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Middle East & North Africa

CrisisWatch Middle East & North Africa

CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, a tool designed to help decision-makers prevent deadly violence by keeping them up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace.

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Trends for Last Month August 2018

Deteriorated Situations

SyriaLibya

Improved Situations

none

Outlook for This Month September 2018

Conflict Risk Alerts

SyriaYemenLibya

Resolution Opportunities

Yemen

President's Take

15 Years of Tracking Conflict Worldwide

Contributor

President & CEO
Rob_Malley

This month we mark the fifteenth anniversary of our monthly global conflict tracker, CrisisWatch. In his introductory commentary, our President Rob Malley notes some examples of conflicts where CrisisWatch has continually pointed out both mounting costs and moments of possible resolution.

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Reports & Briefings

In The News

25 Sep 2018
The emphasis on coercion and pressure may find a receptive audience among U.S. regional allies, but is hardly going to lure the Iranians back to the table. Lowering tensions between Tehran and Washington is critical - but insults make any accommodation a less likely proposition. AFP

Ali Vaez

Project Director, Iran
23 Sep 2018
The UAE has positioned itself as a major potential investor in logistics, ports, and trade development [in the Horn of Africa.] Deutsche Welle

Elizabeth Dickinson

Senior Analyst, Arabian Peninsula
23 Sep 2018
The [U.S.] president is prepared to bluster and threaten, but he also wants to achieve the deal of the century. With North Korea, it worked because he had a willing partner. The problem he’s going to face with Iran is that the leaders there believe a meeting would validate his strategy The New York Times

Robert Malley

President & CEO
17 Sep 2018
A head-on attack against [Hayat Tahrir al-Sham] now or later would likely destabilize northwest [Syria], prompt a bloody and maybe inconclusive fight, and potentially set off retaliatory attacks inside Turkey. This is why the Turks are pushing so hard for something that approximates the status quo. Washington Post

Sam Heller

Senior Analyst, Non-state Armed Groups
13 Sep 2018
By punishing the Palestinians, the [Trump] administration unwittingly is liberating them from former restraints under which they had operated since Oslo in order to placate the U.S. and Israel. The New York Times

Robert Malley

President & CEO
12 Sep 2018
What is the reason [President] Netanyahu views a Palestinian state as a security risk? He thinks Palestinians will continue to teach their children that Zionism is unjust and that the state next door should not exist as a state for the Jewish people. The New York Times

Ofer Zalzberg

Senior Analyst, Israel/Palestine

Latest Updates

Op-Ed / United States

Trump’s Refugee Fiasco

The administration just slashed the number of refugees the U.S. will admit to a record low. Its reasoning doesn’t pass the laugh test.

Originally published in Politico

Is the Yemen Peace Process Coming Back to Life?

The UN special envoy to Yemen has invited the principal parties in the country’s civil war to Geneva for “consultations”. With the war rapidly approaching its fifth year, Crisis Group Consultant Peter Salisbury explains why any such Geneva talks are important and what should happen next.

Saving Idlib from Destruction

Numerous signs point to an imminent Syrian regime offensive to recapture Idlib, the largest remaining rebel-held area. To ward off another humanitarian calamity, Russia, Iran and Turkey should immediately convene talks to extend the truce and seek other ways of removing Idlib’s jihadist hard core.

Also available in العربية

After the Showdown in Libya’s Oil Crescent

A renewed struggle this summer over Libya’s main oil export zone cut sales in half, squeezing hard currency supplies amid outcry about mismanagement of hydrocarbon revenues. To build trust, Libyan and international actors should review public spending and move toward unifying divided financial institutions.

Also available in العربية

How Turkey’s Ties to the West May Survive the Syrian War

Crisis Group's Middle East & North Africa Program Director Joost Hiltermann participated in the 2018 Körber Policy Game, designed to explore possible outcomes in the event of a crisis between Turkey and the West in Syria. While the exercise underscored many of the Syrian conflict's complexities, it also revealed that a strong desire by stakeholders to find common ground can help overcome them.

Our People

Joost Hiltermann

Program Director, Middle East and North Africa
JoostHiltermann

Issandr El Amrani

Project Director, North Africa
boumilo

Michaël Béchir Ayari

Senior Analyst, Tunisia

Maria Fantappie

Consulting Analyst, Iraq

Claudia Gazzini

Senior Analyst, Libya

Nathan Thrall

Project Director, Arab-Israeli Conflict
nathanthrall

Ali Vaez

Project Director, Iran
AliVaez

Ofer Zalzberg

Senior Analyst, Israel/Palestine
OferZalzberg