After decades of insurgency, the Philippine government is making efforts to bring stability to the Bangsamoro, a majority-Muslim area in the country's south. In 2019, Manila granted the region self-rule, an important step on the road to peace, but the new autonomous entity faces challenges in managing the transition until parliamentary elections in 2025. Clashes still break out sporadically. Meanwhile, Manila's disputes with Beijing in the South China Sea continue, amid rising U.S.-Chinese strategic competition. Through field research and advocacy, Crisis Group works to support the Bangsamoro peace process and reduce maritime tensions in the Asia Pacific.
Tensions between China and the Philippines are increasing the risk of armed conflict in the South China Sea. In this excerpt from the Watch List 2024 – Spring Update, Crisis Group looks at how the EU can support regional diplomacy to mitigate maritime disputes.
Bangsamoro peace process stayed on track despite occasional violence; govt forces continued to conduct anti-communist operations.
Local insecurity persisted in Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM). Unidentified gunmen 2 Aug shot dead Roldan Benito, vice mayor of South Upi municipality in Maguindanao del Norte along with one of his security guards. Local media 6 Aug attributed incident to Benito’s role as Teduray tribal leader in resisting unlawful appropriation of native land by armed non-Teduray persons; Bangsamoro govt same day condemned incident terming it “a stark reminder of the challenges we face in our region”. Unidentified gunmen 18 Aug ambushed and killed village chairman and his wife in Sultan Kudarat town, Maguindanao del Norte; investigators suspected murder due to Mustapha’s involvement in anti-drug operation which disrupted local drug networks. Meanwhile, Supreme Court 20 Aug ordered election commission to stop plebiscite on BARMM which would have created two new municipalities in Maguindanao del Norte, and Nuling in Sultan Kudarat.
Anti-New People’s army operations continued. Soldiers 5-8 Aug clashed with communist rebels, resulting in ten New People’s Army (NPA) militant fatalities. Two NPA rebels 22 Aug died in gun battle with army. Clashes in Municipality of Valderrama in Antique province 24 Aug killed NPA rebel. National Security Advisor 14 Aug said NPA forces continued to plummet in numbers with only five remaining guerrilla fronts saying that govt aimed to eliminate NPA completely by 2024.
In another important development. Media outlet BBC 21 Aug reported ex-mayor of Bamban municipality fled Philippines after being accused of spying for China and having links with criminal groups.
Time has passed since the time of Martial Law, and if you look at the demographics, it is mostly older Filipinos who remember and are opposed to BBM.
Manila’s counter-insurgency campaign has whittled the Philippine communist rebellion down to a fraction of its former strength. But it has fallen short of ending the conflict. A negotiated peace preceded by confidence-building measures is the best way forward.
In this video Miriam Coronel-Ferrer reflects on the gains made and challenges that remain for the Bangsamoro region ten years after the 2014 peace agreement.
Village elections in the southern Philippines tend to be hard-fought and violent. Crisis Group expert Georgi Engelbrecht travelled there to understand what the most recent showdowns mean for regional polls scheduled for 2025 and for the peace process in an area historically racked by conflict.
As 2025 elections draw near in the Philippines’ newly autonomous Muslim-majority region, threats to the peace process have emerged. In this excerpt from the Watch List 2024, Crisis Group outlines what the EU can do to preserve its gains.
Despite its increasing focus on external threats, the Philippine government can’t afford to take the Bangsamoro peace process for granted.
The newly autonomous area in the southern Philippines is progressing toward full self-rule, but delays in the associated peace process and renewed skirmishes are causing concern. With donor support, regional and national authorities should work to bolster the transition in advance of crucial 2025 elections.
On 9 May, residents of the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao, part of the southern Philippines, voted in local elections. Organised in parallel to national polls, these contests pitted former rebels against powerful political clans, with an incomplete peace process hanging in the balance.
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