Years of deadlock between the two main political parties, the Awami League and the opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party, have caused governance breakdowns, narrowed political debate, eroded the rule of law and widened social divisions. The continued threat of jihadist violence exacerbates these problems. Meanwhile, Bangladesh struggles to accommodate the presence of an estimated one million Rohingya refugees from Myanmar, whose return appears unlikely any time soon. Crisis Group aims to reduce conflict risks, including the spread of militancy, arising from political stagnation; to promote inclusive and accountable democratic institutions; and to urge adequate assistance for the refugees until conditions allow for safe return.
Interim government under Yunus is off to a promising start but must tackle entrenched interests.
After anti-govt protests prompted PM Hasina to flee country, calm returned as new interim government took over; scores of Rohingyas sought safety in country’s south east.
Amid heightened violence, PM Hasina fled to India. Anti-govt protests early Aug resumed after curfew was eased and internet partially resumed, leading to around 100 people 4 Aug killed during crackdown. As army refused to enforce curfew and protests persisted, PM Hasina 5 Aug resigned, fled to India. In subsequent days, several hundred more people were killed, many in reprisal attacks against ruling Awami League (AL) party supporters. Minorities, particularly Hindus, were also targeted, although most attacks seemed politically motivated – due to AL links – rather than religiously motivated.
Nobel Laureate Muhammad Yunus appointed as interim leader. Acting press secretary 7 Aug announced decision to name Muhammad Yunus as chief advisor after talks between student protest organisers, military leaders, and civil society actors. Interim govt 8 Aug took oath as Yunus appointed most diverse cabinet in Bangladesh’s history, including student leaders, human rights activist and former diplomats. Yunus pledged to undertake “meaningful and deep reforms”, saying that free and fair elections would be held after interim govt fulfils mandate of carrying out necessary reforms. Thus far, interim govt has replaced heads of Supreme Court and Bangladesh Bank and detained former members of Hasina’s govt for corruption and murder investigations; 29 Aug signed convention on enforced disappearances. While public optimism for interim govt is strong, Yunus faces considerable obstacles for reform without mandate to pass laws or amend constitution. Opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party is backing interim govt but has called for timeline on elections.
Intense fighting in Myanmar’s Rakhine state forced hundreds to flee. Arakan Army (AA)’s escalating attacks against regime forces in northern Rakhine state’s Maungdaw town killed scores and prompted some Rohingyas to try and reach Bangladesh. Notably, drone attack 5 Aug killed up to 200 Rohingya civilians who attempted to cross Naf river into Bangladesh (see Myanmar). NGO Médecins Sans Frontières 9 Aug reported spike in arrivals of war-wounded Rohingya civilians from Myanmar; authorities 9 Aug said they recovered 34 bodies from Naf River after boat 6 Aug capsized.
[For Bangladesh's army] to have sided with Hasina at this juncture would have tarnished their image massively.
The quota protest [in Bangladesh] is just the manifestation of a widespread malaise that’s not just about quotas but also economic and political.
With no real alternative at the ballot box, discontented Bangladeshis have few options besides street protests to make their voices heard.
There is a risk of increased violence after the polls [in Bangladesh].
The election will not resolve Bangladesh’s political crisis … Since the 2008 election … the country has not held a credible national election.
You might ask ‘why would the military be interested in negotiating to take them [Rohingya refugees] back when it was the one that forced them to leave for the military re...
After fifteen years in power, Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina fled the country following a month of protests in which over 300 people were killed. The army should prevent reprisal killings, and the soon-to-be-formed interim government should investigate abuses and begin rebuilding democracy.
Mass unrest has rocked Bangladesh in July, as students and others demonstrate against quotas for state jobs, and the government responds with deadly repression. In this Q&A, Crisis Group Asia Director Pierre Prakash explains what is behind the turmoil.
Bangladesh is heading into general elections with the opposition sitting out the vote after staging major protests. With dissatisfaction growing among the public, the ruling party and its rivals should hold negotiations to curb the risk of further turmoil.
In this online event, our panellists provide insight into the conditions Rohingya refugees face in Bangladesh and other host countries.
Nearly a million Rohingya remain stuck in Bangladesh, with little hope of going home soon, as violence rises in the camps and international agencies trim their assistance. Donors should scale the aid back up, while Dhaka should modify its approach to allow for long-term planning.
This edition includes entries on Bangladesh, DR Congo, Ethiopia and Somaliland, offering a snapshot into emergent conflicts and crises in the next three to six months in a clear, accessible format, identifying triggers, key dates to watch and potential behaviour of conflict actors, to support global conflict prevention efforts.
The Rohingya refugee crisis in Bangladesh looks set to drag on indefinitely. Insecurity in the overcrowded camps is growing. In this excerpt from the Watch List 2023 – Autumn Update, Crisis Group urges Europe to keep providing humanitarian assistance and increase its intake of refugees.
In August 2017, the Myanmar military launched a brutal crackdown on Rohingya Muslims in Rakhine State. Hundreds of thousands fled and are now living in refugee camps in Bangladesh. In this Q&A, Crisis Group expert Thomas Kean explains why prospects for near-term repatriation remain low.
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