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Europe & Central Asia

CrisisWatch Europe & Central Asia

CrisisWatch is a monthly early warning bulletin designed to provide a regular update on the state of the most significant situations of conflict around the world.

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Trends for Last Month September 2017

Deteriorated Situations

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Improved Situations

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Outlook for This Month October 2017

Conflict Risk Alerts

Spain

Resolution Opportunities

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Reports & Briefings

In The News

13 Oct 2017
If mishandled, [Kyrgyzstan's] election could shatter [the country's] facade of democracy. A fragile stability is at stake. AFP

Deirdre Tynan

Project Director, Central Asia
21 Apr 2017
This society [in Chechnya and the mostly Muslim areas of the Caucasus region] is highly homophobic. Homosexuality is condemned. It is believed Islam considers it a great sin. The New York Times

Ekaterina Sokirianskaia

Former Project Director, Russia & North Caucasus
17 Apr 2017
Regardless of their actual views on the constitutional changes, Erdoğan's supporters feel the need to support him after the coup. Vox

Berkay Mandıracı

Analyst, Turkey
12 Apr 2017
The chances for the potential escalation [of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict] are very high. And the conflict will be more deadly this time, since both sides know each other’s capabilities Institute for War & Peace Reporting

Magdalena Grono

Program Director, Europe & Central Asia
7 Apr 2017
There is no durable military solution to Turkey's PKK conflict. Peace talks between Ankara and the PKK are the only way forward for a durable solution. Reuters

Nigar Göksel

Project Director, Turkey
1 Apr 2017
[There were] numerous, numerous signals [about detentions and violence toward gay men in Chechnya]. It came from too many sources not to be true. The New York Times

Ekaterina Sokirianskaia

Former Project Director, Russia & North Caucasus

Latest Updates

Op-Ed / Europe & Central Asia

Rare summit meeting on Nagorno-Karabakh peace

A rare meeting between the presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan on 16 October 2017 could lead to a breakthrough. But the two countries have very different ideas on how to reconcile their competing narratives and goals in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.

Originally published in JAM News

Also available in Հայերեն, Русский
Commentary / Asia

The Twists and Turns along China’s Belt and Road

China’s trillion-dollar Belt and Road Initiative could potentially transform relations with over 60 countries across Eurasia, Africa and beyond. But to bring the concept to fruition, Beijing must overcome mammoth logistical obstacles, navigate fragile political situations and placate growing regional apprehension surrounding its ambitions.

Also available in 简体中文

In Ireland, Israel’s Religious Right Engages with Ideas for Peace

Our Israel Senior Analyst Ofer Zalzberg joins nine leaders of Israel’s national religious community as they seek ideas for peace in meetings with the architects of Northern Ireland’s peace process. Unexpectedly, he finds the trip inspires subtle shifts in their thinking – and in his own.

Quick Fixes Won’t Block Libya’s People Smugglers for Long

A recent dramatic decrease in migrants reaching Europe may be partly explained by payoffs to armed groups in Libya. In this Q&A, Crisis Group’s Senior Analyst for Libya, Claudia Gazzini, warns about the risks associated with this policy, arguing that while working with armed groups may be necessary in the short term, any durable solution requires putting Libya’s economy and politics back on track.

Ukraine’s New Diplomatic Battlefronts: U.S. Weapons, UN Peacekeepers

The front lines between the Ukrainian army and Moscow-backed forces in eastern Ukraine may be static but see frequent and violent firefights. Diplomatic manoeuvering over new U.S. lethal weapons for Kyiv risks aggravating the conflict and Russia’s UN peacekeeping proposal could prove a distraction from a genuine solution.

Our People

Magdalena Grono

Program Director, Europe & Central Asia

Deirdre Tynan

Project Director, Central Asia
DeirdreTynan

Alçay Akay

Office Manager, Turkey

Alina Dalbaeva

Analyst, Central Asia
alinadalbaeva

Nurjan Ernesova

Office Manager, Bishkek

Nigar Göksel

Project Director, Turkey
nigargoksel

Berkay Mandıracı

Analyst, Turkey
BerkayMANDIRACI

Ekaterina Sokirianskaia

Former Project Director, Russia & North Caucasus