A pre-election standoff between Bosniaks and Croats in Bosnia and Herzegovina has taken an ugly turn, with rhetoric from the 1990s war reappearing. Ideally, politicians would make the reforms needed to settle the quarrel but, if not, the internationally appointed high representative should do so.
Tensions escalated between High Representative and Bosnian Serb leader over proposed changes to election law, with latter threatening to paralyse state-level decision-making.
Crisis erupted days after European Council 21 March approved opening of formal negotiations with Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) to join bloc. High Representative Christian Schmidt, responsible for overseeing implementation of Dayton peace accords, 26 March imposed changes to state-level Election Law, designed to clamp down on fraud and abuse. In response, Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik 28 March threatened to paralyse decision-making in BiH and withdraw from armed forces and other state organs unless number of demands are met, including withdrawal of legislation within seven days and expulsion of Schmidt from country, alongside UK, German and U.S. ambassadors. Republika Srpska lawmakers 29 March subsequently adopted their own version of election law, which Dodik said would come into force on 16 April if demands not met. U.S. Embassy in capital Sarajevo same day condemned move, warning law would “usurp state-level competencies and create a parallel electoral system” and accused Dodik of launching “direct attack on the state structure of Bosnia and Herzegovina”.
This week on War & Peace, Olga Oliker and Elissa Jobson speak with Marko Prelec, Crisis Group’s senior consulting analyst for the Balkans, about the elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bosnia’s persisting political divisions and where the country might be headed next.
This week on War & Peace, Olga Oliker talks to Crisis Group expert Marko Prelec about the precarious situation in the Western Balkans, as Serb separatism in Bosnia and Herzegovina, and the frozen Kosovo-Serbia dispute continue to stoke regional instability.
Crisis Group’s Watch List identifies ten countries or regions at risk of deadly conflict or escalation thereof in 2022. In these places, early action, driven or supported by the EU and its member states, could enhance prospects for peace and stability.
Trust between Bosnia and Herzegovina’s politicians has broken down following threats from Serb leader Milorad Dodik, the most serious challenge since the 1995 Dayton Accords. In this excerpt from the Watch List 2022, Crisis Group urges the EU and its member states to mediate the dispute between Bosniak and Croat leaders while supporting an inclusive constitutional reform to reduce the risk of violence.
This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood and Naz Modirzadeh talk to Balkans expert Marko Prelec about the twin crises facing Bosnia’s multi-ethnic state. They ask if Serbian secessionism and a Croat election boycott could lead to the country’s unravelling a quarter-century after its civil war.
The chief international representative in Bosnia has warned the country may break apart if Bosnian Serbs continue moving toward secession and Bosniaks and Croats do not resolve an electoral dispute. In this Q&A, Crisis Group experts Marko Prelec and Ashish Pradhan explain the two-pronged crisis.
Political instability keeps growing in the Western Balkans amid geopolitical contests and increased tensions with Russia. In this excerpt from the Watch List 2017 – First Update early-warning report for European policy makers, Crisis Group urges the European Union and its member states to engage intensively to ensure the political space for avoiding more serious crisis does nto entirely vanish in the Western Balkans.
The Balkans was best known for minority problems. Today, the most bitter conflicts are between parties that appeal to majority ethnic communities. As recent turbulence in Macedonia shows, Eastern Europe could face new dangers if majority populism ends the current stigma against separatism for oppressed small groups.
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