A decade of diplomacy, sanctions and nuclear brinkmanship involving Iran and the UN Security Council’s five permanent members (plus Germany) led to the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). This accord enshrined a core compromise that Crisis Group had advocated since 2003: acceptance of a limited, tightly monitored uranium enrichment program in Iran in return for that country’s reintegration into the global economy. Despite the JCPOA’s successful first years, the U.S. withdrew from the deal in 2018, putting it at risk of collapse while raising the danger of conflict between Tehran, Washington and their respective allies. Through field research and high-level advocacy, Crisis Group focuses on salvaging the JCPOA and preventing regional tensions from boiling over.
The killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran has brought the Middle East to its moment of greatest peril in years. All concerned must do their utmost to avoid regional war. The most important step, besides mutual restraint, is a Gaza ceasefire.
Supreme Leader threatened retaliation against Israel after Hamas political leader killed in Tehran, as confrontations between Iran-aligned groups and Israel/U.S. rose; reformist Masoud Pezeshkian took office as new president.
Tehran vowed revenge against Israel after killing of Hamas leader. Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh killed 31 July in capital Tehran, reportedly prompting rare emergency meeting of influential Supreme National Security Council. Iran immediately blamed operation on Israel. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei same day vowed “severe punishment”, said it was Tehran’s “duty” to avenge Haniyeh’s death as it had occurred on Iranian soil, fuelling fears of Iranian-led Axis of Resistance coalition-wide retaliation – loosely or closely coordinated – against Israel/U.S. in coming days and weeks.
Axis of Resistance launched strikes at Israeli, U.S. targets. Yemeni Houthis throughout month conducted regular drone and missile strikes against vessels in Red Sea, and 19 July struck Israel’s city Tel Aviv with drone, killing one; Israel next day retaliated with strike against Hodeida port. Amid daily cross-border exchanges between Israel and Hizbollah, including 27 July rocket strike on Israeli-occupied Golan Heights and 30 July Israeli air raid killing top Hizbollah commander, Iran repeatedly pledged support for Hizbollah in case of full-blown conflict. Series of drone and rocket attacks against bases hosting U.S. forces in Iraq and Syria in second half of July broke months-long lull in targeting of U.S. facilities there; Israel in July also intercepted multiple drones seemingly launched from Iraq (see Iraq, Israel/Palestine, Lebanon, Syria, Yemen).
Iran elected first reformist president in two decades. After second round of presidential election held 5 July, reformist candidate Masoud Pezeshkian secured presidency with 53.6% of vote and was inaugurated 30 July. Pezeshkian’s campaign emphasised political cohesion, less restrictive social and cultural policies, enhanced economic management and improved relations with West; hardline conservatives will likely push back on his ambitions to change status quo, however.
U.S. imposed more sanctions on Iran-linked entities and individuals. U.S. 12 July designated one Iranian entity for involvement in proliferation of weapons of mass destruction; 18 July sanctioned two individuals and five entities for being associated with Houthi financing networks; and 30 July sanctioned five individuals and seven entities for facilitating Iran’s missile and drones program.
The perception that Iran can neither protect its homeland nor its key allies could be fatal for the Iranian regime.
The next Iranian government … [is] not at all eager to rely on Russia and China for their economic needs, and they want sanctions relief.
The Islamic Republic has really focused on ideological conformity at the top rather than legitimacy from below.
Iran is more aggressive in the region, more repressive at home, and closer to the verge of nuclear weapons than ever before.
In this X space, Crisis Group's experts Ali Vaez and Stephen Pomper talk with Eran Etzion, Dana Stroul, and Danny Citrinowicz about the risks of all-out war between Iran and Israel and how this outcome can still be prevented.
Genuine pressure on Israel and Hamas to enact a Gaza cease-fire could dial down tensions across the region.
Originally published in Foreign Policy.
The Islamic Republic’s ninth president assumes office with an unenviable inheritance of domestic discontent, regional turmoil and poor relations with the West. He should work to bridge the state-society gap, while outside powers should test his administration's willingness to shift from an escalatory posture.
Iranians head to the polls on 28 June to choose a successor to the late president. In this Q&A, Crisis Group experts Ali Vaez and Naysan Rafati look at the field of candidates and the immediate tasks awaiting the winner.
Progress in restoring relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia has sputtered over a year after China brokered a rapprochement. To get it going again, the two states will need to contain disagreements while they work to advance in less political domains.
This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group’s experts Ali Vaez, Mairav Zonszein and Stephen Pomper about the Iranian president’s sudden death and the International Criminal Court prosecutor’s arrest warrants requests for Israeli and Hamas leaders.
A helicopter crash on 19 May killed Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, who many had thought was the likely successor to the Islamic Republic’s Supreme Leader. In this Q&A, Crisis Group experts Ali Vaez and Naysan Rafati look at the implications of Raisi’s sudden demise.
Tehran has concluded that a regional reordering is underway. The death of the president and foreign minister won’t change that.
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