arab-Israeli Conflict

Ali Vaez

Project Director, Iran