Europe & Central Asia

Following a successful Ukrainian counteroffensive, Russia is escalating its war in Ukraine. Yet developments on the ground show that NATO members’ approach to date – supporting Kyiv while avoiding a direct clash with Moscow – is fundamentally sound. The West should stay the course.

This week on Hold Your Fire! Richard Atwood talks to Crisis Group’s UN Director Richard Gowan about the state of the UN as world leaders meet for General Assembly week, and also catches up with Europe and Central Asia Program Director Olga Oliker about the latest from Ukraine and violence on the Armenia-Azerbaijan border.

In this video, Crisis Group analysts Simon Schlegel and Azadeh Moaveni sit down in Warsaw to discuss the mass movement of Ukrainians following the start of the Ukraine-Russia war, and how the situation could become more precarious in winter.

Several soldiers have been killed in clashes between Azerbaijani troops and ethnic Armenian forces answering to the de facto authorities in Nagorno-Karabakh, raising fears of escalation. Crisis Group experts Olesya Vartanyan, Zaur Shiriyev and Anita Mihaeljana explain what can be done to safeguard the ceasefire.

Facing opprobrium after the 2021 coup, the junta in Naypyitaw has deepened its relationship with the Kremlin to relieve international pressure. Powers wishing to see Myanmar return to democracy should not try to break these ties but rather redouble their targeted sanctions and embargo efforts. 

As Russia’s war in Ukraine grinds on, and reports of atrocities mount, many are calling on the U.S. to list the Kremlin as a state sponsor of terrorism. The costs of this risky step would greatly outweigh any benefits.

Months of diplomacy have yielded a set of agreements allowing Ukraine to export grain via the Black Sea. In this Q&A, Crisis Group experts assess gains from the accord, which could be significant even if it does not by itself push down global food prices.

War has displaced more than six million people inside Ukraine, in addition to the refugees who have fled across borders. More action is needed, not just to meet their basic needs, but also to develop a long-term humanitarian assistance strategy.

Six months of contacts between Türkiye and Armenia have brought an agreement to move toward opening their shared border and launching direct trade. But Ankara and Yerevan are far apart on many issues. The road ahead will be long.