This week on War & Peace, Olga Oliker and Hugh Pope are joined by veteran Turkish diplomat Ambassador Selim Yenel for a close look at Turkey’s newly assertive regional policy and how to get key relationships with allies in Europe and the U.S. back on track.
Originally published in Chatham House
Ukraine
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President's Take
In his introduction to this month’s edition of CrisisWatch, Crisis Group's President Robert Malley reflects on the once-unimaginable scenes that unfolded in the U.S. Capitol last night, as a mob violently stormed the building. He also explains how we choose our ten conflicts to watch each year.
Russian mediation succeeded in ending the six-week war in Nagorno-Karabakh but left much unresolved, chiefly the region’s future status. If the cessation of hostilities is to become a sustainable peace, the parties should start by cooperating on humanitarian relief and trade before tackling larger questions.
As elections draw near, increased tension at the line of separation with South Ossetia has helped put the future of normalisation with Russia in doubt. But whoever wins at the polls should not abandon dialogue, but rather build on it to frankly discuss these problems.
Years of conflict have exacerbated the economic woes of Donbas, once an industrial powerhouse. Authorities in Kyiv should take steps now to aid pensioners and encourage small trade while also planning ahead for the region’s eventual reintegration with the rest of the country.
Ceasefires in Ukraine's Donbas repeatedly fray because no side is fully invested in peace. Until the sides can agree on a long-term political solution, they should focus on protecting civilians through carefully targeted sectoral disengagements. If this facilitates peacemaking, so much the better.
Fighting in July interrupted what had been a stretch of relative quiet on the Armenia-Azerbaijan border. The incidents underscored how quickly and unexpectedly this front can erupt. The two countries should take better advantage of a hotline created in 2018 to avoid dangerous misunderstandings.
Turkey, like many countries, must figure out how to handle thousands of citizens coming home from jihadist battlefields abroad. None has mounted a domestic attack since 2017, but the danger is not gone. Authorities should consider adding enhanced social programs to their law-and-order approach.
Drones have enabled [Turkey] to drive the PKK out of mountainous pockets where they had established a significant presence.
This is a more serious escalation [over Nagorno-Karabakh], much better prepared, with more troops, and happening simultaneously on all parts of the front line.
Sanctions send a signal to Belarus and the international community of EU states’ frustration with a fraudulent election.
We are a step away from a large-scale war (between Armenia and Azerbaijan).
It seems that what is left of ISIS networks now is that they are getting organized in smaller groups of five or six people who may not be connected to each other even.
The Kurdish leadership has every reason to suspect that Russia will not push Damascus to accept anything that Turkey might interpret as protecting or legitimizing the YPG.
This week on War & Peace, Olga Oliker and Hugh Pope are joined by former French Ambassador to the U.S. and the UN Gérard Araud to discuss today’s big geopolitical challenges – and Europe’s role in defining them – as President-elect Biden takes the reins in Washington.
This week on War & Peace, Olga Oliker interviews co-host Hugh Pope about the updated edition of his book, Dining with Al Qaeda, and how he thinks it helps make sense of the Middle East today. They also reflect on the highs and lows of the year of the pandemic.
Is the glass half full or half empty? Germany's tenure on the UN Security Council in review.
Originally published in Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung
On War & Peace this week, former NATO Deputy Secretary-General Rose Gottemoeller joins Olga and Hugh to examine whether the alliance, 70 years into its conflict prevention mission, can still contend with the defence challenges of today and tomorrow, both internally and as an actor on the world stage.
This week on Hold Your Fire!, Rob Malley and guest host Richard Atwood talk about the ceasefire in Nagorno-Karabakh with Crisis Group’s Europe Program Director Olga Oliker and examine Myanmar’s identity crisis with Crisis Group expert Richard Horsey.
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