Briefing

Chadians’ growing use of social media could prove a boon for the country’s political transition, but it could also fuel violence offline. With donor backing, authorities, civil society, online platforms and influencers should work to ensure social media remains a space for democratic debate rather than an accelerator of conflict.

L’utilisation croissante des réseaux sociaux au Tchad pourrait faciliter la transition politique, mais elle risque également d’attiser la violence. Avec le soutien des bailleurs, les autorités, la société civile, les plateformes en ligne et les influenceuses et influenceurs devraient s’assurer que les réseaux sociaux restent un espace de débat démocratique plutôt qu’un accélérateur de conflits.

Russia’s war in Ukraine is taking a terrible toll. The Western response nonetheless remains the right one. NATO capitals should continue supporting Kyiv, while avoiding direct conflict with Moscow and keeping the door open to talks.

Barring an eleventh-hour compromise, Lebanon will soon be without a president. An extended vacancy could stall action needed to ease the country’s economic crisis, risking unrest. With outside help, politicians should strive to avert this outcome – and to find ameliorative measures for the interim. 

ما لم يتم التوصل إلى تسوية في اللحظات الأخيرة، فإن لبنان سيغدو قريباً دون رئيس. ومن شأن حدوث شغور تطول مدته أن يعطل العمل الملحّ اللازم لتخفيف حدة الأزمة الاقتصادية في البلاد، والمخاطرة بحدوث اضطرابات. لذلك، ينبغي على السياسيين اللبنانين، وبمساعدة خارجية، أن يسعوا لتفادي هذه النتيجة - وأن يتوصلوا إلى إجراءات تحسينية مؤقتاً 

A pre-election standoff between Bosniaks and Croats in Bosnia and Herzegovina has taken an ugly turn, with rhetoric from the 1990s war reappearing. Ideally, politicians would make the reforms needed to settle the quarrel but, if not, the internationally appointed high representative should do so. 

Some seven million people are displaced inside Ukraine, many of them with no home to return to. The grassroots effort organised to help them is not sustainable. Donors should keep channelling aid to civil society but lay the groundwork for the state to step in.

Though hope is fading, the U.S. and Iran may still be able to revitalise the 2015 accord on Tehran’s nuclear program. Should they falter, they should pursue more modest interim goals rather than allow the risk of confrontation to grow.

رغم أن الأمل يتلاشى، فإن الولايات المتحدة وإيران قد تكونان ما تزلان قادرتين على إعادة إحياء اتفاق عام 2015 بشأن برنامج طهران النووي. وإذا تعثّرتا في ذلك، ينبغي أن تسعيا إلى تحقيق أهداف أكثر تواضعاً بدلاً من السماح بتنامي مخاطر حدوث مواجهة بينهما.

فرصت ایران و آمریکا برای احیای برجام هنوز به طور کامل از بین نرفته اما امید به توافق در حال کمرنگ شدن است. اگر مذاکرات به نتیجه نرسد، طرفین باید اهداف محدود و موقت را در دستور کار قرار دهند و زمینه را برای توافقی دیگر فراهم کنند، نه اینکه اجازه دهند خطر مقابله نظامی افزایش یابد.

Facing opprobrium after the 2021 coup, the junta in Naypyitaw has deepened its relationship with the Kremlin to relieve international pressure. Powers wishing to see Myanmar return to democracy should not try to break these ties but rather redouble their targeted sanctions and embargo efforts. 

面对 2021 年政变后的种种谴责，内比都军政府深化了与克里姆林宫的关系，以缓解国际压力。 希望看到缅甸恢复民主的外国政府不应试图打破这些联系，而应加倍实施有针对性的制裁和禁运的执行。 

Jair Bolsonaro, Brazil’s president, risks losing his October bid for re-election. If he disputes the result, his shrinking but increasingly far-right support base might take to the streets. State institutions should prepare to deal with baseless fraud accusations and to curb possible violence.

Jair Bolsonaro, presidente do Brasil, corre o risco de perder sua tentativa de reeleição em outubro. Se ele contestar o resultado, sua base de apoio - que está diminuindo em número mas alinhando-se cada vez mais à extrema-direita - pode sair às ruas. As instituições estatais devem se preparar para lidar com acusações infundadas de fraude e coibir possível violência.

El presidente de Brasil Jair Bolsonaro corre el riesgo de perder las elecciones de octubre. Si impugna el resultado, su base de apoyo, reducida pero cada vez más de extrema derecha, podría salir a las calles. Las instituciones del Estado deben estar preparadas para afrontar acusaciones de fraude infundadas y para frenar la posible violencia.

The 9 August presidential vote in Kenya pits the incumbent’s favourite against a populist challenger. It will be hard-fought. To avert the violence that has marred past contests, the two candidates should pledge to resolve any dispute in court. External actors can also help. 

Fighting in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo is intensifying, with Ugandan and Burundian soldiers in pursuit of rebels and Congolese insurgents on the rebound. With help from its allies, Kinshasa should step up diplomacy lest the country become a regional battleground once more.

Les combats s'intensifient dans l'est de la République démocratique du Congo, où des forces ougandaises et burundaises pourchassent des rebelles pendant qu’une insurrection congolaise renaît. Kinshasa, soutenue par ses alliés, devrait redoubler d’efforts diplomatiques pour éviter que le pays ne devienne à nouveau un champ de bataille régional.

Fresh clashes in and around Nagorno-Karabakh imperil the November 2020 ceasefire monitored by Russian peacekeepers. Even as they square off over Ukraine, Russia, Western powers and Turkey should endeavour to reach a quiet agreement on how to avert escalation in the South Caucasus.

The Thai government has restarted talks with the main insurgency in the country’s southernmost provinces. A quiet back channel helped the parties make progress – and reach a Ramadan ceasefire – while the official negotiations hosted by Malaysia paused. The parties should build on these achievements.

Armed opposition to Myanmar’s coup is spreading, leading the junta to mobilise civilian militias that, in turn, have set off a spate of reprisals. For now, informal justice meted out by local leaders is the best means of stopping the pattern from becoming self-sustaining.

反政变的武装势力日趋蔓延，导致缅甸军政府动员民兵组织。这或引发一系列的报复行动。以目前形势来看，由当地领袖执行的非正式司法程序是停止这个趋势持续的最好途径。

An ISIS franchise is tightening its hold on parts of north-eastern Nigeria near Lake Chad. Abuja should enhance its containment strategy, helping rival militants surrender, protecting internally displaced persons and working with neighbouring countries to cut off outside material support for the jihadists. 

Une franchise de l’EI a renforcé sa présence dans certaines parties du nord-est du Nigéria. Pour l’endiguer, Abuja devrait faciliter la démobilisation des insurgés de la faction rivale, protéger les déplacés et collaborer avec les pays voisins pour priver les jihadistes de tout soutien matériel extérieur.

Little has changed in the calculations of the main actors in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, despite the dramatic upsurge in violence almost a year ago. To prevent a reprise, outside powers should push for interim steps as they revisit the core assumptions of their diplomacy.

لم يتغير الكثير في حسابات اللاعبين الرئيسيين في الصراع الإسرائيلي-الفلسطيني، رغم الارتفاع الكبير في حدة العنف قبل عام تقريباً. لمنع تكرار ذلك، ينبغي على القوى الخارجية الدفع لاتخاذ خطوات مؤقتة ومراجعة الافتراضات الجوهرية التي ترتكز عليها دبلوماسيتها.

One of Mexican organised crime’s most lucrative businesses involves stealing petrol and selling it on the black market. Violence is rising along with profits. The government has curbed this trade but still needs to address the official collusion and socio-economic grievances that keep it going. 

Uno de los negocios más lucrativos para el crimen organizado en México consiste en robar combustible y venderlo en el mercado negro. La violencia, al igual que las ganancias, está en ascenso. El gobierno ha logrado frenar este comercio, pero debe hacer frente a la colusión oficial y los problemas socioeconómicos que lo perpetúan.

Discord about how to resolve a political impasse has once more put Libya in danger of fracturing in two. The priorities are for the camps to agree on a way forward and for outside powers to stay united in backing whatever peaceful option Libyans choose.

مرة أخرى، يضع الخلاف حول كيفية الخروج من مأزق سياسي ليبيا أمام خطر الانقسام إلى كيانين. وتتمثل الأولويات الآن في اتفاق المعسكرين على طريق إلى الأمام وأن تظل القوى الخارجية موحّدة في دعم أي خيار سلمي يتبناه الليبيون.