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Europe & Central Asia

CrisisWatch Europe & Central Asia

CrisisWatch is a monthly early warning bulletin designed to provide a regular update on the state of the most significant situations of conflict around the world.

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Trends for Last Month May 2017

Deteriorated Situations

Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan)

Improved Situations


Outlook for This Month June 2017

Conflict Risk Alerts

Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan)

Resolution Opportunities


Reports & Briefings

In The News

21 Apr 2017
This society [in Chechnya and the mostly Muslim areas of the Caucasus region] is highly homophobic. Homosexuality is condemned. It is believed Islam considers it a great sin. The New York Times

Ekaterina Sokirianskaia

Project Director, Russia & North Caucasus
17 Apr 2017
Regardless of their actual views on the constitutional changes, Erdoğan's supporters feel the need to support him after the coup. Vox

Berkay Mandıracı

Analyst, Turkey
12 Apr 2017
The chances for the potential escalation [of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict] are very high. And the conflict will be more deadly this time, since both sides know each other’s capabilities Institute for War & Peace Reporting

Magdalena Grono

Program Director, Europe & Central Asia
7 Apr 2017
There is no durable military solution to Turkey's PKK conflict. Peace talks between Ankara and the PKK are the only way forward for a durable solution. Reuters

Nigar Göksel

Project Director, Turkey
1 Apr 2017
[There were] numerous, numerous signals [about detentions and violence toward gay men in Chechnya]. It came from too many sources not to be true. The New York Times

Ekaterina Sokirianskaia

Project Director, Russia & North Caucasus
11 Mar 2017
Turkey has always set the Euphrates as a red line [for Kurdish forces in Syria]. The problem is it will be a huge gamble to really do that with US, Russia and YPG, who are a proficient fighting force. AP

Noah Bonsey

Senior Analyst, Syria

Latest Updates

The US joins the Turkey-PKK fight in northern Syria

Directly arming one mainly Kurdish faction in Syria makes U.S. partly responsible for the fate of Syria’s Kurds. Given Ankara’s bitter opposition to the group, Washington should push its Kurdish partner to focus on regional autonomy in Syria, not its insurgency in Turkey.

Originally published in Middle East Eye

The PKK’s Fateful Choice in Northern Syria

The Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) and its Syrian affiliates face a stark choice: risk their gains in northern Syria through continued prioritisation of the PKK's fight against Turkey, or pursue local self-rule in the area they have carved out of the chaos of the Syrian war.

Also available in العربية, Türkçe

The Western Balkans: Fragile Majorities

Political instability keeps growing in the Western Balkans amid geopolitical contests and increased tensions with Russia. In this excerpt from the Watch List 2017 – First Update early-warning report for European policy makers, Crisis Group urges the European Union and its member states to engage intensively to ensure the political space for avoiding more serious crisis does nto entirely vanish in the Western Balkans.

Not Just Talking About Peace, but Finding a Way There

Six months into research fellowships made possible by Canadian philanthropist and Crisis Group Trustee Frank Giustra, we catch up with the three young experts now working with our Europe, Africa and Middle East teams. Olesya Vartanyan is specialising on her native South Caucasus.

Our People

Magdalena Grono

Program Director, Europe & Central Asia

Deirdre Tynan

Project Director, Central Asia

Alçay Akay

Office Manager, Turkey

Alina Dalbaeva

Analyst, Central Asia

Nurjan Ernesova

Office Manager, Bishkek

Nigar Göksel

Project Director, Turkey

Berkay Mandıracı

Analyst, Turkey

Ekaterina Sokirianskaia

Project Director, Russia & North Caucasus