Events on the Korean peninsula are among the most dramatic on the world stage. Amid cycles of rapprochement and disaffection between North and South, relations between Pyongyang and Washington careen back and forth from bellicosity to detente. At stake are not just North Korea’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs but also peace and security in North East Asia. China, the North’s most important ally, has cooperated in enforcing strict sanctions in an attempt to temper its partner’s bravado. But ultimately it prefers the status quo to the instability that would follow radical change. Crisis Group works to decrease the risk of war on the peninsula while advocating for creative solutions for all parties to implement as they pursue their long-term goals.
Russia used its Security Council veto to terminate a UN panel monitoring sanctions on North Korea, complicating efforts to contain Pyongyang’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs. In this Q&A, Crisis Group experts Christopher Green, Richard Gowan and Maya Ungar delve into the consequences.
Washington and Seoul signed new nuclear deterrence deal prompting condemnation from Pyongyang.
U.S. and South Korea entered nuclear deterrence pact. U.S. and South Korean defence officials 11 July signed joint nuclear deterrence guidelines on sidelines of NATO summit, Washington, D.C., reaffirming U.S. commitment to defend South Korea using all available capabilities, including nuclear weapons. U.S. President Biden and South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol authorised guidelines, while commending “tremendous progress” since establishment of joint Nuclear Consultative Group. Meanwhile, North Korean Defence Ministry 13 July warned that “hostile states” would “pay an unimaginably harsh price” for increased nuclear cooperation; in response, South Korean Defence Ministry next day said that North Korean regime “will not survive after using nuclear weapons”.
Cross-border tensions continued. South Korea 18 July resumed broadcasting K-pop songs, news and other messages critical of North Korea on loudspeakers at major sections of inter-Korean border, 21 July further expanded operations; responses occurred as more North Korean trash-filled balloons flew around capital city, Seoul.
In other important developments. South Korean newspaper 16 July reported that senior North Korean diplomat Counselor Ri Il-gyu defected in Nov 2023, citing his “disillusionment” and “bleak future” under northern regime. Meanwhile, New York grand jury 16 July indicted former CIA analyst and prominent North Korea expert Sue Mi Terry for failing to register as South Korean foreign agent; case fuelled broader concerns in Washington and Seoul about security of classified information and integrity of individuals handling such sensitive data.
We are in a situation where North Korea can rely on Russia and China more than has been the case in decades.
Politics is a full-contact sport in South Korea and there is no sign of any sort of balanced politics at the moment.
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has announced that he will no longer support the longstanding goal of eventually reunifying the two Koreas. The change of position, coupled with Kim’s flexing of his country’s military muscle, has troubling implications for the Korean peninsula’s stability.
On 31 May, Pyongyang tried – and failed – to send a military reconnaissance satellite into space. In this Q&A, Crisis Group expert Chris Green explains why it took this action and what can be done to keep regional tensions from rising.
On 9 March, South Koreans voted a conservative, Yoon Suk-yeol, into the presidency to replace the left-leaning Moon Jae-in. Yoon has taken a harder rhetorical line than his predecessor toward Pyongyang. But a dramatic shift in North Korea policy is unlikely.
Pyongyang’s string of missile tests at the turn of 2022 indicates its discontent with how diplomacy has sputtered on the Korean peninsula since the 2019 summit. Fresh overtures may fall short of bringing it back to the table, but they are worth a try.
The latest five-day plenum of North Korea’s ruling party focused on food insecurity, chief among the nation’s challenges. With the pandemic not yet tamed and other uncertainty on the international scene, Pyongyang may continue refraining from major provocations into 2022, but for how long is unclear.
North and South Korea have recently staged displays of military prowess, causing some to worry about an accelerating arms race. But both countries were playing politics. Any uptick in tensions is likely to come after the Beijing Olympics and South Korean elections in March 2022.
On 24 June, Pyongyang abruptly stopped threats it had been making at Seoul for weeks, although the underpinnings of inter-Korean friction remain. Peninsular tensions could stay on simmer or escalate depending on how the parties manage an uncertain time before the U.S. election.
Two years have passed since U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un's historic Singapore summit. But nuclear diplomacy remains stuck and the 2018 June Singapore Joint Statement has not been implemented. The coronavirus pandemic and U.S. presidential elections in November might convince both capitals to kick the can down the road until next year, at the earliest. But Pyongyang's nuclear weapons capability continues to advance without restrictions.
Receive the best source of conflict analysis right in your inbox.
This site uses cookies. By continuing to browse the site you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Review our privacy policy for more details.