CrisisWatch

Tracking Conflict Worldwide

CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.

Global Overview

Outlook for This Month May 2024

Conflict Risk Alerts

Resolution Opportunities

Trends for Last Month April 2024

Improved Situations

Conflict in Focus

Our monthly conflict tracker highlights four conflict risks in May. 

  • Israel continued its war in Gaza, bringing the death toll since 7 October to over 34,500 Palestinians. Famine in Gaza’s north is shaping up to be the world’s worst relative to population size of the past few decades. Israeli leaders reiterated their threat to invade Rafah city, which could kill or again displace many of the more than one million Palestinians who have sought refuge there.
     
  • Lebanon continued to face the spectre of all-out war as deadly cross-border hostilities between Israel and Hizbollah expanded in scope and severity.
     
  • Fears of all-out intercommunal conflict in Sudan’s North Darfur escalated as the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces and Darfuri armed groups prepared for war and the Sudanese Armed Forces intensified bombings of Arab areas. 
     
  • In Myanmar, ethnic armed groups in the south east, west and north inflicted battlefield setbacks on the regime, highlighting the extent of the regime’s weakness and setting the stage for further hostilities in May. Communal tensions escalated in Rakhine state, foreshadowing potential violence, including against civilians.

CrisisWatch identified ten deteriorated situations in April. Notably:

  • An Israeli airstrike on an Iranian consular facility in Syria triggered the first ever direct military confrontation between Iran and Israel, as Tehran launched hundreds of drones and missiles in a retaliatory attack on Israeli territory (see this month’s Conflict in Focus).
     
  • Tensions surged in Mali as the government suspended the political activities of all political parties and associations, while announcing elections would not be held until the country regained stability.
     
  • In Ethiopia, clashes erupted between Tigray and Amhara forces in disputed territories, displacing tens of thousands.
     
  • The Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) dissident group known as EMC fractured, plunging negotiations with the Colombian government into uncertainty and fuelling fears of violent escalation.
     
  • In Bangladesh, a surge in attacks by an ethnic armed group, the Kuki-Chin National Front, in the Chittagong Hill Tracts derailed nascent peace talks and prompted a major operation by security forces.
     
  • Security forces in Georgia cracked down on protesters opposing the ruling party’s reintroduction of its controversial “foreign agents” legislation.
     

Our tracker also assessed one improved situation.

  • Venezuela’s opposition coalition rallied behind little-known retired diplomat Edmundo González as its candidate to take on President Maduro, raising hopes for a more competitive election in July.

Aside from the scores of conflict situations we regularly assess, we tracked significant developments in the Armenia-Azerbaijan Conflict, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Gabon, Mauritania, Moldova, South Africa and Togo.

Colombia