Bosna i Hercegovina: Redefiniranje međunarodne maöinerije
Bosna i Hercegovina: Redefiniranje međunarodne maöinerije
Table of Contents
  1. Executive Summary
Changing Dynamics in the Western Balkans
Changing Dynamics in the Western Balkans
Report 121 / Europe & Central Asia

Bosna i Hercegovina: Redefiniranje međunarodne maöinerije

Nakon öto je proölo öest godina i potroöeno nekoliko milijardi dolara, provedba mirovnog sporazuma u Bosni i Hercegovini daleko je od toga da bude zavröena.

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KRATAK PREGLED

Nakon öto je proölo öest godina i potroöeno nekoliko milijardi dolara, provedba mirovnog sporazuma u Bosni i Hercegovini daleko je od toga da bude zavröena. Redefiniranje (ërekalibracijaí, u lokalnim krugovima) prisustva međunarodne zajednice od vitalne je vaûnosti ukoliko se ûeli uspjeöno okončanje mirovnog procesa.

Ovo prisustvo rezultat je ad hoc öirenja nakon potpisivanja Daytonskog sporazuma u decembru 1995. Opterećuje je pet osnovnih problema: nepostojanje zajedničke strateöke vizije; nedostatak koordinacije na čelu međunarodne zajednice; dupliciranje napora i nedostatak komunikacije; sukobi ličnosti i različiti interesi među institucijama; te neefikasno vođenje ekonomske reforme.

Zasnovan na razgovorima sa velikim brojem međunarodnih i domaćih zvaničnika na mnogim nivoima u BiH, ovaj izvjeötaj daje analizu i procjenu trenutnih napora na reformi međunarodne zajednice. On se takođe zalaûe da oni koji sudjeluju u toj reformi postignu dogovor o sveobuhvatnom prijedlogu ñ koji bi se zasnivao na ëmodelu stubovaí koji postoji na Kosovu ñ a koji bi ne samo ozvaničili politički direktori Vijeća za implementaciju mira (Peace Implementation Council - PIC), na sljedećem sastanku Upravnog odbora koji će se odrûati u Briselu 6. decembra 2001., nego bi on označio i prekid sa zbrkama, nedosljednostima i polovičnim mjerama iz proölosti.

Reforma mora značiti viöe od pukog saûimanja, ili pak mijenjanja rasporeda sjedenja za stolom za kojim sjede glavni međunarodni predstavnici u Sarajevu. Ona mora, konačno, odraûavati jednu koherentnu strategiju, čiji je cilj da BiH izraste u stabilnu, funkcionalnu drûavu, sa jakom vladavinom zakona i izdrûljivim centralnim institucijama, koja je sposobna da se izbori za svoje članstvo u Evropskoj uniji (European Union - EU). Za to je potreban plan kako da se zaokruûi implementacija Daytonskog sporazuma, i to tako öto će se Bosni i Hercegovini dati institucije koje su joj potrebne da bi se pomenuta strategija provela u djelo. Jednog dana kada se proglasi da je implementacija Daytona konačno zavröena,ona će ustupiti mjesto tehničkim imperativima evropskih integracija.

Međutim, iznad svega, reforma mora prihvatiti činjenicu da ukoliko Bosna i Hercegovina ne moûe stati na sopstvene noge putem evolucije, tek uz povremeno gurkanje od strane Visokog predstavnika, ili pak putem nekog dogovorenog ustavnog aranûmana, onda međunarodna zajednica mora biti spremna da nametne funkcionalniji i demokratičniji model od onog koji je predvidio Dayton. To bi moglo značiti stvaranje jake ali i öiroko zastupljene centralne vlade, raöčiöćavanje kontraproduktivnih entitetskih i kantonalnih struktura, delegiranje bitnih ovlasti opötinama, te stvaranje krajnje depolitiziranih struktura za regionalnu upravu. Nije prerano da Upravni odbor PIC-a započne razgovore o post-Daytonskim strukturama.

Sada je ključni faktor vrijeme. Međunarodna zajednica treba da iskoristi opredjeljenost postojećeg bosanskohercegovačkog vrha za partnerstvo, i da donese pozitivne promjene. Na taj način Bosancima će dati neöto pozitivno za öta će moći glasati na izborima sljedeće godine, i spriječiti da 2003. mora počinjati sve iz početka, sa malo manje kooperativnim političarima.

Sarajevo/Brisel, 29. novembar 2001.

After six years and billions of dollars spent, peace implementation in Bosnia and Herzegovina remains far from complete. Reshaping (‘recalibrating’, in local jargon) the international community (IC) presence is vital if the peace process is to have a successful outcome.

This presence is the result of ad hoc expansion since the Dayton Agreement was signed in December 1995.  It is beset by five main problems: lack of a shared strategic vision; uncoordinated leadership; duplication and lack of communication; personality clashes and cross-cutting institutional interests; and ineffectual management of economic reform. 

Based on interviews with scores of international and local officials at many levels in Bosnia, this report analyses and assesses the current exercise in IC reform. It urges those involved to agree on a comprehensive proposal – based on the Kosovo ‘pillar model’ – that can not only be endorsed by the Peace Implementation Council (PIC) Political Directors at the next Steering Board meeting in Brussels on 6 December 2001, but which will mark a break with the muddle, inconsistency and half-measures of the past.

Reform must amount to more than just downsizing, or changing the seating plan at the international top table in Sarajevo. It must reflect a coherent strategy, finally, to make Bosnia a stable, viable state with a robust rule of law and enduring central institutions, capable of making its way towards membership in the European Union (EU). This requires a plan to complete the implementation of the Dayton Agreement by equipping Bosnia with the institutions it needs to fulfil the strategy. Once declared complete, Dayton implementation can yield to the technical imperatives of European integration.

Above all, however, the reform must acknowledge that if Bosnia cannot be put on its feet by evolution, nudged along by the High Representative, or by some negotiated constitutional settlement, then the IC must be ready to impose a more workable and democratic model than Dayton envisaged. This could involve creating a strong but fully representative central government, clearing away the counterproductive entity and cantonal structures, devolving substantial powers to the municipalities, and designing largely depoliticised structures for regional administration. It is not too soon for the PIC Steering Board to start consultations on post-Dayton structures.

Time is now of the essence.  The IC should take advantage of the current Bosnian leadership’s commitment to partnership in effecting positive change, and give Bosnians something positive to vote for in next year’s elections, rather than find itself starting again with less amenable politicians in 2003.

Sarajevo/Brussels, 29 November 2001

Changing Dynamics in the Western Balkans

This week on War & Peace, Olga Oliker talks to Crisis Group expert Marko Prelec about the precarious situation in the Western Balkans, as Serb separatism in Bosnia and Herzegovina, and the frozen Kosovo-Serbia dispute continue to stoke regional instability.

The Western Balkans, a region defined in part by not being in the European Union, also contains several countries that were devastated by war in the 1990s. Now it faces new troubles, driven in part by the legacies of the old. Bosnia and Herzegovina is confronted with calls for secession in the autonomous Serb-dominated region, Republika Srpska, as well as the ongoing electoral grievances of its Croat minority. Meanwhile, efforts to resolve Kosovo’s dispute with Serbia over its independence have come to a standstill, leaving minority communities on both sides of the border vulnerable.

This week on War & Peace, Olga Oliker talks to Marko Prelec, Crisis Group’s Consulting Senior Analyst for the Balkans, about why ethnic tensions persist in the region and whether there is any risk of a return to conflict. They discuss the prospects for European integration, asking whether the promise of EU membership remains an effective incentive for resolving these longstanding disputes. They also consider what impact Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has had for stability in the Western Balkans, a region where painful memories of war are still very salient today.



Click here to listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.

For more of Crisis Group’s analysis, make sure to check out our Balkans regional page and keep an eye out for our upcoming report on the risk of instability in the Western Balkans.

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